We use marginal analysis for three seed orchard management decisions. First we consider the roguing of a seed orchard established with many untested trees. We show that inferior parents should be rogued to the point where the number of orchard trees times the average expected volume gain of trees from seed produced by that orchard is maximized. Marginal analysis also is useful where one must choose the number of trees to establish in an orchard planted after progeny tests have identified superior parents. The cost of establishing many ramets to meet early seed production goals can be balanced with the projected value of seed. For the example presented, an additional orchard tree is cost effective if its seed is needed at an orchard age of 12 to 15 years. Finally, we use marginal analysis to determine whether to induce a seed orchard to increase its seed production when there is an excess demand for seed. This decision is guided by balancing the cost of the induction treatment with the combined effect of expected increase in seed harvest, the amount of genetic gain, and the discount rate. We present a four-quadrant decision diagram for estimating this balance. In designing tree improvement programs, these analytical techniques can be applied to proposed alternatives as one way to structure decision making and to provide comparable economic assessments from which cost-effective choices can be made.
Botanical and Pomological Aspects of Stone Fruits Physiology, Agronomy and Orchard Management
