scholarly journals Examining the Interplay between Face Mask Usage, Asymptomatic Transmission, and Social Distancing on the Spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Catching ◽  
Sara Capponi ◽  
Ming Te Yeh ◽  
Simone Bianco ◽  
Raul Andino
Keyword(s):  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Functions ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Worldwide Population ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
High Virus

AbstractThe COVID-19 global crisis is facilitated by high virus transmission rates and high percentages of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infected individuals. Containing the pandemic hinged on combinations of social distancing and face mask use. Here we examine the efficacy of these measures, using an agent-based modeling approach that evaluates face masks and social distancing in realistic confined spaces scenarios. By explicitly considering different fractions of asymptomatic individuals, as well as a realistic hypothesis of face mask protection during inhaling and exhaling, we find that face masks are more effective than social distancing in curbing the infection. Importantly, combining face masks with even moderate social distancing provides optimal protection. The finding that widespread usage of face masks limits COVID-19 outbreaks can inform policies to reopening of social functions.Author summaryThe COVID-19 outbreak has created an enormous burden on the worldwide population. Among the various ways of preventing the spread of the virus, face masks have been proposed as a main way of reducing transmission. Yet, the interplay between the usage of face mask and other forms of Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention is still not completely clear. In this paper we introduce a stochastic individual-based model which aims at producing realistic scenarios of disease spread when mask wearing with different inward and outward efficacy and social distancing are enforced. The model elucidates the conditions which make the two forms of intervention synergistic in preventing the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Examining the interplay between face mask usage, asymptomatic transmission, and social distancing on the spread of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Catching ◽  
Sara Capponi ◽  
Ming Te Yeh ◽  
Simone Bianco ◽  
Raul Andino
Keyword(s):  
Social Distance ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
The Face ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
High Virus

AbstractCOVID-19’s high virus transmission rates have caused a pandemic that is exacerbated by the high rates of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. These factors suggest that face masks and social distance could be paramount in containing the pandemic. We examined the efficacy of each measure and the combination of both measures using an agent-based model within a closed space that approximated real-life interactions. By explicitly considering different fractions of asymptomatic individuals, as well as a realistic hypothesis of face masks protection during inhaling and exhaling, our simulations demonstrate that a synergistic use of face masks and social distancing is the most effective intervention to curb the infection spread. To control the pandemic, our models suggest that high adherence to social distance is necessary to curb the spread of the disease, and that wearing face masks provides optimal protection even if only a small portion of the population comply with social distance. Finally, the face mask effectiveness in curbing the viral spread is not reduced if a large fraction of population is asymptomatic. Our findings have important implications for policies that dictate the reopening of social gatherings.

scholarly journals Unfixed Movement Route Model, Non-Overcrowding and Social Distancing Reduce the Spread of COVID-19 in Sporting Facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 8212
Author(s):  
Bote Qi ◽  
Jingwang Tan ◽  
Qingwen Zhang ◽  
Meng Cao ◽  
Xingxiong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Sports Facilities ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Simulation Results

Localized outbreaks of COVID-19 have been reported in sporting facilities. This study used the Agent-based Modeling (ABM) method to analyze the transmission rate of COVID-19 in different sporting models, sporting spaces per capita, and situations of gathering, which contributes to understanding how COVID-19 transmits in sports facilities. The simulation results show that the transmission rate of COVID-19 was higher under the Fixed Movement Route (FMR) than under the Unfixed Movement Route (UMR) in 10 different sporting spaces per capita (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 m2) (p = 0.000). For both FMR and UMR, the larger the sporting space per capita, the lower the virus transmission rate. Additionally, when the sporting space per capita increases from 4 m2 to 5 m2, the virus transmission rate decreases most significantly (p = 0.000). In the FMR model with a per capita sporting space of 5 m2, minimizing gathering (no more than three people) could significantly slow down the transmission rate of the COVID-19 virus (p < 0.05). This study concluded that: (1) The UMR model is suggested in training facilities or playing grounds; (2) The sporting space should be non-overcrowding, and it is recommended that the sporting space per capita in the sporting grounds should not be less than 5 m2; (3) It is important to maintain safe social distancing and minimize gathering (no more than three people) when exercising.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

scholarly journals The Effect of Social Distancing and Personal Protective Equipment on the Outbreak of SARS-COVID-2: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sohrab Effati ◽  
Eman Tavakoli
Keyword(s):  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Contagious Diseases ◽  
Biological Phenomena

