AbstractThe COVID-19 global crisis is facilitated by high virus transmission rates and high percentages of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infected individuals. Containing the pandemic hinged on combinations of social distancing and face mask use. Here we examine the efficacy of these measures, using an agent-based modeling approach that evaluates face masks and social distancing in realistic confined spaces scenarios. By explicitly considering different fractions of asymptomatic individuals, as well as a realistic hypothesis of face mask protection during inhaling and exhaling, we find that face masks are more effective than social distancing in curbing the infection. Importantly, combining face masks with even moderate social distancing provides optimal protection. The finding that widespread usage of face masks limits COVID-19 outbreaks can inform policies to reopening of social functions.Author summaryThe COVID-19 outbreak has created an enormous burden on the worldwide population. Among the various ways of preventing the spread of the virus, face masks have been proposed as a main way of reducing transmission. Yet, the interplay between the usage of face mask and other forms of Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention is still not completely clear. In this paper we introduce a stochastic individual-based model which aims at producing realistic scenarios of disease spread when mask wearing with different inward and outward efficacy and social distancing are enforced. The model elucidates the conditions which make the two forms of intervention synergistic in preventing the spread of the disease.
Examining the Interplay between Face Mask Usage, Asymptomatic Transmission, and Social Distancing on the Spread of COVID-19
