A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches
Keyword(s):
Abstract Amid much recent interest we discuss a Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches (applications to other sports are possible). Our model emerges as a special case of the recently introduced Gamma Difference distribution though there is a rich history of applied work using the Variance Gamma distribution – particularly in finance. Restricting to this special case adds analytical tractability and computational ease. Our three-dimensional model extends classical two-dimensional Poisson models for soccer. Analytical results are obtained for match outcomes, total score and the awarding of bonus points. Model calibration is demonstrated using historical results, bookmakers’ data and tournament simulations.
2018 ◽
Vol 35
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pp. 23-33
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2010 ◽
Vol 14
(3)
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pp. 263-282
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2019 ◽
Vol 22
(3)
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pp. 1169-1191
2009 ◽
Vol 86
(2)
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pp. 251-260
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2019 ◽
Vol 3
(1)
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pp. s-0039-1693037