Stock Price Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

Machine learning has broad applications in the finance industry. Risk Analytics, Consumer Analytics, Fraud Detection, and Stock Market Predictions are some of the domains where machine learning methods can be implemented. Accurate prediction of stock market returns is extremely difficult due to volatility in the market. The main factor in predicting a stock market is a high level of accuracy and precision. With the introduction of artificial intelligence and high computational capacity, efficiency has increased. In the past few decades, the highly theoretical and speculative nature of the stock market has been examined by capturing and using repetitive patterns. Various machine learning algorithms like Multiple Linear Regression, Polynomial Regression, etc. are used here. The financial data contains factors like Date, Volume, Open, High, Low Close, and Adj Close prices. The models are evaluated using standard strategic indicators RMSE and R2 score. Lower values of these two indicators mean higher efficiency of the trained models. Various companies employ different types of analysis tools for forecasting and the primary aim is the accuracy to obtain the maximum profit. The successful prediction of the stock will be an invaluable asset for the stock market institutions and will provide real-life solutions to the problems of the investors. Keywords: Stock prices, Analysis, Accuracy, Prediction, Machine Learning, Regression, Finance

Understanding FinTech and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) for Financial Inclusion

For a very long period of time, financial inclusion researchers have been addressing the barriers that prevent unprivileged people from accessing and using financial services. Financial exclusion is an underlying social problem that dates from the creation of the first financial system. Without the access to the banking and financial infrastructures, the unbanked are perpetuating a vicious cycle of poverty. Blockchain is leading this transformation of allowing unbanked and underbanked people to have access and interact with the finance industry. The promise of a digital economy is starting to take shape, as financial technology (FinTech) companies are evolving the concept of democratization of access. Decentralized finance (DeFi) is expanding the possibilities of financial technology by creating an ecosystem based on transparency, accessibility, and efficiency. We are witnessing a paradigm shift for most of the financial services which are remodeling the accessibility and usability of these services, addressing the excluded and underserved population.

Consumers’ Perception of The Cost of Credit Default in The Vehicle Finance Industry in South Africa

The risk that a borrower may not fulfil his/her borrowing obligation presents credit owner (lender) a default risk management opportunity to maximize the risk-adjusted rate of return and to maintain minimum exposure to default associated cost. This paper investigated respondents’ perception of the cost of credit default and examines requirements for default risk management (DRM) in the vehicle finance industry in South Africa. It is noted that with an increased level of consumer indebtedness, unstable economy, high unemployment, opportunistic risks like health pandemics, vehicle financing faces a higher probability of default from borrowers. This descriptive investigation utilised quantitative approach using a survey method to collect data from 381 purposive randomly selected respondents who are vehicle finance customers in South Africa, Cape Town specifically. Data collection took place in the Western Cape over a nine-month period, utilising personal interview, and emails to administer questionnaires to vehicle finances’ customers as data collection instruments. Responses received were codified and quantitative data were analysed using the Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS version 25) The paper found mixed and variable respondents’ perception of the cost of credit default. In conclusion, it is perceived that South Africa debt would become more costly with credit default. It can be recommended that a default risk management intervention be applied to manage credit default risk within the context of the unified credit assessment policy in South Africa.

BASYTAMA CONCEPTS OF SHARIA FINANCIAL LITERATURE ACCELERATION IN PREPARING EXCELLENT HUMAN RESOURCES BASED ON VILLAGE COMMUNITIES

