A Fuzzy Rule-Based Compartmental Modeling for SARS-CoV-2

Different epidemiological compartmental models have been presented to predict the transmission dynamics of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which is the most burning issue all over the world right now. In this study, we have proposed a new fuzzy rule-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death (SEIRD) compartmental model to delineate the intervention and transmission heterogeneity in China, New Zealand, United States and Bangladesh for SARS-CoV-2 viral infection. We have introduced a new dynamic fuzzy transmission possibility variable in the compartmental model. Through our model, we have presented the correspondence of the intervention measures in relaxing the transmission possibility. We estimated that the peak in the US might arrive during the last half of August and for Bangladesh, it might occur during the first half of August, 2020 if current intervention measures are not violated. We have modeled a prediction scenario for Bangladesh if current intervention measures are violated due to Eid-ul-Azha. We further investigated what might happen if Bangladesh government reopens everything from September, 2020. We suggested various effective epidemic control policies for the authority of Bangladesh to fight against the virus. We concluded analyzing the current scenario of Bangladesh suggesting that extensive tests must be carried out collecting more samples of the asymptomatic individuals along with the symptomatic cases and also proper isolation and quarantine measures should be maintained strictly to contain the epidemic sooner.