Limited horizontal drilling has occurred within the Niobrara-equivalent section of the Mancos Shale in the Piceance Basin, and the results from individual wells are highly variable. Prior studies have suggested that thermal maturity and completion techniques were the primary drivers for the observed production trends, but further analysis of well results indicates there are more variables at play. This study leveraged a comprehensive data set from the Piceance Basin, including core analyses, pressure data, and drilling and completion methods to provide additional context for the production results. From this analysis, several key trends were identified. North/south variations in thermal maturity were confirmed, as well as additional trends were identified revealing later exhumation south of the Rangely fault system resulted in significant depressurization, particularly in the western Piceance Basin. The semi-regional depressurization was the result of decrease in overburden pressures that allowed vertical migration of hydrocarbons out of the Mancos Shale. In addition to the semi-regional depressurization, there were more local depressurization events that resulted from faulting in areas such as the Orchard Unit in the southern Piceance Basin where thrust faults allowed hydrocarbons to migrate vertically into overlying formations.
Northwest to southeast production trends are present in the southern Piceance Basin and are interpreted to reflect structurally undeformed areas based on high formation pressures and better producing horizontal wells. Parent-child effects have been observed locally and are linked to lower initial production rates and faster decline rates. The northern Piceance Basin exhibits higher reservoir pressure in the liquids window than was observed to the south due to the relatively low degree of exhumation and/or faulting in areas where horizontal Niobrara wells were drilled. Horizontal well results in the northern Piceance Basin have been mixed, largely due to inefficient completion strategies. By comparing the northern Piceance Basin wells with similar horizontal Niobrara wells in the Powder River Basin of northeastern Wyoming, it is concluded that drilling into the over-pressured liquids rim and utilizing slickwater frac fluid with friction reducer and 100 mesh sand will yield improved economic results over those obtained so far in the Piceance Basin. Though relatively few laterals have been drilled in the Piceance Basin Niobrara play, the basin has great future potential.