An Improve Performance of Geospatial Model to Access the Tidal Flood Impact on Land Use by Evaluating Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Parameters

Abstract. Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of &plus;180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (&plus;126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by −46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM–RCP–sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

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Floodplans:landscape plan for a flood resilient municipality of Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/879/1/012015 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 879 (1) ◽

pp. 012015

Author(s):

G L Aquino ◽

H Palarca

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Environmental Protection ◽

Sea Level ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

The Philippines ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Hazard Maps ◽

Appropriate Use ◽

And Sea Level

Abstract According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), an average of 20 typhoons a year visits the Philippines; and one of the significant repercussions of typhoons is flooding. Due to worsening and intensifying typhoons, the flooding problem is also getting worse, and two of the main reasons for this are land subsidence and sea-level rise. Marilao, Bulacan, is one of the Philippines’ municipalities experiencing worsening flood levels. This study tackles an environmental approach to making the municipality adaptive and resilient to flooding by finding the most appropriate use of the land areas of Marilao – to benefit both the environment and its users. The study identified and analyzed the causes of flooding, using relevant maps such as hazard maps, existing land-use plans, and projected land-use plans to draft an effective plan for the municipality. After which, generating projections of the land conditions in the next century was done; to ensure that the proposed plans will accommodate future scenarios within the landscape. These data, along with four possible scenarios on the problems of the site, were analyzed. With this, the study took upon one of the approaches that led to the 2060 Environmental Protection Plan, which primarily focuses on addressing landscape requirements.

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THE IMPRINT OF SEA-LEVEL RISE AND LAND-USE CHANGE ON OYSTER HABITATS IN A SMALL TRIBUTARY CREEK OF THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY

10.1130/abs/2019se-326567 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Soely Luyando-Flusa ◽

◽

Christopher J. Hein ◽

Leslie Reeder-Myers ◽

Torben Rick ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Chesapeake Bay ◽

Sea Level ◽

Small Tributary

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM TRANSGRESSIVE PALEOZOIC SANDSTONES AND MODERN MID-ATLANTIC BARRIER ISLANDS, CHINCOTEAGUE BAY REGION, VIRGINIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT PLANNING IN THE FACE OF SEA-LEVEL RISE

10.1130/abs/2020se-345452 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sean R. Cornell ◽

◽

Adrienne Oakley ◽

Christopher Bochicchio

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Barrier Islands ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Management Planning ◽

The Face ◽

Land Use And Management ◽

Chincoteague Bay

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Increased Land Subsidence and Sea-Level Rise Are Submerging Egypt’s Nile Delta Coastal Margin

GSA Today ◽

10.1130/gsatg312a.1 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 4-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Jean-Daniel Stanley ◽

Pablo L. Clemente

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Nile Delta ◽

Coastal Margin ◽

And Sea Level

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Assessing inundation damage and timing of adaptation: sea level rise and the complexities of land use in coastal communities

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ◽

10.1007/s11027-013-9448-0 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 19 (5) ◽

pp. 551-568 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Brenda B. Lin ◽

Yong Bing Khoo ◽

Matthew Inman ◽

Chi-Hsiang Wang ◽

Sorada Tapsuwan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Coastal Communities

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Feasibility of sedimentation strategies for the Mekong delta to counterbalance relative sea-level rise

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5140 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Frances E. Dunn ◽

Philip S. J. Minderhoud

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Mekong Delta ◽

Sediment Deposition ◽

Sediment Supply ◽

Sediment Flux ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Fluvial Sediment ◽

Relative Sea Level Rise

<p>As one of the largest deltas in the world, the Mekong delta is home to over 17 million people and supports internationally important agriculture. Recently deposited sediment compacts and causes subsidence in deltas, so they require regular sediment input to maintain elevation relative to sea level. These processes are complicated by human activities, which prevent sediment deposition indirectly through reducing fluvial sediment supply and directly through the construction of flood defence infrastructure on deltas, impeding floods which deliver sediment to the land. Additionally, anthropogenic activities increase the rate of subsidence through the extraction of groundwater and other land-use practices.</p><p>This research shows the potential for fluvial sediment delivery to compensate for sea-level rise and subsidence in the Mekong delta over the 21st century. We use detailed elevation data and subsidence scenarios in combination with regional sea-level rise and fluvial sediment flux projections to quantify the potential for maintaining elevation relative to sea level in the Mekong delta. We present four examples of localised sedimentation scenarios in specific areas, for which we quantified the potential effectiveness of fluvial sediment deposition for offsetting relative sea-level rise. The presented sediment-based adaptation strategies are complicated by existing land use, therefore a change in water and sediment management is required to effectively use natural resources and employ these adaptation methods. The presented approach could be an exemplar to assess sedimentation strategy feasibility in other delta systems worldwide that are under threat from sea-level rise.</p>

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