scholarly journals Forecast of the Number of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States to the Year 2010

2001 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2753-2758 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay L. Xue ◽  
Jennie Z. Ma ◽  
Thomas A. Louis ◽  
Allan J. Collins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dialysis Patients ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Esrd Patients

ABSTRACT. As the United States end-stage renal disease (ESRD) program enters the new millennium, the continued growth of the ESRD population poses a challenge for policy makers, health care providers, and financial planners. To assist in future planning for the ESRD program, the growth of patient numbers and Medicare costs was forecasted to the year 2010 by modeling of historical data from 1982 through 1997. A stepwise autoregressive method and exponential smoothing models were used. The forecasting models for ESRD patient numbers demonstrated mean errors of −0.03 to 1.03%, relative to the observed values. The model for Medicare payments demonstrated −0.12% mean error. The R2 values for the forecasting models ranged from 99.09 to 99.98%. On the basis of trends in patient numbers, this forecast projects average annual growth of the ESRD populations of approximately 4.1% for new patients, 6.4% for long-term ESRD patients, 7.1% for dialysis patients, 6.1% for patients with functioning transplants, and 8.2% for patients on waiting lists for transplants, as well as 7.7% for Medicare expenditures. The numbers of patients with ESRD in 2010 are forecasted to be 129,200 ± 7742 (95% confidence limits) new patients, 651,330 ± 15,874 long-term ESRD patients, 520,240 ± 25,609 dialysis patients, 178,806 ± 4349 patients with functioning transplants, and 95,550 ± 5478 patients on waiting lists. The forecasted Medicare expenditures are projected to increase to $28.3 ± 1.7 billion by 2010. These projections are subject to many factors that may alter the actual growth, compared with the historical patterns. They do, however, provide a basis for discussing the future growth of the ESRD program and how the ESRD community can meet the challenges ahead.

Abstract MP10: Increasing Obesity Prevalence in the United States End-stage Renal Disease Population

Circulation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 137 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brittany Shelton ◽  
Deanna McWilliams ◽  
Rhiannon D Reed ◽  
Margaux Mustian ◽  
Paul MacLennan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
The United States ◽  
Obesity Prevalence ◽  
The Us ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Esrd Patients

Background: Obesity has become a national epidemic, and is associated with increased risk for comorbid diseases including end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Among ESRD patients, obesity may improve dialysis-survival but decreases likelihood of transplantation, and as such, obesity prevalence may directly impact growth of the incident dialysis population. Methods: Incident adult ESRD patients with complete body mass index (BMI, kg/m 2 ) data were identified from the United States Renal Data System from 01/01/1995-12/31/2010 (n=1,822,598). Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (n=4,303,471) represented the US population when weighted. Trends in BMI and obesity classes I (BMI of 30-34.9), II (BMI of 35-39.9), and III (BMI ≥40) were examined by year of dialysis initiation. Trends in median BMI slope were compared between the ESRD and US populations using linear regression. Results: Median BMI of ESRD patients in 1995 was 24.2 as compared to 28.0 in 2010, a 15.7% increase, while the US population’s median BMI increased from 24.2 in 1995 to 25.6 in 2010, a 5.8% increase. Comparable trends were noted with respect to prevalence of obesity classes I, II, and III (Table). BMI increase among the ESRD population was significantly more rapid than among the US population (β: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.14-0.17, p<0.001) (Figure). Conclusion: The median BMI of ESRD patients and prevalence of obesity among ESRD patients is increasing more rapidly than the US population. Given the increased dialysis-survival and decreased likelihood of transplantation associated with obesity, healthcare costs will likely increase, and thus, future research should be directed at examining medical expenditures.

scholarly journals Emergency Department Use by Patients with End-stage Renal Disease in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ningyuan Wang ◽  
Jiao Pei ◽  
Hui Fan ◽  
Yaseen Ali ◽  
Jian Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Esrd Patients

Abstract Background: We sought to describe the national characteristics of ED visits by patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States in order to improve the emergency treatment and screening of ESRD patients. Methods: We analyzed data from 2014-2016 ED visits provided by the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We sampled adult (age ≥ 18 years) ED patients with ESRD. By proportion or means of weighted sample variables, we quantified annual ED visits by patients with ESRD. We investigated demographics, ED resource utilization, clinical characteristics, and disposition of patients with ESRD vs. those without ESRD. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between these characteristics and ESRD ED visits. Results: Approximately 722,692 (7.78%) out of 92,899,685 annual ED visits were ESRD patients. ED patients with ESRD were mostly non-Hispanic whites (51.5%) and males were more likely to be ESRD patients than females (aOR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.47–1.48). ED patients with ESRD were more likely to be admitted to the hospital (aOR: 2.22; 95% CI: 2.21–2.22) and intensive care unit (ICU) (aOR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.52–1.54) than patients without ESRD. ED patients with ESRD were more likely to receive blood tests, get medical imaging tests.Conclusion: We described the unique demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical characteristics of ED patients with ESRD, using the most comprehensive, nationally representative study to date. These patients’ higher hospital and ICU admission rates indicate that patients with ESRD require a higher level of emergency care.

