An Estimation of Target Effective Exchange Rates: The Case of the U.S.

1992 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Considerable Research ◽  
The Us ◽  
Effective Exchange

This paper derives optimal effective exchange rates, via loss-function minimization, for the US economy. The results attract considerable research interest; although it is generally believed that policy makers intervene only in infrequent emergency occasions in the foreign exchange market, this paper shows that the contrary is true; the US foreign exchange market is characterized by frequent central bank intervention.

scholarly journals Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The 1960S

Abstract The effectiveness of central bank intervention is debated and despite literature showing mixed results, central banks regularly intervene in the foreign exchange market, both in developing and developed economies. Does foreign exchange intervention work? Using over 60,000 new daily observations on intervention and exchange rates, this paper is the first to study the Bank of England's foreign exchange intervention between 1952 and 1972. The main finding is that the Bank was unsuccessful in managing a credible exchange rate over that period. Running an event study, I demonstrate that betting systematically against the Bank of England would have been a profitable trading strategy. Pressures increased in the 1960s and the Bank eventually manipulated the publication of its reserve figures to avoid a run on sterling.

scholarly journals Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The 1960S

The effectiveness of central bank intervention is debated and despite literature showing mixed results, central banks regularly intervene in the foreign exchange market, both in developing and developed economies. Does foreign exchange intervention work? Using over 60,000 new daily observations on intervention and exchange rates, this paper is the first study of the Bank of England’s foreign exchange intervention between 1952 and 1972. The main finding is that the Bank of England was unsuccessful in managing a credible exchange rate over that period. Running an event study, I demonstrate that betting systematically against the Bank of England would have been a profitable trading strategy. Pressures increased in the 1960s and the Bank eventually manipulated the publication of its reserve figures to avoid a run on sterling.

scholarly journals Efficiency of the Black Foreign Exchange Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Ali Farhan Chaudhry ◽  
Mian Muhammd Hanif ◽  
Sameera Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Irfan Chani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Policy Makers

This empirical study is first of its nature to examine the weak-form of efficiency for unofficial foreign exchange market of Pakistan proxied by Japanese Yen (JPY/PKR), Swiss Franc (CHF/PKR), British Pound (GBP/PKR), and US Dollar (USD/PKR) exchange rates. For this we have employed Ljung Box Q-test, unit root tests including Dickey-Fuller (Dickey 1979), Augmented Dickey-Fuller (Dickey 1981) tests and Phillips and Perron (1988) test, Durbin Watson test, Runs-test, and Variance ratio test by using unofficial foreign exchange rate time series of Yen/PKR, CHF/PKR, GBP/PKR and USD/PKR from 1994M07 to 2001M06. Empirical results lead to the conclusion that the unofficial foreign exchange market of Pakistan is weak-form efficiency. The implications of this empirical research are of great importance for designing foreign exchange policy i.e. policy makers (be it accounting, export/import or public policy makers) are to consider fluctuations in unofficial foreign exchange rates while designing official foreign exchange rate policy of developing country like Pakistan. Further, policymakers can enhance the efficiency of official foreign exchange market by intervention subject to a widening of unofficial foreign exchange premium beyond a certain limit in developing countries like Pakistan.

Optimistic and pessimistic economic sentiments and US Dollar exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.

Devisenmarktoperationen und Informationspolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-68
Author(s):  
Michael Frenkel ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch ◽  
Georg Stadtmann
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Information Policy ◽  
Transmission Channel ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
European Central ◽  
Transmission Channels ◽  
Market Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market Intervention

AbstractThis paper analyzes the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market interventions of the European Central Bank (ECB) by studying the information policy of the ECB and examining whether the ECB relied on a specific transmission channel to influence exchange rates. Against the background of a discussion of the transmission channels through which foreign exchange market interventions of central banks may affect exchange rates, we are led to the conclusion that the information policy of the ECB was not in line with the assumptions underlying the transmission channels discussed in the theoretical literature. We argue that this finding could provide a possible explanation for the ineffectiveness of the ECB's foreign exchange market intervention in the fall of 2000.

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