Recent Changes in Average Recurrence Interval Precipitation Extremes in the Middle-Atlantic United States

Increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence have emerged as one of the more consistent climate trends in recent decades, particularly in the eastern United States. Such changes challenge the veracity of the conventional assumption of stationarity that has been applied in the published extreme rainfall analyses that are the foundation for engineering design assessments and resiliency planning. Using partial duration series with varying record lengths, temporal changes in daily and hourly rainfall extremes corresponding to average annual recurrence probabilities ranging from 50% (i.e. the 2-year storm) to 1% (i.e. the 100-year storm) are evaluated. From 2000 through 2019, extreme rainfall amounts across a range of durations and recurrence probabilities have increased at 75% of the long-term precipitation observation stations in the Middle-Atlantic region. At about a quarter of the stations, increases in extreme rainfall have exceeded 5% from 2000 through 2019, with some stations experiencing increases in excess of 10% for both daily and hourly durations. At over 40% of the stations the rainfall extremes based on the 1950-1999 partial duration series show a significant (p >0.90) change in the 100-yr ARI relative to the 1950-2019 period. Collectively the results indicate that given recent trends in extreme rainfall, routine updates of extreme rainfall analyses are warranted on 20-year intervals.

Westward Expansion by Juniperus virginiana of the Eastern United States and Intersection with Western Juniperus Species in a Novel Assemblage

Eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) is increasing in density in the eastern United States and expanding in range to the west, while western Juniperus species also are increasing and expanding, creating the potential for a novel assemblage. I estimated range expansion and intersection by comparing recent USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis surveys (mean year = 2009) to the oldest available surveys (mean year = 1981), with adjustments for sampling changes, and predicted climate envelopes during the following year ranges: 1500–1599, 1800–1849, 1850–1899, 1900–1949, and 1960–1989. During approximately 28 years, eastern redcedar range expanded by about 54 million ha (based on ≥0.5% of total stems ≥12.7 cm in diameter in ecological subsections). Combined range of western species of juniper did not expand. Range intersection of eastern redcedar and western Juniperus species totaled 200,000 km2 and increased by 31,600 km2 over time, representing a novel assemblage of eastern and western species. Predicted ranges during the other time intervals were 94% to 98% of predicted area during 1960–1989, suggesting major climate conditions have been suitable for centuries. The southern western Juniperus species and Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum Sarg.) have the greatest potential for intersection with eastern redcedar, whereas eastern redcedar may have concluded westward expansion.

A genetic switch for male UV iridescence in an incipient species pair of sulphur butterflies

Mating cues evolve rapidly and can contribute to species formation and maintenance. However, little is known about how sexual signals diverge and how this variation integrates with other barrier loci to shape the genomic landscape of reproductive isolation. Here, we elucidate the genetic basis of ultraviolet (UV) iridescence, a courtship signal that differentiates the males of Colias eurytheme butterflies from a sister species, allowing females to avoid costly heterospecific matings. Anthropogenic range expansion of the two incipient species established a large zone of secondary contact across the eastern United States with strong signatures of genomic admixtures spanning all autosomes. In contrast, Z chromosomes are highly differentiated between the two species, supporting a disproportionate role of sex chromosomes in speciation known as the large-X (or large-Z) effect. Within this chromosome-wide reproductive barrier, linkage mapping indicates that cis-regulatory variation of bric a brac (bab) underlies the male UV-iridescence polymorphism between the two species. Bab is expressed in all non-UV scales, and butterflies of either species or sex acquire widespread ectopic iridescence following its CRISPR knockout, demonstrating that Bab functions as a suppressor of UV-scale differentiation that potentiates mating cue divergence. These results highlight how a genetic switch can regulate a premating signal and integrate with other reproductive barriers during intermediate phases of speciation.

Statistical analysis reveals the onset of synchrony in sparse swarms of Photinus knulli fireflies

Flash synchrony within firefly swarms is an elegant but elusive manifestation of collective animal behaviour. It has been observed, and sometimes demonstrated, in a few populations across the world, but exactly which species are capable of large-scale synchronization remains unclear, especially in low-density swarms. The underlying question which we address here is: how does one qualify a collective flashing display as synchronous, given that the only information available is the time and location of flashes? We propose different statistical approaches and apply them to high-resolution stereoscopic video recordings of the collective flashing of Photinus knulli fireflies, hence establishing the occurrence of synchrony in this species. These results substantiate detailed visual observations published in the early 1980s and made at the same experimental site: Peña Blanca Canyon, Coronado National Forest, Arizona, USA. We also remark that P. knulli's collective flashing patterns mirror that observed in Photinus carolinus fireflies in the Eastern United States, consisting of synchronous flashes in periodic bursts with rapid accretion and quick decay.

