Dynamic Models for Time Series of Counts with a Marketing Application

2016 ◽  
pp. 445-466
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leopoldo Catania ◽  
Eduardo Rossi ◽  
Paolo Santucci de Magistris

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus B. Beckmann ◽  
Lennart Reimer

This monograph generalises, and extends, the classic dynamic models in conflict analysis (Lanchester 1916, Richardson 1919, Boulding 1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peacekeeping. Incrementalist as well as stochastic versions of the model are reviewed. These extensions allow for a rich variety of patterns of dynamic conflict. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998–2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that linear dynamic models capture selected phases of the conflict quite well, offering a potential taxonomy for conflict dynamics. We also discuss a method for introducing a modicum of (bounded) rationality into models from this tradition.


Technometrics ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-158
Author(s):  
Errol Caby
Keyword(s):  

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