Variabilities in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 141a1-141a9 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mostafa Mousavi ◽  
Gregory C. Beroza ◽  
Susan M. Hoover
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

scholarly journals Estimating Annualized Earthquake Losses for the Conterminous United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. S221-S243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kishor S. Jaiswal ◽  
Douglas Bausch ◽  
Rui Chen ◽  
Jawhar Bouabid ◽  
Hope Seligson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Earthquake Loss

We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated Census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous United States has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012 dollars), roughly 80%of which can be attributed to the states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10% to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic states of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for the Central and Eastern United States.

Effect of Time Dependence on Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Maps and Deaggregation for the Central Apennines, Italy

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (2A) ◽  
pp. 585-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Akinci ◽  
F. Galadini ◽  
D. Pantosti ◽  
M. Petersen ◽  
L. Malagnini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Time Dependence ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Central Apennines ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for California do not perform better relative to historical shaking data when site-specific VS30 is considered

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Gallahue ◽  
Leah Salditch ◽  
Madeleine Lucas ◽  
James Neely ◽  
Susan Hough ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Tall Buildings ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Intensity Mapping ◽  
Aleatory Variability

<div> <p>Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments forecast levels of earthquake shaking that should be exceeded with only a certain probability over a given period of time are important for earthquake hazard mitigation. These rely on assumptions about when and where earthquakes will occur, their size, and the resulting shaking as a function of distance as described by ground-motion models (GMMs) that cover broad geologic regions. Seismic hazard maps are used to develop building codes.</p> </div><div> <p>To explore the robustness of maps’ shaking forecasts, we consider how maps hindcast past shaking. We have compiled the California Historical Intensity Mapping Project (CHIMP) dataset of the maximum observed seismic intensity of shaking from the largest Californian earthquakes over the past 162 years. Previous comparisons between the maps for a constant V<sub>S30</sub> (shear-wave velcoity in the top 30 m of soil) of 760 m/s and CHIMP based on several metrics suggested that current maps overpredict shaking.</p> <p>The differences between the V<sub>S30</sub> at the CHIMP sites and the reference value of 760 m/s could amplify or deamplify the ground motions relative to the mapped values. We evaluate whether the V<sub>S30 </sub>at the CHIMP sites could cause a possible bias in the models. By comparison with the intensity data in CHIMP, we find that using site-specific V<sub>S30</sub> does not improve map performance, because the site corrections cause only minor differences from the original 2018 USGS hazard maps at the short periods (high frequencies) relevant to peak ground acceleration and hence MMI. The minimal differences reflect the fact that the nonlinear deamplification due to increased soil damping largely offsets the linear amplification due to low V<sub>S30</sub>. The net effects will be larger for longer periods relevant to tall buildings, where net amplification occurs. </p> <div> <p>Possible reasons for this discrepancy include limitations of the dataset, a bias in the hazard models, an over-estimation of the aleatory variability of the ground motion or that seismicity throughout the historical period has been lower than the long-term average, perhaps by chance due to the variability of earthquake recurrence. Resolving this discrepancy, which is also observed in Italy and Japan, could improve the performance of seismic hazard maps and thus earthquake safety for California and, by extension, worldwide. We also explore whether new nonergodic GMMs, with reduced aleatory variability, perform better than presently used ergodic GMMs compared to historical data.</p> </div> </div>

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Panama

1991 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Aristoteles Vergara Mu�oz
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Exposure Analysis Using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 861-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuoto Nojima ◽  
◽  
Satoshi Fujikawa ◽  
Yutaka Ishikawa ◽  
Toshihiko Okumura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Exposure Analysis

With the aim of better understanding and more effective utilization of probabilistic seismic hazard maps in Japan, exposure analysis has been carried out by combining hazard maps with population distribution maps. Approximately 80% of the population of Japan is exposed to a relatively high seismic hazard, i.e., a 3% probability of exceeding JMAseismic intensity 6 lower within 30 years. In highly populated areas, specifically in major metropolitan areas, seismic hazard tends to relatively high because of the site amplification effects of holocene deposits. In implementing earthquake disaster mitigation measures, it is important to consider the overlapping effect of seismic hazard and demographic distributions.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman

2012 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. El-Hussain ◽  
A. Deif ◽  
K. Al-Jabri ◽  
N. Toksoz ◽  
S. El-Hady ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Sultanate Of Oman ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps
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