A Roadmap for Participatory Chestnut Breeding for Nut Production in the Eastern United States

Chestnut cultivation for nut production is increasing in the eastern half of the United States. Chinese chestnuts (Castanea mollissima Blume), or Chinese hybrids with European (C. sativa Mill.) and Japanese chestnuts (C. crenata Sieb. & Zucc.), are cultivated due to their high kernel quality, climatic adaptation, and disease resistance. Several hundred thousand pounds of high-quality fresh nuts are taken to market every fall, and several hundred additional orchards are entering bearing years. Grower-led on-farm improvement has largely facilitated this growth. A lack of significant investments in chestnut breeding in the region, paired with issues of graft incompatibility, has led many growers to cultivate seedlings of cultivars rather than grafted cultivars. After decades of evaluation, selection, and sharing of plant materials, growers have reached a threshold of improvement where commercial seedling orchards can be reliably established by planting offspring from elite selected parents. Growers recognize that if cooperation persists and university expertise and resources are enlisted, improvement can continue and accelerate. To this end, the University of Missouri Center for Agroforestry (UMCA) and chestnut growers throughout the eastern United States are partnering to formalize a participatory breeding program – the Chestnut Improvement Network. This partnership entails the UMCA providing an organizational structure and leadership to coordinate on-farm improvement, implement strategic crossing schemes, and integrate genetic tools. Chestnut growers offer structural capacity by cultivating seedling production orchards that provide financial support for the grower but also house segregating populations with improved individuals, in situ repositories, and selection trials, creating great value for the industry.

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Chionanthus virginicus

The genus Chionanthus, known as fringetrees, is a member of the olive family (Oleaceae). Chionanthus virginicus is an understory tree or shrub with a wide range in forests of the eastern United States and is used as an ornamental tree that is known to be free of insects and disease in the wild. The species is tolerant of a wide range of environmental conditions, and there is interest in developing new cultivars with improved horticultural traits, such as tree form or upright growth habit and superior flowering display that are widely adapted. To identify genepools in the native range of C. virginicus for use in breeding programs, the genetic diversity and population structure were assessed for 274 individuals from 12 locations in four states (Florida, Maryland, North Carolina, and Texas) using 26 simple sequence repeats (SSRs). An average of 12.54 alleles/locus were detected, allelic richness averaged 2.80. Genetic differentiation was 0.11, indicating moderate differentiation among subpopulations. Despite the high genetic diversity and low population differentiation, Bayesian clustering analysis identified six genetic groups that match the geographic distribution of collection sites. Analysis of molecular variance indicated that most (82%) of the variation is explained within individuals, and 11% and 7% of the variation is due to differences among individuals within populations and among populations. Analysis of isolation by distance across all samples showed a weak positive relationship between geographic distance and genetic distance. The C. virginicus samples analyzed in this study indicate there is sufficient diversity for germplasm collection for use in breeding programs. Given the relatively moderate genetic differentiation, there are not likely to be unique islands of genetic diversity that may be missed when gathering parental materials for a breeding program

Relationship Between Riparian Buffers and Terrestrial Wildlife in the Eastern United States

When working forest stands are harvested, vegetated strips along streams are often retained as part of forestry best management practices (BMPs) to protect water quality. These riparian buffers, known as streamside management zones, when following forestry BMP recommendations, also likely provide benefits to various terrestrial wildlife species. To better understand the role of riparian buffers in contributing to biological diversity in working forest landscapes, we reviewed literature (n = 30) that reported on herpetofauna, bird, and mammal responses to riparian buffers in the eastern United States. Although few results were consistent among taxa, community composition commonly varied among riparian buffer widths. Narrower riparian buffers more commonly supported edge and disturbance-associated species whereas wider riparian buffers tended to support interior-associated species. We did not find a consistent width that supported all terrestrial wildlife species studied. Study Implications: Based on our findings, it may be most efficacious to use varying riparian buffer widths across a landscape to provide structural conditions for a diversity of wildlife species. Some interior species may be best conserved on older managed stands or other retained areas in the landscape rather than riparian buffers. Landscape context and functionality of riparian buffers as movement corridors need to be further investigated, as this is an assumed but not quantified indirect benefit for various terrestrial wildlife species and perhaps especially important for species with low vagility or low dispersal ability that require older forest or riparian areas.

