scholarly journals Choice Inconsistencies among the Elderly: Evidence from Plan Choice in the Medicare Part D Program

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (4) ◽  
pp. 1180-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Abaluck ◽  
Jonathan Gruber

We evaluate the choices of elders across their insurance options under the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug plan, using a unique dataset of prescription drug claims matched to information on the characteristics of choice sets. We document that elders place much more weight on plan premiums than on expected out-of-pocket costs; value plan financial characteristics beyond any impacts on their own financial expenses or risk; and place almost no value on variance-reducing aspects of plans. Partial equilibrium welfare analysis implies that welfare would have been 27 percent higher if patients had all chosen rationally. (JEL D12, I11, J14)

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207
Author(s):  
Cheryl D Stults ◽  
Alison Baskin ◽  
Ming Tai-Seale ◽  
M. Kate Bundorf

2007 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1735-1744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank R. Lichtenberg ◽  
Shawn X. Sun

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Abaluck ◽  
Jonathan Gruber

This paper investigates the degree to which choice inconsistencies documented in the context of Medicare Part D plan choice vary across consumers and geographic regions. Our main finding is that there is surprisingly little variation: regardless of age, gender, predicted drug expenditures or the predictability of drug demand consumers underweight out of pocket costs relative to premiums and fail to consider the individualized consequences of plan characteristics; as a result, they frequently choose plans which are dominated in the sense that an alternative plan provides better risk protection at a lower cost. We find limited evidence that the sickest individuals had more difficulty with plan choice, and we document that much of the variation in potential cost savings across states comes from variation in choice sets, not variation in consumers ability to choose.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith M. Marzilli Ericson

I use the Medicare Part D prescription drug insurance market to examine the dynamics of firm interaction with consumers on an insurance exchange. Enrollment data show that consumers face switching frictions leading to inertia in plan choice, and a regression discontinuity design indicates initial defaults have persistent effects. In the absence of commitment to future prices, theory predicts firms respond to inertia by raising prices on existing enrollees, while introducing cheaper alternative plans. The complete set of enrollment and price data from 2006 through 2010 confirms this prediction: older plans have approximately 10 percent higher premiums than comparable new plans. (JEL G22, I13, I18, L11, L65)


2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (12) ◽  
pp. 3932-3961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Ketcham ◽  
Nicolai V. Kuminoff ◽  
Christopher A. Powers

Consumers' enrollment decisions in Medicare Part D can be explained by Abaluck and Gruber's (2011) model of utility maximization with psychological biases or by a neoclassical version of their model that precludes such biases. We evaluate these competing hypotheses by applying nonparametric tests of utility maximization and model validation tests to administrative data. We find that 79 percent of enrollment decisions from 2006 to 2010 satisfied basic axioms of consumer theory under the assumption of full information. The validation tests provide evidence against widespread psychological biases. In particular, we find that precluding psychological biases improves the structural model's out-of-sample predictions for consumer behavior. (JEL C52, D12, I13, I18, J14)


2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 77-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary V Engelhardt ◽  
Jonathan Gruber

We examine the impact of the expansion of public prescription-drug insurance coverage from Medicare Part D and find evidence of substantial crowd-out. Using the 2002–2007 waves of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimate the extension of Part D benefits resulted in 75 percent crowd-out of both prescription-drug insurance coverage and expenditures of those 65 and older. Part D is associated with sizeable reductions in out-of-pocket spending, much of which has accrued to a small proportion of the elderly. On average, we estimate a welfare gain from Part D comparable to the deadweight cost of program financing. (JEL H51, I18, J14)


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