Significance
Tehran’s more sophisticated sanctions avoidance tactics and greater willingness to test Washington’s enforcement have substantially boosted exports from 2019 lows. The slow progress on a US-Iranian mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has increased market uncertainty.
Impacts
Before sanctions lifting, limited waivers might add a few hundred thousand b/d of exports to US allies such as India, Japan and South Korea.
New foreign oil investment will depend on views of Tehran’s domestic politics after June polls and the durability of a deal with Washington.
Post-sanctions, Iran’s efforts to regain market share will create tensions with OPEC+ partners in quota negotiations.
