Time-Series Forecasting and Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak in Highly Populated Countries

A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.

Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development in Guinea: Causality Analysis

This essay provides a better comprehension of the other disregarded impacts of FDI by examining first, the causality direction then the long- and short-term interaction among inward FDI and financial development in Guinea using 1990-2017 data set. The empirical assertions are grounded on the Granger causality wald test, Bounds test for co-integration, Error correction model (ECM) and the Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. FDI per GDP net inflows and Credit to private sector are respectively adopted as FDI measure and financial advancement indicator. The following outcomes are established: first, FDI in the long term negatively influence financial advancement in Guinea at 5% magnitude. This inference indicates that 1 percent surge in FDI per GDP induces 0.389 decrease in credit to private sector. Second, FDI per GDP [L1] negatively and significantly interact with financial advancement in the short term. Suggesting that 1 percent increase in FDI in the short term engenders 0.215 decrease in credit to private sector. Third, the causality direction remains unidirectional irrespective to the number of lags. Finally, the long- and short-term coefficients tell us the same story regardless of the time effects. Overall, contrary to the common perceptions, we found strong evidence that foreign investment does not enhance financial development in Guinea. In terms of practical implications, it seems ineffective to use FDI as financial advancement instrument within the Guinean context.

THE EFFECT OF INFLATION, BI RATE AND EXCHANGE ON PROFITABILITY IN SHARIA BANKING IN INDONESIA PERIOD OF 2009-2019

This study examined the effect of inflation, BI Rate, and exchange rate on profitability in Islamic banking in Indonesia during 2009-2019. The population and sample in this study were all Islamic banking in Indonesia obtained by purposive sampling technique. This study used quantitative secondary data sourced from financial statements accessed on the official website of Bank Indonesia and the Financial Services Authority. The data analysis method used was Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) analysis with the help of Eviews 10. The results of the Variance Decomposition (VD) test showed that inflation could affect Return on Assets (ROA) of 0.62%. It indicated that inflation had a low or insignificant effect on the Return On Assets (ROA) of Islamic banking. BI Rate could affect the Return on Assets (ROA) of 0.13%, which indicated that inflation had a low or insignificant effect on the Return On Assets (ROA) of Islamic banking, while the exchange rate could affect the Return on Assets (ROA) of 1.89%, which indicated that the exchange rate had a significant effect on the Return On Assets (ROA) of Islamic banking. Based on the results of this study, it concluded that the exchange rate was more dominant in influencing the Return on Assets (ROA) of Islamic banking in the short and long term.

Islamic Philanthropy and Poverty Reduction in Indonesia: The Role of Integrated Islamic Social and Commercial Finance Institutions

The recent studies about the role of Islamic philanthropy in addressing socio-economic problems have been growing and confirming its significant role in overcoming the problem. This is in line with the existence of regulations that support the effectiveness of its role in poverty reduction in Indonesia, such as Law No. 23 of 2011 on Zakat Management and Law No. 41 of 2004 on Waqf. This study has two objectives. First, to analyze the impact of Islamic philanthropy on poverty reduction as the socio-economic problems in Indonesia in the short and long run. Second, to analyze the effectiveness of integrated Islamic commercial and social-economic or finance to address the poverty compared to unintegrated one. This study used Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to analyze annual data for the period of 2002-2019 while investigating the long and short-run relationships among variables. It found that Islamic philanthropy reduces poverty both in the short and long run, particularly in the integration of Islamic social and commercial finance in a single model. The government should therefore include Islamic philanthropy or other Islamic social finances as a fundamental strategy for building financial stability and sustainable development. (Menjamurnya studi-studi terbaru terkait peran filantropi Islam dalam mengatasi masalah sosial-ekonomi telah mengkonfirmasi peran pentingnya dalam mengatasi masalah ini. Hal ini sejalan dengan adanya regulasi yang mendukung efektivitas perannya dalam pengentasan kemiskinan di Indonesia, seperti Undang-Undang Nomor 23 Tahun 2011 tentang Pengelolaan Zakat dan Undang-Undang Nomor 41 Tahun 2004 tentang Wakaf. Penelitian ini memiliki dua tujuan. Pertama, untuk menganalisis dampak filantropi Islam terhadap penurunan tingkat kemiskinan sebagai sebuah permasalahan sosial-ekonomi di Indonesia, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Kedua, untuk menganalisis efektifitas integrasi atau antara filantropi dan komersial dalam kerangka ekonomi Islam dalam mengatasi permasalahan kemiskinan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) untuk menginvestigasi hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antara filantropi Islam dan tingkat kemiskinan selama periode tahun 2002-2019. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa filantropi Islam dapat menurunkan tingkat kemiskinan baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa ketika filantropi dan komersial dalam kerangka ekonomi Islam diintegrasikan, tingkat kemiskinan dapat diturunkan baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Pemerintah seyogiyanya menempatkan filantropi Islam sebagai kebijakan dan strategi fundamental dalam rangka mewujudkan stabilitas keuangan dan pembangunan berkelanjutan.)

Effets de la gouvernance sur les ressources naturelles : évidences en Afrique subsaharienne

Ce papier a pour but de revisiter la relation entre recettes issues des ressources naturelles et PIB par habitant en ASS, à l’aide d’un modèle de données de panel à effets de seuil, modèle de type Threshold Auto Regressive (TAR), inspiré des travaux de Hansen (1999). Les données couvrent 37 pays sur 48 de l’ASS et s’étendent sur la période 2002-2019. Les résultats montrent que sur la période, les rentes des ressources naturelles ont faiblement, négativement et significativement contribué à l’amélioration du bien-être des populations d’ASS. Les estimations montrent que l’élasticité entre les rentes des ressources naturelles et le PIB par habitant est comprise entre -0,093 et -0,079. Au même moment, les indicateurs de gouvernance affichent de faibles liaisons avec le PIB par habitant, contribuant faiblement à l’amélioration du niveau de vie des populations de l’ASS, quoique de façon positive sur la période. Cependant, seules les contributions de la Qualité de la réglementation et de l’Etat de droit ont été significatives. En outre, les résultats montrent qu’il n’y a pas de différences significatives entre les pays d’ASS avec de faibles institutions et ceux avec de meilleures institutions. Le modèle à effets de seuil unique validé entre les rentes des ressources naturelles et le développement estime un seuil à 3,14%. Les résultats montrent que lorsque les rentes des ressources naturelles sont inférieures à ce seuil, on est en présence d’une relation positive entre les ressources naturelles et le PIB par habitant (élasticité de 0,05%), alors que lorsqu’elles sont supérieures à ce seuil, la relation est négative (-0,08%).

Financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness: A sustainable development approach of developed and under-developed countries

The study explores the causal relationship between monetary policy effectiveness and financial inclusion in developed and under-developed countries. Structural Vector Auto-regressive techniques have been inducted to explore the relationship between monetary policy effectiveness and financial inclusion. The study covers the secondary data of 10 developed and 30 underdeveloped countries throughout 2004–2018. It is concluded that monetary policy effectiveness and financial inclusion do not have a contemporaneous impact on each other. Nevertheless, the reduced-form Vector Auto-regressive witness the reverse causality between financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness in developed countries. Thus, effective monetary policy enhances financial inclusion in a country, and a higher degree of financial inclusion lowers the inflation rate and makes monetary policy effective. One way causality from monetary policy effectiveness to financial inclusion can be observed in under-developed countries. Using the Structural Vector auto-regressive technique and financial inclusion index composed of three-dimension to examine the relationship of monetary policy effectiveness and financial inclusion in developed and developing countries is considered the study’s significant contribution.