A Term-Structure Model for Dividends and Interest Rates

Traditionally, people values KTB futures contracts using the model based on the cost-of-carry argument. However, the underlying commodity for the KTB futures is non-tradable, and so the cost of carry argument cannot be applied to the KTB futures. This paper regards KTB futures contracts as interest-rate derivatives, and prices them using the Black-Karasinski (B-K) term structure model. This paper documents that (1) the market prices of KTB futures are more close to B-K model price than the price by the cost-of-carry argument, though the KTB futures are generally underpriced in the market even under the B-K model; (2) The extent of underpricing is a decreasing function of the remaining maturity of the futures, and becomes smaller recently; (3) The cost of carry argument relatively overprices the KTB futures, and the degree of overpricing is a decreasing function of interest rates and the remaining maturity of the futures; (4) The daily resettlement in the futures contracts affects the futures price very little; (5) The trading strategies based on the theoretical pricing models produce very high trading profit.

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Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics ◽

10.1515/snde-2012-0024 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Efthymios Argyropoulos ◽

Elias Tzavalis

Keyword(s):

Interest Rates ◽

Term Structure ◽

Rational Expectations ◽

Time Varying ◽

Structure Model ◽

Expectations Hypothesis ◽

Term Structure Model ◽

Term Spread ◽

Term Premium

AbstractThis paper suggests a new empirical methodology of testing the predictions of the term spread between long and short-term interest rates about future changes of the former allowing for term premium effects, according to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. To capture the effects of a time-varying term premium on the term spread, the paper relies on an empirically attractive affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model which assumes that the term structure of interest rates is spanned by three unobserved state variables. To retrieve accurate values of these variables from interest rates series, the paper suggests a new method which can overcome the effects of measurement (or pricing) errors inherent in these series on the estimates of the model. This method is assessed by a Monte Carlo study. Ignoring these errors will lead to biased estimates of term structure models. The empirical results of the paper provide support for the suggested term structure model. They show that this model can efficiently capture the time-varying term premium effects embodied in long-term interest rates, which can explain the failures of term spread to forecast future changes in long-term rates.

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