Indonesia's Islamic finance sector (Halal Finance) is experiencing rapid growth. In a pandemic situation, Islamic banking grows consistently. It recorded that in 2020, Islamic banking grew by 9.22%. Based on the Islamic Finance Development Index issued by the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), Indonesia's Islamic finance industry managed to climb to rank two after previously occupying the 4th position. The productive age of the population also has considerable potential to increase the number of Islamic bank customers in Indonesia. This is also becoming more potential because based on data from the Central Statistics Agency in 2019 Indonesia has 83,820 villages. However, on the other hand, based on a survey from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) in 2019, the Islamic financial literacy index of the Indonesian people only reached 8.93%. Based on the potential and existing problems, this study aims to develop a concept of public interest in using Islamic bank products through the Bank Syariah Kita Bersama (Basytama) program which is part of a community empowerment strategy and builds superior human resources through the development of community-based Islamic financial ecosystem institutional aspects. village. This research is based on descriptive qualitative analysis. This is supported by the use of primary and secondary data, in primary data collection we use distributing questionnaires to people and conducting interviews by telephone or virtual conference based on in-depth interviews. contact. In addition, to help support research to obtain more comprehensive and extensive data, we also use secondary data through library research, using various trusted and credible reference sources. The conceptual model of Basytama focuses on aspects of Islamic banking, empowerment, and education in rural communities. We base this concept on Basytama programs such as collecting and distributing funds, collaborating with stakeholders at the village level, opening assistance programs, and researching village potentials through the Basytama Institute so that it is hoped that an increase in the competence and standard of living of the community will be achieved accompanied by an increase in the quality of life. Islamic financial literacy at the village level.

Mapping the Wave of Industry Digitalization by Co-Word Analysis: An Exploration of Four Disruptive Industries

This paper aims to identify global digital trends across industries and to map emerging business areas by co-word analysis. As the industrial landscape has become complex and dynamic due to the rapid pace of technological changes and digital transformation, identifying industrial trends can be critical for strategic planning and investment policy at the firm and regional level. For this purpose, the paper examines industry and technology profiles of top startups across four industries (i.e. education, finance, healthcare, manufacturing) using CrunchBase metadata for the period 2016–2018 and studies in which subsector early-stage firms bring digital technologies on a global level. In particular, we apply word co-occurrence analysis to reveal which subindustry and digital technology keywords/keyphrases appear together in startup company classification. We also use network analysis to visualize industry structure and to identify digitalization trends across sectors. The results obtained from the analysis show that gamification and personalization are emerging trends in the education sector. In the finance industry, digital technologies penetrate in a wide set of services such as financial transactions, payments, insurance, venture capital, stock exchange, asset and risk management. Moreover, the data analyses indicate that health diagnostics and elderly care areas are at the forefront of the healthcare industry digitalization. In the manufacturing sector, startup companies focus on automating industrial processes and creating smart interconnected manufacturing. Finally, we discuss the implications of the study for strategic planning and management.

The actualization of maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah in Islamic finance: a conceptual framework

Purpose This paper aims to formulate a conceptual framework that will facilitate the actualization of maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah in product design and consumption within Islamic financial institutions (IFIs). Design/methodology/approach This paper relies on the classical and contemporary literature on maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah and Islamic finance and adopts a qualitative content analysis method and an inductive approach to outline the constituent elements that formulate the framework. Findings This study determines six vital constituents of maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah, namely, parameters of maqāṣid, particular objectives, appropriate means, micro provisions, level of need and legal maxims to develop a conceptual framework of actualizing maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah in Islamic finance. The framework covers the following three stages: identification of maqāṣid, operationalization of maqāṣid in product design and consumption based on maqāṣid. Research limitations/implications This paper proposes a conceptual framework without investigating the practice of any particular industry or products. Further research would focus on formulating a practical framework based on a focus group discussion with industry experts, elaborating the parameters of maqāṣid, scrutinizing the maqāṣid available in the literature by the parameters of maqāṣid and assessing the IFIs’ products and services using the proposed framework. Practical implications This paper provides insights into the importance of maqāṣid elements and the effects of overlooking them on IFIs and customers’ product consumption. Furthermore, a major implication of the proposed framework is to learn how to use the maqāṣid approach as the baseline for designing new financial products. Originality/value The novelty of this paper lies in its pioneering attempt of harmonizing all essential maqāṣid elements and using them as constituents to formulate a comprehensive framework that actualizes maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah in the Islamic finance industry.

