Modeling the spread of an epidemic in presence of vaccination using cellular automata

The results of Kermack–McKendrick SIR model are planned to be reproduced by cellular automata (CA) lattice model. The CA algorithms are proposed to study the model of an epidemic, systematically. The basic goal is to capture the effects of spreading of infection over a scale of length. This CA model can provide the rate of growth of the infection over the space which was lacking in the mean-field like susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model. The motion of the circular front of an infected cluster shows a linear behavior in time. The correlation of a particular site to be infected with respect to the central site is also studied. The outcomes of the CA model are in good agreement with those obtained from SIR model. The results of vaccination have been also incorporated in the CA algorithm with a satisfactory degree of success. The advantage of the present model is that it can shed a considerable amount of light on the physical properties of the spread of a typical epidemic in a simple, yet robust way.

Viscoelastic initially stressed microbeam heated by an intense pulse laser via photo-thermoelasticity with two-phase lag

This work aims to assess the response of viscoelastic Kelvin–Voigt microscale beams under initial stress. The microbeam is photostimulated by the light emitted by an intense picosecond pulsed laser. The photothermal elasticity model with dual-phase lags, the plasma wave equation and Euler–Bernoulli beam theory are utilized to construct the system equations governing the thermoelastic vibrations of microbeams. Using the Laplace transform technique, the problem is solved analytically and expressions are provided for the distributions of photothermal fields. Taking aluminum as a numerical example, the effect of the pulsed laser duration coefficient, viscoelasticity constants and initial stress on photothermal vibrations has been studied. In addition, a comparison has been made between different models of photo-thermoelasticity to validate the results of the current model. Photo-microdynamic systems might be monolithically integrated on aluminum microbeams using microsurface processing technology as a result of this research.

Integration of fuzzy logic in the SEIRD compartmental model for the analysis of intervention and transmission heterogeneity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics

Different epidemiological compartmental models have been presented to predict the transmission dynamics of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this study, we have proposed a fuzzy rule-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Death ([Formula: see text]) compartmental model considering a new dynamic transmission possibility variable as a function of time and three different fuzzy linguistic intervention variables to delineate the intervention and transmission heterogeneity on SARS-CoV-2 viral infection. We have analyzed the datasets of active cases and total death cases of China and Bangladesh. Using our model, we have predicted active cases and total death cases for China and Bangladesh. We further presented the correspondence of different intervention measures in relaxing the transmission possibility. The proposed model delineates the correspondence between the intervention measures as fuzzy subsets and the predicted active cases and total death cases. The prediction made by our system fitted the collected dataset very well while considering different fuzzy intervention measures. The integration of fuzzy logic in the classical compartmental model also produces more realistic results as it generates a dynamic transmission possibility variable. The proposed model could be used to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 as it deals with the intervention and transmission heterogeneity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.

Numerical framework for unsteady bioconvection flow of third-grade nanofluid over a porous Riga surface with convective Nield approach

The ultra-high significances of thermal radiation, magnetic field and activation energy in thermal enhancement processes allow significant applications in chemical and mechanical engineering, modern technology and various thermal engineering eras. The improvement in energy resources and production became one of the major challenges for researchers and scientists for sustained development in industrial growths. Beside this, the bioconvection assessment in nanomaterials conveys prestigious applications in biotechnology like bio-sensors, enzymes, petroleum industry, bio-fuels and many more. In view of such renewable applications, present exploration discloses unsteady two-dimensional flow of third-grade nanomaterial accommodating gyrotactic microorganisms induced by unsteady stretched Riga sheet in porous medium. The formulated flow problem is further scrutinized by utilizing the chemical reaction, activation energy, thermal radiation and magnetic aspects. The convective Nield constraints are further subjected in the current investigation. Apposite transformations are used to condense the nonlinear developed problem into dimensionless ordinary form. The numerical solution of such similar flow problem is presented via shooting technique. The detailed graphical illustrations of the dimensionless temperature, nanoparticles concentration, velocity and motile microorganisms for physical significance of diverse relevant parameters are deliberated. Furthermore, numerical data of local Sherwood, Nusselt and motile density numbers is designated in tabular form. Study accentuated that velocity increases for higher modified Hartmann and material constants, while the effects of buoyancy ratio and bioconvected Rayleigh numbers are rather opposite. The temperature, microorganism and concentration distributions were enhanced for unsteady parameter. It is also acknowledged that the concentration distribution is enhanced for activating the energy number. Moreover, the microorganism distribution enhances for concentration difference and magneto-porous constants, while bioconvected Lewis and Peclet numbers show conflicting trend.

A novel lattice hydrodynamic model accounting for individual difference of honk effect for two-lane highway under V2X environment

In this work, the individual difference of the honk effect is explored on two lanes via traffic modeling of the lattice model under Vehicle to X (V2X) environment. We study the impact of individual difference corresponding to honk cases on traffic stability through linear stability analysis for a two-lane highway. Furthermore, the mKdV equation under the lane changing phenomena is conducted via nonlinear analysis. Simulation cases for the early time and longtime impact reveal that individual difference of driving characteristics has a distinct impact on two lanes under the whistling environment.

Permutation entropy and statistical analysis of the historical evolution of the Mexican stock market index

The objective of this work is to analyze the Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones (IPC), which is the Mexican stock market index, by using several statistical tools in order to study the tendencies that can shed light on the evolution of the IPC towards a more efficient market. The methodology used is to apply the statistical tools to the Mexican index and compare the results with a mature and well-known market index such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We employ an autocorrelation analysis, and the volatility of the indexes, applied to the daily returns of the closing price on a moving time window during the studied period (1980–2018). Additionally, we perform an order three permutation entropy analysis, which can quantify the disorder present in the time series. Our results show that there is evidence that the IPC has become more mature since its creation and that it can be considered an efficient market since around year 2000. The behavior of the several techniques used shows a similar behavior to the DJIA which is not observed before that year. There are some limitations mainly because there is no high frequency data that would permit a more detailed analysis, specifically in the periods before and after a crisis is located. Our conclusion is that since around the year 2000, the Mexican stock index displays the typical behavior of other mature markets and can be considered as one.