Uncertainty and Business Cycle Asymmetry

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Fan Huang ◽  
Sui Luo ◽  
Hung-Jen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry

Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market

1999 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
PARAMSOTHY SILVAPULLE, MERVYN JOSEP SILVAPULLE
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry

scholarly journals IS BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRY INTRINSIC IN INDUSTRIALIZED ECONOMIES?

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1403-1436 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Morley ◽  
Irina B. Panovska
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Underlying Structure ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Intrinsic Characteristic

We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in 10 industrialized economies. Our measure takes changes in the long-run growth rate into account and, by addressing model uncertainty using equal weights on different forecast-based estimates, is robust to different assumptions about the underlying structure of the economy. For all 10 countries in the sample, we find that the estimated output gap has much larger negative movements during recessions than positive movements in expansions, suggesting business cycle asymmetry is an intrinsic characteristic of industrialized economies. Furthermore, the estimated output gap is always strongly negatively correlated with future output growth and unemployment and positively correlated with capacity utilization. It also implies a convex Phillips Curve in many cases. The model-averaged output gap is reliable in real time in the sense of being subject to relatively small revisions.

Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry

1996 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
James B. Ramsey ◽  
Philip Rothman
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry ◽  
Time Irreversibility

scholarly journals Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective

2001 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 713-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence C. Mills
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
Duration Dependence ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry

scholarly journals Leverage and Deepening Business-Cycle Skewness

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 245-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Jensen ◽  
Ivan Petrella ◽  
Søren Hove Ravn ◽  
Emiliano Santoro
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Credit Constraints ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
Dynamic General Equilibrium Model ◽  
The Face

We document that the United States and other G7 economies have been characterized by an increasingly negative business-cycle asymmetry over the last three decades. This finding can be explained by the concurrent increase in the financial leverage of households and firms. To support this view, we devise and estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model with collateralized borrowing and occasionally binding credit constraints. Improved access to credit increases the likelihood that financial constraints become nonbinding in the face of expansionary shocks, allowing agents to freely substitute inter-temporally. Contractionary shocks, however, are further amplified by drops in collateral values, since constraints remain binding. As a result, booms become progressively smoother and more prolonged than busts. Finally, in line with recent empirical evidence, financially driven expansions lead to deeper contractions, as compared with equally sized nonfinancial expansions. (JEL D14, E23, E32, E44)

Testing for business cycle asymmetry: some international evidence

1997 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 603-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan E.H. Speight
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry ◽  
International Evidence

Business cycle asymmetry: evidence from Japan’s decade-long deflation

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (21) ◽  
pp. 1711-1717
Author(s):  
Satoshi Urasawa
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry

scholarly journals Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Morley ◽  
Irina Panovska
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry

A STATE-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRY

2010 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley T. Ewing ◽  
Mark A. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
State Level ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry ◽  
Level Analysis
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