Abstract Biological phenomena such as disease outbreaks can be modeled as a subset of natural phenomena. Coronaviruses, first identified in the 1960s, are contagious diseases being constantly in the area of research and modeling in human society. The latest version of this group, SARS-COVID-2, has caused the Coronavirus disease one of the greatest pandemics in recent years. Due to the nature of this disease, being aware of the ways of transmission and how to prevent it, including social distancing and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) to improve the general condition of society is of particular importance. In this study, dynamic systems (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Asymptomatic, and Recovered individuals as SEIAR), control systems, and Agent-based modeling (ABM) were used to forecast the behavior of the SARS-COVID-2 virus in the community. The numerical results display the undeniable impact of adhering to hygiene protocols. A significant decline in the number of people with the Coronavirus disease, after applying the control measures, indicates their remarkable impact on reducing the disease peak. Moreover, the result of the Agent-based simulation, which is in four ideal cases, show a significant reduction in the number of death as well.

Employing Agent-based Modeling to Mitigate Infectious Disease Spread

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 390-394
Author(s):  
Michael Schwartz ◽  
Paul Oppold ◽  
Boniface Noyongoyo ◽  
Peter Hancock
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Personal Learning ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Interpersonal Factors ◽  
Reduce Risk

The current pandemic has tested systems in place as to how to fight infectious diseases in many countries. COVID-19 spreads quickly and is deadly. However, it can be controlled through different measures such as physical distancing. The current project examines through simulation model of the UCF Global building the potential spread of an infectious disease via AnyLogic Personal Learning Edition (PLE) 8.7.0 on a laptop running Windows 10. The goal is to determine the environmental and interpersonal factors that could be modified to reduce risk of illness while maintaining typical business operations. Multiple experiments were ran to see when there is a potential change in infection and spread rate. Results show that increases occur with density between 400 and 500. To curtail the spread it is therefore important to limit contact through physical distancing for it has been proven an effective measure for reducing the spread of viral infections.

scholarly journals Determining the Number of Passengers for Each of Three Reverse Pyramid Boarding Groups with COVID-19 Flying Restrictions

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2038
Author(s):  
Camelia Delcea ◽  
R. John Milne ◽  
Liviu-Adrian Cotfas
Keyword(s):  
Health Risk ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Relative Preference ◽  
Search Optimization ◽  
Airport Terminal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The onset of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has changed many aspects of people’s economic and social activities. For many airlines, social distancing has reduced airplane capacity by one third as a result of keeping the middle seats empty. Additionally, social distancing between passengers traversing the aisle slows the boarding process. Recent literature has suggested that the reverse pyramid boarding method provides favorable values for boarding time and passenger health metrics when compared to other boarding methods with social distancing. Assuming reverse pyramid boarding with the middle seats unoccupied, we determined the number of passengers to include in each of three boarding groups. We assumed that passengers use a jet-bridge that connects the airport terminal to the airplane’s front door. We used agent-based modeling and a stochastic simulation to evaluate solutions. A full grid search found an initial good solution, and then local search optimization determined the best solution based upon the airline’s relative preference for minimizing average boarding time and minimizing risks to previously seated passengers from later-boarding, potentially contagious passengers breathing near them. The resulting solution contained the number of passengers to place into each of the three boarding groups. If an airline is most concerned about the health risk to seated passengers from later boarding passengers walking near them, the best three-group reverse pyramid method adapted for social distancing will first board passengers with window seats in the rear half of the airplane, then will board passengers with window seats in the front half of the airplane and those with aisle seats in the rear half of the airplane, and finally will board the passengers with aisle seats in the front half of the airplane. The resulting solution takes about 2% longer to board than the three-group solution that minimizes boarding time while providing a 25% decrease in health risk to aisle seat passengers from later boarding passengers.

