scholarly journals Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The 1960S

Abstract The effectiveness of central bank intervention is debated and despite literature showing mixed results, central banks regularly intervene in the foreign exchange market, both in developing and developed economies. Does foreign exchange intervention work? Using over 60,000 new daily observations on intervention and exchange rates, this paper is the first to study the Bank of England's foreign exchange intervention between 1952 and 1972. The main finding is that the Bank was unsuccessful in managing a credible exchange rate over that period. Running an event study, I demonstrate that betting systematically against the Bank of England would have been a profitable trading strategy. Pressures increased in the 1960s and the Bank eventually manipulated the publication of its reserve figures to avoid a run on sterling.

scholarly journals Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The 1960S

The effectiveness of central bank intervention is debated and despite literature showing mixed results, central banks regularly intervene in the foreign exchange market, both in developing and developed economies. Does foreign exchange intervention work? Using over 60,000 new daily observations on intervention and exchange rates, this paper is the first study of the Bank of England’s foreign exchange intervention between 1952 and 1972. The main finding is that the Bank of England was unsuccessful in managing a credible exchange rate over that period. Running an event study, I demonstrate that betting systematically against the Bank of England would have been a profitable trading strategy. Pressures increased in the 1960s and the Bank eventually manipulated the publication of its reserve figures to avoid a run on sterling.

scholarly journals How Powerful Is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef ◽  
Jacob Weber
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention

Though most central banks actively intervene on the foreign exchange market, the literature offers mixed evidence on their effectiveness: particularly for unannounced interventions. We use new, declassified data from the archives of the Bank of England and the institutional features of the Bretton Woods era to estimate the effects of intervention on the exchange rate. We find that a purchase of pounds equivalent to 1% of the money supply causes a statistically significant, 4-5 basis point appreciation in the pound.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
pp. 28-35
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Monetary Economics ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
International Money

Adewuyi, (2002). Balance of Payments Constraints and Growth Rate Differences under Alternative Police Regimes. Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) Monograph Series No. 10, Ibadan, Nigeria. Adebiyi, M. A. (2007). An Evaluation of Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Aggregates in Nigeria (1986-2003). The University of Munich Finance Journal, 4 (2),1-19. Aghin, P.; Bacchetta, P.; Ranciere, R. & Rogoff, K. (2006). Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56 (4), 494–51. Bonser-Neal, C. & Tanner, G. (1996). Central Bank Intervention and Volatility of Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Options Market. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18 (2), 23-45. Dominguez, K. (1990). Market Responses to Coordinated Central Bank Intervention. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 32 Dominguez, K. (1998). Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility. Journal of International and Finance, 15 (4). Dominguez, K & Frankel, J. A. (1993). Does Foreign Exchange Intervention matter? The Portfolio effect. American Economic Review, 83 (5), 231-259 Dubas, J.M., Lee, B.J., & Mark, N.C. (2005). Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 11272 Frankel, J.A. ((1992). In search of the Exchange rate Premium: A Six-Currency Test assuming mean-variance optimization. Journal of International Money and Finance,1(2),19-32 Gosh, A. (1992). Is it Signinaling? Exchange Rate intervention and the Dollar Deutssche-Mark Rate. Journal of International Economics, 32(4), 45-67 Granger, C.W.J. & Newbold, P. 1974). Spurious regression in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics 2 (4) 111-120. Harris R.G. (2002). New Economy and the Exchange Rate Regime. Centre for International Economics Studies, Discussion paper, No 111. Humpage, O. (1989). On the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Kaminsky, G & Lewis, K (1996). Does Foreign Exchange Intervention signal future monetary policy? Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(2), 66-89 Nwankwo (G.O) (1980). Money and capital markets in Nigeria Today. University of Lagos Press, Nigeria. Odusola A.F. and Akinlo, A.E. (2001). Output, Inflation, and Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: An Application to Nigeria. Developing Economies, 39(2). Oloyede, J. A. (2002). Principles of International Finance. Forthright Educational Publishers, Lagos. Rano-Aliyu S.U. (2009). Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. Research Journal of International Studies 10(4) 23-45. Rognoff, K. (1984). The effects of sterilized intervention: An analysis of weekly data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2 (2), 14-34. Sarno, L. & Taylor, M. P. (2001). Official intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is it effective, and if so, how does it work? Journal of Economic Literature, 3(1), 39-56. Simatele, M.C.H.(2003). Financial Sector Reforms and Monetary Policy in Zambia. Ph.D Dissertation, Economics Studies, Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Goteborg University. Unugbro, A.O (2007). The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Capital Inflow: The Nigerian Experience. The Nigeria Academic Journal of Social Sciences, 6(4),1-21

An Estimation of Target Effective Exchange Rates: The Case of the U.S.

1992 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Considerable Research ◽  
The Us ◽  
Effective Exchange

This paper derives optimal effective exchange rates, via loss-function minimization, for the US economy. The results attract considerable research interest; although it is generally believed that policy makers intervene only in infrequent emergency occasions in the foreign exchange market, this paper shows that the contrary is true; the US foreign exchange market is characterized by frequent central bank intervention.

scholarly journals Managing the Dollar Over Its Cycles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence L. Kreicher ◽  
Robert N. McCauley
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Service Production ◽  
Withholding Tax ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThe United States has ceded to the rest of the world managing the dollar’s value. For a generation, the U.S. authorities have all but withdrawn from the foreign exchange market. Yet the dollar does not float freely as a result of this hands-off U.S. policy. Instead, other authorities manage the dollar exchange rates, albeit separately. These authorities make heavier purchases of dollars in its downswings than in the upswings, damping its decline. Thus, the Fed finds that accommodative monetary policy transmits less to U.S. manufacturing and traded services, and relies on still lower rates to stimulate interest-sensitive housing and auto demand. The current U.S. dollar policy of naming and shaming surplus-running countries accumulating foreign exchange reserves does not seem to work. Three alternatives warrant consideration. First, the U.S. could reinstate its withholding tax on interest income received by non-residents and even add policy criteria to bilateral tax treaties. Second, the U.S. authorities could retaliate by selling dollars against the currencies of dollar-buying jurisdictions running chronic surpluses. However, either the withholding tax or such retaliatory foreign exchange intervention pose huge practical challenges. Third, the U.S. authorities could re-enter the foreign exchange market, making large-scale asset purchases in foreign currency when the dollar rises sharply against its average value. Such a policy would encourage private investment in U.S. traded goods and service production. The challenge is to set ex ante foreign exchange intervention rules to guide market participants’ expectations, even positioning them to do the authorities’ work.

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