scholarly journals Testing the Empirical Validity of the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-184
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy

The issue of market e¢ ciency attracted the attention of academicians since the existence of financial markets. Over time, two schools of thoughts were established: the efficient markets school and the behavioral finance school. Proponents of the former believed in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis whereas the latter brought evidence from behavioral finance and psychology to demonstrate that financial markets are inefficient and this inefficiency is attributed to the irrational behavior of investors in making financial choices regarding asset allocation and portfolio construction. Recently, an adaptive reconciliation was suggested, which posits that investors'adaptability is what brings back inefficient markets to efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to test empirically the validity of the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis via a smooth transition regression model with exogenous threshold variable. The results support the reconciliation and show that markets are indeed efficient sometimes and inefficient most of the time.

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy

Whether for the sake of trying to make a fortune or for the sake of knowledge, both practitioners and academicians have had interests in studying the behavior of financial time series data since the existence of financial markets. Academicians contributed equilibrium models that aim to describe the process of price formation in capital markets. Over time, two schools of thoughts were established: the efficient markets school and the behavioral finance school. Proponents of the former believed in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH), whereas the latter brought evidence from behavioral finance and neurosciences showing that investors, especially retail traders, exhibit irrational behavior, which can explain the observed violations of the EMH in financial markets. Practitioners were not interested in developing models of price formation; rather they were interested in developing techniques to analyze and predict the price movements of financial assets. Same as academicians, practitioners can also be grouped into two schools of thought: the fundamental analysis school and the technical analysis school. Although both schools of thought share the same objective, which is to give advice on what and when to buy and sell assets for the sake of making profit, they differ in their ways of analysis. The significant role played by academicians and practitioners in the finance industry and the interconnection between both schools and the approaches followed within each of them are best perceived in the way financial assets are allocated and portfolios are constructed. In an attempt to cross that bridge between the theory of price formation in financial markets and its practical implementations, this paper aims to survey the literature on both the theoretical and the practical frontiers of asset allocation and portfolio construction, and the best way of carrying on this task is through a thorough description of the portfolio management process (PMP). To this end, the paper breaks the PMP into three main steps, namely, portfolio planning, portfolio construction, and portfolio evaluation, in that order, and then discusses each step while surveying the literature pertaining to it. In addition to the description of the PMP, the paper also answers questions of particular interest to young practitioners, who are taking their first steps towards a career in the finance industry, such as: How portfolio theory, which is at the core of finance theory, is applied in practice? How a financial portfolio of assets is constructed in practice? How the individual assets forming a portfolio are selected and allocated? And is the process of constructing portfolios unique? Although the answers to these questions might appear to be simple and straightforward, they are, in fact, quite complicated. The complication lies not only in making the theory, which is based on certain restrictive and unrealistic assumptions, work in practice, but also in the simultaneous use of a variety of tools and financial concepts in forming a sound investment strategy.


2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 411-424
Author(s):  
Feng-Li Lin

Executive pay relative to that of average workers has risen dramatically worldwide. Such a high level of executive pay raises the question of whether a steep rise in executive pay affects firm value. This study examined the relationship between executive pay and firm value. A panel smooth transition regression model is adopted to determine an optimal level of executive pay that maximizes firm value for a sample of 512 Taiwanese-listed firms over the period 2006-2011. The finding is that when the ratio of executive pay to net income after tax exceeds 2.71%, the firm value increases. The results suggest a correlation between large executive ownership (corresponding to high executive pay) and both increased operational efficiencies and firm value. These findings may be useful when contemplating executive compensation policy.


2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (06) ◽  
pp. 1250065 ◽  
Author(s):  
LADISLAV KRISTOUFEK

We investigate whether the fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and investment horizons give reasonable predictions about the dynamics of the financial markets during turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, the fractal markets hypothesis considers the financial markets as complex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through the scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices — DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 — we show that the predictions of the fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior adequately.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 439-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingxiang Zhang

This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the inflation–output type of Phillips curve based on a multiple-regime smooth transition regression model using data from China. The empirical results indicate significant nonlinearities in China's Phillips curve. The relationship between inflation and output can be modeled by a four-regime smooth transition regression model in which the responses of inflation to output depend on both inflation and economic growth rates. The inflation–output type Phillips curve may be positively sloped, negatively sloped, or even vertical in the short term, depending on different business cycles. Furthermore, we analyze business cycle fluctuations based on the nonlinear Phillips curve, indicating a coexisting zone of stable inflation rate and rapid growth rate.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850026
Author(s):  
Liam Gallagher ◽  
Mark Hutchinson ◽  
John O’Brien

We model the returns of the convertible arbitrage strategy using a non-linear framework. This strategy has generated long periods of positive returns and low volatility, followed by shorter periods of extreme negative returns and high volatility, associated with market upheaval. We specify a smooth transition regression model to assess performance, a class of model particularly suited to this type of strategy as it allows gradual transition between risk regimes. We show that in alternate regimes, the strategy exhibits relatively high (low) exposure to risk factors and alpha is high (low). The evidence reported can account for abnormal returns demonstrated in previous studies.


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