How Has the Indonesian Stock Market Performed During Covid-19 Outbreaks?

This paper analyzes the stock market reaction towards the Covid-19 pandemic by using a sample of Indonesian listed firms. In general, we document a significant negative cumulative abnormal returns when the Indonesian President announces the first case of Covid-19 in Indonesia. This effect remains ten days (weaker) after the announcement. However, we only find a short-term effect on the finance industry. While the explanation is still unclear, the investors may observe that the economic impact on the finance industry may arise in the long-run.

Comparison of News Impacts on Sectoral Stock Returns during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey

This study examines how the volatility of the sectoral stock returns within Borsa İstanbul are affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis uses daily stock return data for four main sector indices: services, finance, industry, and technology. The sample period of the study covers 03.03.2015–11.03.2021, and 12.03.2020-03.04.2021 is separately analyzed for the COVID-19 period. When E-GARCH models and news impact curves are analyzed, it is found that the services sector stock returns volatility differs from other sectoral stock returns.

Halal Tourism to Promote Community’s Economic Growth: A Model for Aceh, Indonesia

This study designs a halal economic model of tourism within the framework of Islamic sharia enforcement in Aceh to boost economic growth within community. This study used an expert system approach, which collects key data and information in the formulation of model design through interviews, questionnaires, direct observation, and synthesis of data in the field. A conceptual model of the development system included planning, analysis, design, verification, and validation; each was used to analyze the data. The present study suggests that the proposed formulation of the halal tourism model in Aceh must consider three key factors. First, the key principle of the halal tourism model industry is designed based on Islamic principles, the national legal foundations, and the local regulations. Second, the halal tourism industry is expected to address two important issues: halal certification in hospitality and gastronomy services and empowerment in amenity, human resources, and events. Third, it is also hoped that halal tourism management can focus on the object, marketing, industrial, and institutional developments. These three factors must be fully support by government policy and the Islamic finance industry. The present study is expected to provide essential, inclusive, and wide-ranging aspects for developing the halal tourism industry and encouraging community economic growth. This study also provides insights into how an inclusive conceptual framework can boost the halal tourism industry without defying its basic principles.

Moratorium in Islamic Hire Purchase Financing: A Shariah Perspective

This study examined the implementation of moratorium in the Islamic hire purchase financing based on Al-Ijarah Thumma Al-Bay’ (AITAB) from the Shariah perspective. The implementation of moratorium by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is a new practice in the banking and finance industry in Malaysia. Implementing the moratorium causes several changes to the AITAB contract such as the extension in contract tenure and the increase in the total payment obligation due to the profit charged on the outstanding principal. This study analysed these changes from the Shariah perspective by using the al-takyif al-fiqhi methodology. The results of the analysis confirm the practice of moratorium by IFIs is in line with the Shariah requirements as long as it is agreed by the parties to the contract - which are the bank and the customer. Needless to say, both Ijarah Policy Document and Hire Purchase Act 1967 allow any forms of amendments including profit compounding when the AITAB contract is restructured, provided that such amendments are agreed between the contracting parties. Despite this permissibility, IFIs are still required to comply with the new ruling issued by SAC BNM that prohibits the practice of profit compounding during the COVID-19 crisis. Although, in principle, the ruling is based on the concept of ihsan (beneficence) which is not compulsory (wajib) but rather recommendation (istihbab) from the Shariah perspective; however, from the regulatory perspective the ruling is compulsory for IFIs to comply pursuant to section 28(1) and 28(2) of Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 (IFSA) that stated compliance with Shariah means compliance with any ruling of the Shariah Advisory Council. The moratorium is seen as a manifestation of the concept of ihsan (beneficence) towards the customers affected financially due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This commendable effort should be encouraged and continued by the Islamic financial institutions in upholding the Shariah principle of maslahah and lifting of difficulties (raf al-haraj), particularly in the current outbreak of COVID-19 and the impact of MCO.