Studies of COVID-19 Outbreak Control Using Agent-Based Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-321
Author(s):  
Shaoping Xiao ◽  
◽  
Ruicheng Liu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Communities ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Outbreak Control ◽  
High Level ◽  
General Community

An agent-based model was developed to study outbreaks and outbreak control for COVID-19, mainly in urban communities. Rules for people’s interactions and virus infectiousness were derived based on previous sociology studies and recently published data-driven analyses of COVID-19 epidemics. The calculated basic reproduction number of epidemics from the developed model coincided with reported values. There were three control measures considered in this paper: social distancing, self-quarantine and community quarantine. Each control measure was assessed individually at first. Later on, an artificial neural network was used to study the effects of different combinations of control measures. To help quantify the impacts of self-quarantine and community quarantine on outbreak control, both were scaled respectively. The results showed that self-quarantine was more effective than the others, but any individual control measure was ineffective in controlling outbreaks in urban communities. The results also showed that a high level of self-quarantine and general community quarantine, assisted with social distancing, would be recommended for outbreak control.

scholarly journals Viral dispersion in open air

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriella Trombini Machado ◽  
Claudia Ramos de Carvalho Pinto ◽  
Luisa Andrea Villanueva da Fonseca ◽  
Taissa Cristina dos Santos Ramos ◽  
Tuanny Fernanda Pereira Paggi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Petri Dishes

ABSTRACTThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has revived the debate about the routes of virus transmission and their likelihoods. It is of utmost importance to assess the risks of contamination of susceptible people by infectious individuals and to evaluate the level of viral transmission in the community. Most countries have imposed non-pharmaceutical measures to contain SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including social distancing and mask wearing. Here we evaluated the spreading of viruses in open air using harmless Escherichia coli bacteriophages as a surrogate. Phages were sprayed towards Petri dishes seeded with bacteria at different lengths and angles. Median droplets size was 127 µm, similar to those produced by sneeze. Our results showed that the transmission rate decreased exponentially with distance. The highest recorded transmission rate was 9 × 10−6 PFU/plate when phages were sprayed from a 1 m distance, suggesting that the probability of transmission of a single virus at a 1 m distance is 1:100,000. These results agree with the WHO recommendation that face mask protection in an uncrowded well-ventilated space is not required.

scholarly journals Visitor Capacity Considering Social Distancing in Urban Parks with Agent-Based Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6720
Author(s):  
Zhi Yue ◽  
Jon Bryan Burley ◽  
Zhouxiao Cui ◽  
Houping Lei ◽  
Jing Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Urban Parks ◽  
Public Spaces ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Contact Conditions ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Space Design ◽  
Virus Spreading

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly influenced society in the past few years. Park accessibility and social distancing are considered important under the threat of a long-term epidemic. However, measures that can maintain park accessibility and diminish virus spreading synchronously have been seldom studied before, which may threaten public health in all major urban parks globally. This paper proposed a methodology based on an agent-based model to analyze capacities for parks by simulating park visitor behaviors when they all are social distancing. The model was derived from historical visitor data and realistic visitor behaviors in three park settings. Then, park capacities of varied contact conditions, different park policies, and layout adjustments were analyzed. First, congestions caused by social distancing without proper visitor control are found inside all parks. Second, 85 to 3972 square meters per person is predicted as a safe space in different parks. Third, the current results can be easily adjusted according to various concerns regarding infection distance and rate. Finally, it can be inferred that information provisions are more effective than space design adjustments and mandatory measures. The results can guide park managers and those who plan and design park settings. They are also helpful in improving knowledge of the mechanisms behind visitor behaviors. Moreover, these findings can be tested and verified in a variety of public spaces with many other contact-based illnesses.

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