On the Determinants of Online Short Videos’ Effectiveness Relative to Parents’ Attitudes, Behavioural Intentions and Consideration of Alternatives

The purpose of this research is to examine the key content factors of short videos and their influence on parents’ attitudes, behavioural intentions and consideration of alternatives in the education sector. In particular, the current study is the first to explore elements of online short videos (informative content, user interactivity, perceived usefulness, trust, entertainment and invasiveness) as predictors of parents’ attitudes toward, consideration of and intention to choose a nursery school. Using a sample of 178 participants, a conclusive research design applying structural equation modelling was employed to assess the effect of the aforementioned short videos’ key characteristics on attitude, intention and consideration. According to the results, short videos with informative and trusted content tend to enhance parents’ attitudes, consideration and behavioural intentions regarding the provider being promoted. Attitude is also affected by entertainment, while perceived usefulness, interactive features and lack of invasiveness increase scores pertaining to inclusion of alternatives in parents’ consideration choice sets and expression of intentions to ultimately select them. Managers in childcare operators should find a delicate balance among the aforementioned elements in order to include the appropriate ones into their videos depending on the promotional goals or indented outcomes and the targeted audience. Managerial implications and suggestions for future research are thoroughly discussed.

Two Options for the Branching of Histories

The chapter discusses how the histories in a common BST structure are related. By the axioms of the core theory of BST, any two histories share some past, but there are different ways to implement this. These are distinguished by the so-called prior choice principles, which make specific demands on the way in which histories branch. On one option (which yields structures of BST92), histories branch, or remain undivided, at points, which means that there is a maximal element in the overlap of any two histories. The other option (which yields BSTNF structures) prohibits the existence of such maximal elements and works with so-called choice sets. The chapter discusses the pattern of branching in the two theories, BST92 and BSTNF, also with respect to topology. As it turns out, the two theories are are intertranslatable. The chapter ends with a sketch of these translatability results.

The Poliheuristic Theory of Crisis Decision Making and Applied Decision Analysis

Poliheuristic theory addresses the “why” and “how” of decision making. It focuses on how decision makers use heuristics en route to choice by addressing both the process and the choice related to the decision task. More specifically, decision makers use a two-stage process wherein a more complicated choice set is reduced to one that is more manageable through the use of these heuristics, or cognitive shortcuts. In the second stage, decision makers are more likely to employ maximizing and analytical strategies in making a choice. Poliheuristic theory also focuses on the political consequences of decision making, arguing that decision makers will refrain from making politically costly decisions. While poliheuristic theory helps us better understand how decision makers process information and make choices, it does not specifically address how choice sets and decision matrices were created in the first place. Applied decision analysis (ADA) rectifies this shortcoming by focusing on how leaders create particular choice sets and matrices and then how they arrive at a choice. It does so by first identifying the decision maker’s choice set or decision matrix; that is, the alternatives or options available to choose from as well as the criteria or dimensions upon which the options will be evaluated. ADA then focuses on uncovering the decision maker’s decision code through the use of multiple decision models. Combining poliheuristic theory with ADA allows researchers to more fully explain decision making in general and crisis decision making in particular. An application of poliheuristic theory and ADA to decision making pertaining to the Fukushima nuclear disaster reveals that even in this high-stress crisis environment decision makers followed the two-stage process as predicted by poliheuristic theory. More specifically, in the first stage, decision makers simplified the decision task by resorting to cognitive heuristics (i.e., decision making shortcuts) to eliminate politically damaging alternatives such as voluntary evacuation. In the second stage, decision makers conducted a more analytical evaluation of the compulsory evacuation options.

