Negligence in relation to aging infrastructure systems could have unintended consequences and is therefore associated with a risk. The assessment of the risk of neglecting maintenance provides valuable information for decision making in maintenance management. However, infrastructure systems are interdependent and interconnected systems of systems characterized by hierarchical levels and a multiplicity of failure scenarios. Assessment methodologies are needed that can capture the multidimensional aspect of risk and simplify the risk assessment, while also improving the understanding and interpretation of the results. This paper proposes to integrate the multi-criteria decision analysis with data mining techniques to perform the risk assessment of aging infrastructures. The analysis is characterized by two phases. First, an intra failure scenario risk assessment is performed. Then, the results are aggregated to carry out an inter failure scenario risk assessment. A cluster analysis based on the k-medoids algorithm is applied to reduce the number of alternatives and identify those which dominate the decision problem. The proposed approach is applied to a system of aging culverts of the German waterways network. Results show that the procedure allows to simplify the analysis and improve communication with infrastructure stakeholders.
Modelling and Data Frameworks for Understanding Infrastructure Systems through a Systems-of-Systems Lens