scholarly journals Emergency Department Use by Patients With End-stage Renal Disease in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ningyuan Wang ◽  
Jiao Pei ◽  
Hui Fan ◽  
Yaseen Ali ◽  
Jian Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Esrd Patients

Abstract Background: We sought to describe the national characteristics of ED visits by patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States in order to improve the emergency treatment and screening of ESRD patients. Methods: We analyzed data from 2014-2016 ED visits provided by the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We sampled adult (age ≥ 18 years) ED patients with ESRD. By proportion or means of weighted sample variables, we quantified annual ED visits by patients with ESRD. We investigated demographics, ED resource utilization, clinical characteristics, and disposition of patients with ESRD vs. those without ESRD. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between these characteristics and ESRD ED visits. Results: Approximately 722,692 (7.78%) out of 92,899,685 annual ED visits were ESRD patients. ED patients with ESRD were mostly non-Hispanic whites (51.5%) and males were more likely to be ESRD patients than females (aOR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.47–1.48). ED patients with ESRD were more likely to be admitted to the hospital (aOR: 2.22; 95% CI: 2.21–2.22) and intensive care unit (ICU) (aOR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.52–1.54) than patients without ESRD. ED patients with ESRD were more likely to receive blood tests, get medical imaging tests.Conclusion: We described the unique demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical characteristics of ED patients with ESRD, using the most comprehensive, nationally representative study to date. These patients’ higher hospital and ICU admission rates indicate that patients with ESRD require a higher level of emergency care.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamad Adam Bujang ◽  
Tassha Hilda Adnan ◽  
Nadiah Hanis Hashim ◽  
Kirubashni Mohan ◽  
Ang Kim Liong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Dialysis Patients ◽  
Dialysis Treatment ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Transplant Registry ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Esrd Patients

Background. The incidence of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis has been growing rapidly in Malaysia from 18 per million population (pmp) in 1993 to 231 pmp in 2013.Objective. To forecast the incidence and prevalence of ESRD patients who will require dialysis treatment in Malaysia until 2040.Methodology. Univariate forecasting models using the number of new and current dialysis patients, by the Malaysian Dialysis and Transplant Registry from 1993 to 2013 were used. Four forecasting models were evaluated, and the model with the smallest error was selected for the prediction.Result. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) modeling with the lowest error was selected to predict both the incidence (RMSE = 135.50, MAPE = 2.85, and MAE = 87.71) and the prevalence (RMSE = 158.79, MAPE = 1.29, and MAE = 117.21) of dialysis patients. The estimated incidences of new dialysis patients in 2020 and 2040 are 10,208 and 19,418 cases, respectively, while the estimated prevalence is 51,269 and 106,249 cases.Conclusion. The growth of ESRD patients on dialysis in Malaysia can be expected to continue at an alarming rate. Effective steps to address and curb further increase in new patients requiring dialysis are urgently needed, in order to mitigate the expected financial and health catastrophes associated with the projected increase of such patients.

scholarly journals Emergency department use by patients with end-stage renal disease in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ningyuan Wang ◽  
Jiao Pei ◽  
Hui Fan ◽  
Yaseen Ali ◽  
Anna Prushinskaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Esrd Patients

AbstractBackgroundWe sought to describe the national characteristics of ED visits by patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States in order to improve the emergency treatment and screening of ESRD patients.MethodsWe analyzed data from 2014 to 2016 ED visits provided by the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We sampled adult (age ≥ 18 years) ED patients with ESRD. By proportion or means of weighted sample variables, we quantified annual ED visits by patients with ESRD. We investigated demographics, ED resource utilization, clinical characteristics, and disposition of patients with ESRD and compared these to those of patients without ESRD. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between these characteristics and ESRD ED visits.ResultsApproximately 722,692 (7.78%) out of 92,899,685 annual ED visits represented ESRD patients. Males were more likely to be ESRD patients than females (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.09–1.66). Compare to whites, non-Hispanic Blacks were 2.55 times more likely to have ESRD (aOR: 2.55; 95% CI: 1.97–3.30), and Hispanics were 2.68 times more likely to have ESRD (95% CI: 1.95–3.69). ED patients with ESRD were more likely to be admitted to the hospital (aOR: 2.70; 95% CI: 2.13–3.41) and intensive care unit (ICU) (aOR: 2.21; 95% CI: 1.45–3.38) than patients without ESRD. ED patients with ESRD were more likely to receive blood tests and get radiology tests.ConclusionWe described the unique demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical characteristics of ED patients with ESRD, using the most comprehensive, nationally representative study to date. These patients’ higher hospital and ICU admission rates indicate that patients with ESRD require a higher level of emergency care.

