Leaning against the Bubble: Central Bank Intervention in Walrasian Asset Markets

The paper presents a two-period Walrasian financial market model composed of informed and uninformed rational investors, and noise traders. The rational investors maximize second period consumption utility from the payoffs of trading risk-free holdings to risky assets in the first period. The central bank reacts directly to asset price movements by selling or buying assets to stabilize the market price. It is found that the intervention makes the risky asset’s market price per share less sensitive to information shocks, which presses the market price towards its average price thus reducing price variance. The informed investors’ prediction coefficient remains unaffected, but that of the uninformed investors is magnified, which cancels out the negative effect on shock sensitivity thus keeping the expected value of the risky asset’s dividend constant. Finally, the introduction of the policy rule does not affect rational investors’ risk per share. A general conclusion is that the central bank’s policy can be regarded as an effective automatic stabilizer of financial markets.

Modeling Sources of Asymmetry in the Volatility of the Moroccan Dirham Exchange Rate

The main objective of this paper is to study the sources of asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral exchange rates of the Moroccan dirham (MAD), against the EUR and the USD using the asymmetric econometric models of the ARCH-GARCH family. An empirical analysis was conducted on daily central bank data from March 2003 to March 2021, with a sample size of 4575 observations. Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange (interbank) market was found to affect the asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral EUR/MAD and USD/MAD exchange rates. Specifically, sales of foreign exchange reserves by the monetary authority cause a fall in the exchange rate, which means that the market response to shocks is asymmetric. Finally, the selection criterion (AIC) allowed us to conclude that the asymmetric model AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) is adequate for modeling the volatility of the exchange rate of the Moroccan dirham.

Strategic Trading When Central Bank Intervention Is Predictable

Market prices are noisy signals of economic fundamentals. In a two-period model, we show that if the central bank uses market prices as guidance for intervention, large, strategic investors who benefit from high prices would depress market prices to induce a market-supportive intervention. Stronger anticipated interventions lead to deeper price depressions preintervention and sharper price reversals post- intervention. The central bank intervention harms strategic investors even though it is the investors who tried to mislead the central bank. The model predicts a V-shaped price pattern around central bank interventions, consistent with recent evidence. (JEL G14, G18)

Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market

The effectiveness of central bank intervention is debated and despite literature showing mixed results, central banks regularly intervene in the foreign exchange market, both in developing and developed economies. Does foreign exchange intervention work? Using over 60,000 new daily observations on intervention and exchange rates, this paper is the first study of the Bank of England’s foreign exchange intervention between 1952 and 1972. The main finding is that the Bank of England was unsuccessful in managing a credible exchange rate over that period. Running an event study, I demonstrate that betting systematically against the Bank of England would have been a profitable trading strategy. Pressures increased in the 1960s and the Bank eventually manipulated the publication of its reserve figures to avoid a run on sterling.

LAS REMESAS INTERNACIONALES: ¿ESTABILIZADOR AUTOMÁTICO O SÚPERMULTIPLICADOR DE LA POLÍTICA FISCAL?

<p align="center"><strong>RESUMEN</strong></p><p>En este trabajo analizamos cómo impactan las remesas en la economía de un país receptor por el lado de la oferta y el de la demanda, insertándolas en un modelo estático neokeynesiano con precios flexibles. Demostramos que las remesas también repercuten en la efectividad de las políticas económicas y de sus multiplicadores dependiendo del grado de intervención del Banco Central en el mercado de divisas. Eso nos permite definir distintos escenarios macroeconómicos, cada uno con sus propias implicaciones de política económica.</p><p><strong> </strong></p><p align="center">INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES: AN ECONOMIC STABILIZER</p><p align="center">OR A FISCAL POLICY SUPER MULTIPLIER?</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong><strong></strong></p><p>In this paper the impact of remittances on a recipient economy’s supply and demand sides is analyzed considering a static model with flexible prices. It is shown that remittances affect both the effectiveness of economic policies and their multipliers. This effect is also shown to depend on the degree of Central Bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. This allows us to define different macroeconomic scenarios, each with different economic policy implications.</p>

Commodities, Futures, Options, and Swaps, 1970–92

One of the most dynamic financial markets to appear after 1970 was the trading of derivatives. Prior to 1970 the fixed nature of both interest rates and exchange rates, because of government controls and central bank intervention, limited the need to cover risks in these areas. With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s both interest rates and exchange rates experienced rising volatility, forcing banks to turn to derivatives as one way to coping. Governments of countries also began relaxing the prohibition on the trading of futures contracts that had been introduced in the past as a way of coping with destabilizing speculation. The commodity exchanges responded to these opportunities by devising contracts that allowed users to cover risks in financial markets as had already been done for such products as wheat, copper, and, later, oil. Leading these developments were the Chicago commodity exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange but numerous contracts were also traded in the Over-the-Counter (OTC) market, directly between banks or through interdealer brokers.

Islamic Bank Safety Net Issues: The Regulatory Challenges for Cross Border Islamic Banking Transactions

This paper aims to identify major regulatory challenges in the safety net for providing insurances to the depositors in the cross-border transaction over the world. The study found that Islamic banking is facing major challenges to issue appropriate rules and regulations for providing the right safety against the deposit of customers with a conventional counterpart base on the Islamic shariah principles. Especially in the area of “chartering or licensing function, prudential regulation and supervision, deposits in the central bank, intervention and resolution mechanisms and capital adequacy standard” for safety net issues of Islamic Bank. The study recommended that the policymakers need to pay heed in a deliberate and intentional way to solve the above regulatory issues to face the existing challenges for the smooth operation and bright prospect of the Islamic Banking sector in the future. JEL Classification Codes: G21, G24, L26, P51.

‘Manna from heaven’: does the presence of central banks make technical analysis profitable?

Profitability of technical-analysis strategies has been explained with reference to central-bank intervention in markets (Neely 1998; LeBaron 1999; Saacke 2002). I argue that central-bank intervention is a market shock which leads to a generation of trends, making technical analysis profitable. Looking at empirical evidence from the Indian foreign-exchange market, I find returns calculated for the entire period are consistently and substantially higher than when intervention periods are removed. Thirteen out of the 15 strategies demonstrate higher returns with intervention periods included, compared to without intervention periods. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov sample tests show statistically significant differences in the returns between the entire period and the without-intervention period for four strategies, which is confirmed by bootstrap estimation. The paper contributes first by including actual trading strategies in the empirical testing of profitability of technical analysis and second by emphasizing the efficacy of technical analysis rather than the action of the central bank itself in explaining profitability, in a departure from the existing literature.