Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models I: First-Order Results

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (2A) ◽  
pp. 787-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Zechar ◽  
D. Schorlemmer ◽  
M. J. Werner ◽  
M. C. Gerstenberger ◽  
D. A. Rhoades ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
First Order ◽  
Earthquake Likelihood Models ◽  
Regional Earthquake

scholarly journals Implications of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models test of earthquake forecasts in California

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Karl Sachs ◽  
Ya-Ting Lee ◽  
Donald Turcotte ◽  
James R. Holliday ◽  
John B. Rundle
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Test Area ◽  
Test Period ◽  
Future Earthquake ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The One ◽  
Earthquake Likelihood Models ◽  
Regional Earthquake

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test was the first competitive comparison of prospective earthquake forecasts. The test was carried out over 5 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2010 over a region that included all of California. The test area was divided into 7682 0.1°x0.1° spatial cells. Each submitted forecast gave the predicted numbers of earthquakes <em>N<sub>emi</sub></em> larger than <em>M</em>=4.95 in 0.1 magnitude bins for each cell. In this paper we present a method that separates the forecast of the number of test earthquakes from the forecast of their locations. We first obtain the number <em>N<sub>em</sub></em> of forecast earthquakes in magnitude bin <em>m</em>. We then determine the conditional probability <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em>=<em>N<sub>emi</sub>/</em><em>N<sub>em</sub></em> that an earthquake in magnitude bin <em>m</em> will occur in cell <em>i</em>. The summation of <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em> over all 7682 cells is unity. A random (no skill) forecast gives equal values of <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em> for all spatial cells and magnitude bins. The <em>skill</em> of a forecast, in terms of the location of the earthquakes, is measured by the success in assigning large values of <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em> to the cells in which earthquakes occur and low values of <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em> to the cells where earthquakes do not occur. Thirty-one test earthquakes occurred in 27 different combinations of spatial cells <em>i</em> and magnitude bins <em>m</em>, we had the highest value of <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em> for that <em>mi</em> cell. We evaluate the performance of eleven submitted forecasts in two ways. First, we determine the number of <em>mi</em> cells for which the forecast <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em> was the largest, the best forecast is the one with the highest number. Second, we determine the mean value of <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em> for the 27 <em>mi</em> cells for each forecast. The best forecast has the highest mean value of <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em>. The success of a forecast during the test period is dependent on the allocation of the probabilities λemi between the mi cells, since the sum over the mi cells is unity. We illustrate the forecast distributions of <em>λ<sub>emi</sub></em> and discuss their differences. We conclude that the RELM test was successful in illustrating the choices required when a forecast of the location of a future earthquake is made.

scholarly journals First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment

2010 ◽  
pp. 5-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danijel Schorlemmer ◽  
◽  
J. Douglas Zechar ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner ◽  
Edward H. Field ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
First Results ◽  
Earthquake Likelihood Models ◽  
Regional Earthquake

scholarly journals Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

2011 ◽  
Vol 108 (40) ◽  
pp. 16533-16538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y.-T. Lee ◽  
D. L. Turcotte ◽  
J. R. Holliday ◽  
M. K. Sachs ◽  
J. B. Rundle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Likelihood Models ◽  
Regional Earthquake

scholarly journals Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models II: Information Gains of Multiplicative Hybrids

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (6) ◽  
pp. 3072-3083 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Rhoades ◽  
M. C. Gerstenberger ◽  
A. Christophersen ◽  
J. D. Zechar ◽  
D. Schorlemmer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Likelihood Models ◽  
Regional Earthquake

scholarly journals First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment

2010 ◽  
Vol 167 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 859-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danijel Schorlemmer ◽  
◽  
J. Douglas Zechar ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner ◽  
Edward H. Field ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
First Results ◽  
Earthquake Likelihood Models ◽  
Regional Earthquake

Dual systems for all: Higher-order, role-based relational reasoning as a uniquely derived feature of human cognition

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Povinelli ◽  
Gabrielle C. Glorioso ◽  
Shannon L. Kuznar ◽  
Mateja Pavlic
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Reasoning ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Important Case ◽  
Human Cognition ◽  
Relational Reasoning ◽  
Dual Systems ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reasoning System ◽  
Role Based

Abstract Hoerl and McCormack demonstrate that although animals possess a sophisticated temporal updating system, there is no evidence that they also possess a temporal reasoning system. This important case study is directly related to the broader claim that although animals are manifestly capable of first-order (perceptually-based) relational reasoning, they lack the capacity for higher-order, role-based relational reasoning. We argue this distinction applies to all domains of cognition.

Stochasting modeling of planetary ring systems

1984 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 461-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert W. Hart
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Ring System ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Ultimate State ◽  
Interparticle Interactions ◽  
Ring Systems ◽  
First Order ◽  
Planetary Ring ◽  
Insight Into

ABSTRACTThis paper models maximum entropy configurations of idealized gravitational ring systems. Such configurations are of interest because systems generally evolve toward an ultimate state of maximum randomness. For simplicity, attention is confined to ultimate states for which interparticle interactions are no longer of first order importance. The planets, in their orbits about the sun, are one example of such a ring system. The extent to which the present approximation yields insight into ring systems such as Saturn's is explored briefly.

Morphological studies of linear (AB)n multiblock copolymers and their blends

1992 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 384-385
Author(s):  
Richard J. Spontak ◽  
Steven D. Smith ◽  
Arman Ashraf
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Microphase Separation ◽  
Multiblock Copolymers ◽  
First Order ◽  
Morphological Studies ◽  
Transmission Electron ◽  
First Order Phase Transition ◽  
Covalently Bonded ◽  
Total Molecular Weight ◽  
First Order Phase

Block copolymers are composed of sequences of dissimilar chemical moieties covalently bonded together. If the block lengths of each component are sufficiently long and the blocks are thermodynamically incompatible, these materials are capable of undergoing microphase separation, a weak first-order phase transition which results in the formation of an ordered microstructural network. Most efforts designed to elucidate the phase and configurational behavior in these copolymers have focused on the simple AB and ABA designs. Few studies have thus far targeted the perfectly-alternating multiblock (AB)n architecture. In this work, two series of neat (AB)n copolymers have been synthesized from styrene and isoprene monomers at a composition of 50 wt% polystyrene (PS). In Set I, the total molecular weight is held constant while the number of AB block pairs (n) is increased from one to four (which results in shorter blocks). Set II consists of materials in which the block lengths are held constant and n is varied again from one to four (which results in longer chains). Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) has been employed here to investigate the morphologies and phase behavior of these materials and their blends.

Exact First Order Finite Element Modeling for Eddy Current NDE

1991 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 235-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. D. Philipp ◽  
Q. H. Nguyen ◽  
D. D. Derkacht ◽  
D. J. Lynch ◽  
A. Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Finite Element Modeling ◽  
Eddy Current ◽  
Element Modeling ◽  
First Order ◽  
Eddy Current Nde
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