Genome-Wide Sequence-Based Genotyping Supports a Nonhybrid Origin of Castanea alabamensis

Abstract— The genus Castanea in North America contains several tree and shrub taxa of conservation concern. The two species within the group, American chestnut (Castanea dentata) and chinquapin (C. pumila sensu lato), display remarkable morphological diversity across their distributions in the eastern United States and southern Ontario. Previous investigators have hypothesized that hybridization between C. dentata and C. pumila has played an important role in generating morphological variation in wild populations. A putative hybrid taxon, Castanea alabamensis, was identified in northern Alabama in the early 20th century; however, the question of its hybridity has been unresolved. We tested the hypothesized hybrid origin of C. alabamensis using genome-wide sequence-based genotyping of C. alabamensis, all currently recognized North American Castanea taxa, and two Asian Castanea species at > 100,000 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci. With these data, we generated a high-resolution phylogeny, tested for admixture among taxa, and analyzed population genetic structure of the study taxa. Bayesian clustering and principal components analysis provided no evidence of admixture between C. dentata and C. pumila in C. alabamensis genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of genome-wide SNP data indicated that C. alabamensis forms a distinct group within C. pumila sensu lato. Our results are consistent with the model of a nonhybrid origin for C. alabamensis. Our finding of C. alabamensis as a genetically and morphologically distinct group within the North American chinquapin complex provides further impetus for the study and conservation of the North American Castanea species.

Responses of ticks to immersion in hot bathing water: Effect of surface type, water temperature, and soap on tick motor control

Preventing bites from undetected ticks through bathing practices would benefit public health, but the effects of these practices have been researched minimally. We immersed nymphal and adult hard ticks of species common in the eastern United States in tap water, using temperatures and durations that are realistic for human hot bathing. The effect of (a) different skin-equivalent surfaces (silicone and pig skin), and (b) water temperature was tested on Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis and Ixodes scapularis nymphs. Overall, the type of surface had a much larger effect on the nymphs’ tendency to stay in contact with the surface than water temperature did. Most nymphs that separated from the surface did so within the first 10 s of immersion, with the majority losing contact due to the formation of an air bubble between their ventral side and the test surface. In addition, adult Ixodes scapularis were tested for the effect of immersion time, temperature, and soap on tick responsiveness. Some individual adults moved abnormally or stopped moving as a result of longer or hotter immersion, but soap had little effect on responsiveness. Taken together, our results suggest that the surface plays a role in ticks’ tendency to stay in contact; the use of different bath additives warrants further research. While water temperature did not have a significant short-term effect on tick separation, ticks that have not attached by their mouth parts may be rendered unresponsive and eventually lose contact with a person’s skin in a hot bath. It should be noted that our research did not consider potential temperature effects on the pathogens themselves, as previous research suggests that some tickborne pathogens may become less hazardous even if the tick harboring them survives hot-water exposures and later bites the bather after remaining undetected.

Synthesizing Disparate LiDAR and Satellite Datasets through Deep Learning to Generate Wall-to-Wall Regional Inventories for the Complex, Mixed-Species Forests of the Eastern United States

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has become a commonly-used tool for generating remotely-sensed forest inventories. However, LiDAR-derived forest inventories have remained uncommon at a regional scale due to varying parameters among LiDAR data acquisitions and the availability of sufficient calibration data. Here, we present a model using a 3-D convolutional neural network (CNN), a form of deep learning capable of scanning a LiDAR point cloud, combined with coincident satellite data (spectral, phenology, and disturbance history). We compared this approach to traditional modeling used for making forest predictions from LiDAR data (height metrics and random forest) and found that the CNN had consistently lower uncertainty. We then applied the CNN to public data over six New England states in the USA, generating maps of 14 forest attributes at a 10 m resolution over 85% of the region. Aboveground biomass estimates produced a root mean square error of 36 Mg ha−1 (44%) and were within the 97.5% confidence of independent county-level estimates for 33 of 38 or 86.8% of the counties examined. CNN predictions for stem density and percentage of conifer attributes were moderately successful, while predictions for detailed species groupings were less successful. The approach shows promise for improving the prediction of forest attributes from regional LiDAR data and for combining disparate LiDAR datasets into a common framework for large-scale estimation.