Modelling frameworks for vaccine protection are sorely needed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic with vaccines. We propose such a framework for the BNT162b2 and potentially other vaccines.
It identifies correlates of protection based on live SARS-CoV-2 variants neutralising antibody titres from vaccinated individuals. We applied it to predict vaccine effectiveness in overall populations and age subgroups.
It was validated by predicting effectiveness against the B.1.167.2 (Delta) variant. The predictions, of 51.7% (34%, 69%) after one and of 88.6% (76%, 97%) after two vaccine doses, were close to the corresponding means, 49% and 85.4%, of observations in real-life effectiveness studies. We illustrate its applications to inform decisions, such as about the doses and timing of vaccine boosters.
Development, Acceptance, and Use of Immunologic Correlates of Protection in Monitoring the Effectiveness of Combination Vaccines