A Comparative Analysis of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates between the BRICS and G7 Countries

This paper examines the predictive ability of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates in the BRICS and G7 countries by relating each country’s monthly 3‑month Treasury bill rate to 10‑year government bond rates, from May 2003 to May 2018. The panel ARDL model, applying the mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG), and dynamic fixed effects (DFE) estimators, is employed to compare the short‑ and long‑run relationships in both groups of countries. The results show that the expectations hypothesis holds in both BRICS and G7 country groups. In the long run, the short‑term interest rate is able to predict the long-term interest rate in both the BRICS and G7 countries. Interest rates in BRICS indicate rapid adjustment back to the long‑run equilibrium, while the adjustment is sluggish in the G7 block. Based on the findings of the study, the sluggish adjustment to the equilibrium in the G7 gives the impression that the financial crisis had an impact on the term structure of interest rates as the G7 countries were directly affected by the crisis.

Are firms' expectations on the availability of external finance rational, adaptive or regressive?

PurposeThis study investigates which expectation formation mechanism governs Eurozone firms regarding their expectations on external finance availability.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, we link consecutive surveys from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises to bring new evidence on how non-financial corporations shape their expectations on external finance availability.FindingsIn line with the past literature, we demonstrate that the data reject the Rational Expectations hypothesis, and we find evidence in favor of the Adaptive Expectation mechanism.Originality/valueThis is the first study studying firms' expectations of external finance availability, implementing survey data of firms' expectations from the SAFE database on a country level. The formation of firm expectations is vital in directing policymakers in designing appropriate monetary policies, as both the employment and inflation targets of central banks around the world are highly dependent on the firm-level decision process.

Monetary Transmission in the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Spain (1995-2003)

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Spain has changed since EMU establishment. The analysis is based on the fulfillment of the Expectations Hypothesis under rational expectations and the methodology is implemented through a cointegrated bivariate VAR model. The results reveal the existence of monetary transmission in the term structure in the period prior to EMU, even though the evidence is stronger up to the one-year rate. From 1999, the results are only consistent with a weak evidence of monetary transmission.

Disappointment Aversion, Term Structure, and Predictability Puzzles in Bond Markets

We solve a dynamic equilibrium model with generalized disappointment-aversion preferences and continuous state-endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward-sloping term structure of nominal interest rates and a downward-sloping term structure of real interest rates and that it accounts for the failure of the expectations hypothesis. The key ingredients are preferences with disappointment aversion, preference for early resolution of uncertainty, and an endowment economy with three state variables: time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, time-varying expected inflation, and inflation uncertainty. This paper was accepted by Karl Diether, finance.

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis and the New Classicals

This chapter analyses the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), a pillar of forward-looking macroeconomics that emphasizes expectations. It also develops its implications in terms of ‘market efficiency’ and related concepts. It then reviews New Classical Macroeconomics: its main tenets, the ‘Lucas supply function’ that is crucial for much subsequent theory, and the ‘Lucas island model’ that underpins it. The centrepiece ‘Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition’ (PIP) is developed both intuitively and more formally. Subsequently, the chapter reviews one major line of criticism of PIP, the fact that markets may not clear, based in particular on staggered wage setting. Broader criticisms of the REH, including ‘bounded rationality’, are also reviewed. The chapter concludes with yet another landmark contribution of Robert Lucas, namely the ‘Lucas critique’ of activist stabilization policy.

Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields, and Real Bond Yields

This paper presents an equilibrium bond-pricing model that jointly explains the upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves and the violation of the expectations hypothesis. Instead of relying on the inflation risk premium, the ambiguity-averse agent faces different amounts of Knightian uncertainty in the long run versus the short run; hence, the model-implied nominal and real short rate expectations are upward sloping under the agent’s worst-case equilibrium beliefs. The expectations hypothesis roughly holds under investors’ worst-case beliefs. The difference between the worst-case scenario and the true distribution makes realized excess returns on long-term bonds predictable. (JEL D81, D84, E23, E31, E43, E44, G12)

Rationality of Insurance Firms' Forecasts : Results of Unbiasedness and Efficiency Tests

Many applied studies have tried to test the implications of rational expectations hypothesis on survey data. This study provides evidence on the rationality of economic forecasts made by insurance firms in a developing economy-Malaysia. Our unbiasedness test results suggest that anticipated gross revenue and employment are unbiased predictors of actual gross revenue and employment respectively. Furthermore, our efficiency tests results indicate that insurance firms utilized relevant information efficiently at the time the forecasts were made.