scholarly journals Impact of poverty and race on pre-end-stage renal disease care among dialysis patients in the United States

2016 ◽  
pp. sfw098 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Nee ◽  
Christina M. Yuan ◽  
Frank P. Hurst ◽  
Rahul M. Jindal ◽  
Lawrence Y. Agodoa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dialysis Patients ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage

scholarly journals Emergent Dialysis and its Impact on Quality of Life in Undocumented Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew N. Hogan ◽  
William R. Fox ◽  
Lynn P. Roppolo ◽  
Robert E. Suter
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
United States ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dialysis Patients ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Esrd Patients

<p class="Pa7"><strong>Objective: </strong>This study aimed to define the ethnographic composition and assess the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of a large population of undocumented patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) seeking emergent dialysis in the emergency depart­ment (ED) of a large public hospital in the United States.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Design: </strong>All ESRD patients presenting to the hospital’s main ED were identified during a 4-week consecutive enrollment period. Consenting patients completed two surveys—an ethnographic questionnaire and the validated kidney disease quality of life-36 (KDQOL-36) instrument.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Setting: </strong>The study was conducted at a large county hospital in Dallas, Texas. In 2013, the hospital recorded &gt;50,000 ED visits and administered approximately 6,000 dialysis treatments to ED patients.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Participants: </strong>88 of 101 unfunded patients presenting to the ED during the study period consented to participate, resulting in an 87.1% response rate. 65 of these patients were undocumented immigrants.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Main Outcome Measures: </strong>Quantitative scores for the 5 subscales of the KDQOL-36 were calculated for the study population.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Results: </strong>Measures of physical and mental health in our study population were lower than those published for scheduled dialysis patients. 79.5% of our patients lost employ­ment due to their dialysis requirements. At least 71.4% of the study patients were unaware that they required dialysis before immigrating to the United States.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Quality of life scores were found to be low among our population of undocumented emergent dialysis patients. Our data also provide some evidence that availability of dialysis at no cost is not a primary driver of illegal immigration of ESRD patients to the United States.</p><p class="Pa7"><em>Ethn Dis. </em>2017;27(1):39-44; doi:10.18865/ed.27.1.39.</p>

scholarly journals Emergency Department Use by Patients with End-stage Renal Disease in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ningyuan Wang ◽  
Jiao Pei ◽  
Hui Fan ◽  
Yaseen Ali ◽  
Anna Prushinskaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Esrd Patients

Abstract Background: We sought to describe the national characteristics of ED visits by patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States in order to improve the emergency treatment and screening of ESRD patients. Methods: We analyzed data from 2014-2016 ED visits provided by the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We sampled adult (age ≥ 18 years) ED patients with ESRD. By proportion or means of weighted sample variables, we quantified annual ED visits by patients with ESRD. We investigated demographics, ED resource utilization, clinical characteristics, and disposition of patients with ESRD and compared these to those of patients without ESRD. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between these characteristics and ESRD ED visits. Results: Approximately 722,692 (7.78%) out of 92,899,685 annual ED visits represented ESRD patients. Males were more likely to be ESRD patients than females (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.09–1.66). Compare to whites, non-Hispanic Blacks were 2.55 times more likely to have ESRD (aOR: 2.55; 95% CI: 1.97 – 3.30), and Hispanics were 2.68 times more likely to have ESRD (95% CI: 1.95–3.69). ED patients with ESRD were more likely to be admitted to the hospital (aOR: 2.70 ; 95% CI: 2.13-3.41) and intensive care unit (ICU) (aOR: 2.21; 95% CI: 1.45-3.38) than patients without ESRD. ED patients with ESRD were more likely to receive blood tests and get radiology tests.Conclusion: We described the unique demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical characteristics of ED patients with ESRD, using the most comprehensive, nationally representative study to date. These patients’ higher hospital and ICU admission rates indicate that patients with ESRD require a higher level of emergency care.

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