Estimating Lost Sales for Substitutable Products with Uncertain On-Shelf Availability

Problem definition: We address the problem of how to estimate lost sales for substitutable products when there is no reliable on-shelf availability (OSA) information. Academic/practical relevance: We develop a novel approach to estimating lost sales using only sales data, a market share estimate, and an estimate of overall availability. We use the method to illustrate the negative consequences of using potentially inaccurate inventory records as indicators of availability. Methodology: We suggest a partially hidden Markov model of OSA to generate probabilistic choice sets and incorporate these probabilistic choice sets into the estimation of a multinomial logit demand model using a nested expectation-maximization algorithm. We highlight the importance of considering inventory reliability problems first through simulation and then by applying the procedure to a data set from a major U.S. retailer. Results: The simulations show that the method converges in seconds and produces estimates with similar or lower bias than state-of-the-art benchmarks. For the product category under consideration at the retailer, our procedure finds lost sales of around 3.0% compared with 0.2% when relying on the inventory record as an indicator of availability. Managerial implications: The method efficiently computes estimates that can be used to improve inventory management and guide managers on how to use their scarce resources to improve stocking execution. The research also shows that ignoring inventory record inaccuracies when estimating lost sales can produce substantially inaccurate estimates, which leads to incorrect parameters in supply chain planning.

Poliheuristic Theory in Strategic Interactions

This chapter extends poliheuristic theory to the analysis of leaders’ decisions in strategic interactions and offers a framework for the conduct of both ex-ante and ex-post analyses of such decisions. Using the case study of the United States and Russia with regard to the decision to dismantle Syria’s chemical arsenal in September 2013, the authors show that the leaders’ decision followed a two-step poliheuristic process consisting of 1) eliminating alternatives dissatisfactory on non-compensatory dimensions and 2) obtaining equilibrium for the reduced choice sets through a game-theoretic strategic interaction. The chapter also discusses and uses a new method of decision analysis, applied decision analysis.

Verringerung von Ammoniakemissionen durch Gülleansäuerung auf dem Feld: Teilnahmebereitschaft von Landwirten an Förderprogrammen

Im vorliegenden Artikel wurde mithilfe eines Discrete-Choice-Experiments bestimmt, welche Faktoren die Entscheidung von Landwirten beeinflussen, an einem hypothetischen Förderprogramm zur Ansäuerung von Gülle bei der Feldausbringung teilzunehmen. Bei der Gülleansäuerung handelt es sich um ein in Dänemark verbreitetes Verfahren zur Minderung von Ammoniakemissionen. Die Merkmale aus den Choice-Sets bildeten die Eigenschaften des Verfahrens (Emissionsminderung), der Finanzierung (Erstattung der zusätzlichen Kosten) und der gesetzlichen Regelungen (mindestens anzurechnende Stickstoffmenge, Erlass von Auflagen der Düngeverordnung) ab. Die Auswertung der Befragung erfolgte durch ein Mixed-Logit-Modell und die Schätzung latenter Klassen. Insgesamt zeigte sich eine sehr hohe Bereitschaft an möglichen Förderprogrammen teilzunehmen und das Verfahren zu nutzen. Die Entscheidung für die Gülleansäuerung wurde positiv von der zu erwartenden Emissionsreduktion und der Erstattung der zusätzlichen Kosten beeinflusst. Auch das Angebot, Gülle nicht einarbeiten zu müssen, wirkte sich positiv auf die Teilnahmebereitschaft aus. Die Vorgabe, den zusätzlich enthaltenden Stickstoff in der Düngebedarfsberechnung anzusetzen, senkte die Bereitschaft der Teilnahme.

All Options Are on the Table? Time Horizons and the Decision-Making Process in Conflict

This study explores how time horizons shape the decision-making process in international conflicts. I posit that leaders assess only a subset of the available policy options. The proposed decision-making model suggests that time horizons serve as a screening mechanism. Only policies that fit the actor's time horizon enter the choice set and can be eventually selected. Thus, variations in actors’ time horizons generate different choice sets in terms of size and composition. These different choice sets affect the identity of the selected policy. Using a two-phase experiment, I demonstrate that short time horizons reduce the choice set size and the type of options that are considered. The selection of the final policy is sensitive to the inherent trade-off in policy implications and to the composition of the choice set. These findings clarify the influence of time horizons on conflict choices within a two-phase decision process. It also explains why, facing international conflicts, political leaders are not likely to place all policy options “on the table.”

