Estimation of a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule: A Time-Varying Parameter Model using Ex-Post Data

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang-Jin Kim ◽  
Charles R. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Forward Looking

A NOTE ON TIME VARIATION IN A FORWARD-LOOKING MONETARY POLICY RULE: EVIDENCE FROM EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (S3) ◽  
pp. 422-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Kundan Kishor
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Time Variation ◽  
Monetary Economics ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Reaction Functions ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Monetary Policy Reaction Functions ◽  
Forward Looking

This paper estimates time-varying forward-looking monetary policy reaction functions for the central banks of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. We utilize the framework developed by Kim [Economics Letters91 (2006) 21–26] and Kim and Nelson [Journal of Monetary Economics(2006) 1949–1966] to deal with the issue of endogeneity in a time varying–parameter model. Our results find substantial time variation in the conduct of monetary policy in these four countries, which cannot be adequately captured by the conventional fixed-coefficient approach. Our findings suggest that there was a significant decline in the Bank of France's and the Bank of Italy's response to the German interest rate in 1992, and it coincided with the breakdown of the exchange rate management system in Europe. Our results suggest that the Bank of England was slower than the Bundesbank to increase its response to expected inflation, as its response to inflation became more than one-for-one only in the early 1980s.

scholarly journals The Time-Varying Effects of Monetary Policy on House Prices in China: An Application of TVP-VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weina Cai ◽  
Sen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The boom of housing market in China in recent years has attracted great concerns from all over the world. How monetary policy affects house prices in China becomes an essential topic. This paper studies the time-varying effects of monetary policy on house prices in China during 2005.7-2017.10, by using a time-varying parameter VAR model. This paper obtains three interesting results. First, there are time-varying features of the responses of house prices to monetary policy shocks half-year and 1-year ahead, no matter through interest rate channel or through credit channel. Second, interest rate channel and credit channel have been enhanced since financial crisis in 2008. Third, the responses of nominal house prices to monetary policy in China are mainly driven by the responses of real house prices, instead of inflation. Finally, this paper gives proper suggestions for each finding respectively to central bank in China.

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