Penentuan Kriteria Pengunjung dalam Pemilihan Green Hotel di Kota Bandung Menggunakan Metode Discrete Choice Experiment dengan Desain Choice Sets Kombinatorial

This research discusses about planning of guest formulation in the selection of environmentally green hotels by using a 2k-p factorial fractional design and combinatorial choice sets on the Discrete Choice Experiment method. Discrete Choice Experiments is a quantitative method for survey-based respondents' preference assessment. This method asks respondents to choose the preferred choice from several alternative choices provided. With this method the authors will apply to the case of green hotel selection, because currently in the United States, investors are beginning to look at green building opportunities as a long-term investment in accordance with the operational costs of green buildings that are more efficient than conventional buildings. The concept of green building is one of the efforts to save energy that can be applied to a building. The material of this study is primary data by distributing questionnaires to respondents using voluntary sampling techniques. In this study, there are 8 independent variables consisting of 5 attribute variables and 3 respondent identity variables. This study aims to determine the criteria for visitors in choosing the most desirable green hotel. The results of this study are the results of green hotel research that is most sought after by visitors, namely hotels with quality luxury rooms, toiletries provided, visitors are required to improve the environment, there is the practice of using plastic on product packaging, and there is the use of lamps as well as energy-saving equipment. After further analysis of the demographics of respondents regarding the preference of the selected green hotel criteria for each respondent, and the results obtained at the time, gender, occupation and experience of staying in a green hotel together are not related to the involvement of the selected green hotel criteria chosen from each respondent. Abstrak. Skripsi ini membahas mengenai penentuan rancangan kriteria pengunjung dalam pemilihan hotel ramah lingkungan (green hotel) dengan menggunakan desain fractional factorial 2k-p dan choice sets kombinatorial pada metode Discrete Choice Experiment. Discrete Choice Experiment merupakan metode kuantitatif untuk menilai suatu preferensi seorang responden yang berbasis survei. Metode ini meminta responden untuk memilih pilihan yang diminati dari beberapa alternatif pilihan yang disediakan. Dengan metode ini penulis akan melakukan penerapan pada kasus pemilihan kriteria green hotel, karena saat ini di Amerika Serikat, para investor mulai melirik peluang green building sebagai investasi jangka panjang dikarenakan biaya operasional green building yang lebih hemat dibandingkan bangunan konvensional. Konsep green building merupakan salah satu upaya penghematan energi yang dapat diterapkan pada suatu gedung. Bahan dari penelitian ini merupakan data primer dengan melakukan penyebaran kuesioner kepada responden dengan menggunakan teknik sampling sukarela. Pada penelitian ini, terdapat 8 variabel independen yang terdiri dari 5 variabel atribut dan 3 variabel identitas responden. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kriteria pengunjung dalam memilih green hotel yang paling diminati. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah didapatkan kriteria green hotel yang paling diminati oleh pengunjung yaitu hotel dengan kualitas kamar mewah, perlengkapan mandi disediakan, pengunjung diwajibkan untuk menjaga lingkungan, ada praktik penggunaan plastik pada kemasan produk, dan ada penggunaan lampu juga peralatan hemat energi. Setelah itu dilakukan analisis lanjutan mengenai pengaruh dari demografi responden terhadap banyaknya keterpilihan kriteria green hotel terpilih pada setiap responden, dan diperoleh hasil bahwa usia, jenis kelamin, pekerjaan dan pengalaman menginap di green hotel secara bersama-sama tidak berpengaruh terhadap banyaknya keterpilihan kriteria green hotel terpilih dari setiap responden.