Analysis of Macroeconomics Stability Control of ICI Countries (Indonesia, China, India) Based on Transmission of Monetary Policy through Interest Rate Channel

This study aims to analyze variable control of macroeconomic stability based on monetary policy transmission through interest rate channels in Indonesia, China, India (ICI). Variables used in the interest rate are rill interest rates, consumption, investment, gross domestic product, and inflation. This study used secondary data from 2000 to 2019. The results of the PVECM analysis through the interest rate channel show that the control of economic stability of the ICI country is carried out by investment variables and gross domestic product in the short term, while in the long run it is carried out by consumption, investment and gross domestic product. The results of the IRF analysis are the response stability of all variables is formed in the medium and long term periods. The results of the FEVD analysis show that there are variables that have the greatest contribution in the variable itself either in the short, medium, long term. The results of the interaction analysis of each variable transmission of monetary policy through interest rates can maintain and control the economic stability of the ICI country. Keywords: Interest Rate Channel, Interest Rate, Consumption, Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Inflation.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE FUNCTIONING OF THE INTEREST RATE CHANNEL OF MONETARY TRANSMISSION IN UKRAINE

Ensuring a high level of monetary regulation of the economy and improving the efficiency of the central bank's monetary policy largely depend on how effective is the mechanisms of transmission of monetary impulses from the decisions of monetary authorities to market participants through the use of monetary transmission. Given that in the current environment, interest rate policy is the main component of the monetary policy of the vast majority of central banks, interest rate channel is important in the process of monetary transmission. This is also due to the fact that in the monetary transmission system, the interest channel is most closely linked to the mechanisms of functioning of monetary, credit and currency channels. Solving this problem requires the identification the role of the interest channel in the mechanism of monetary transmission, the peculiarities of its function in current conditions, revealing clear causal links and the basic principles of the systematic regularity of monetary development. In addition, it is necessary to identify clear criteria and methods for assessing the effectiveness of the channel, as well as systems and indicators, which allow the use of several parameters in the flow of interest to the channel on the basis of monetary and macroeconomic indicators. The conducted research is based on the statistics of the National Bank of Ukraine for 2005-2020, the system of economic-statistical and economic-mathematical methods, as well as on the calculation of indicators, and is characterize the reliability of models. Quantitative assessment of the efficiency and operating conditions of the interest rate channel of the monetary transmission mechanism should be based on the basic principles of monetary theory and a reliable statistical base. This suggests ways to improve the efficiency of the interest rate channel through the central bank's interest rate policy, adequate money market conditions, and prudent government borrowing policies in the domestic market to ensure efficient transmission of monetary impulses from the central bank to the real sector of the economy. The results of the study can be used to substantiate the forecast parameters of monetary indicators of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and the conditions of effective functioning of the interest rate channel of monetary transmission in Ukraine in the medium term.

The “black box” of the interest rate channel of monetary policy

In the economic literature authors believe that central banks manage long-term interest rates on loans through the short-term money market interest rate in order to maintain price stability and balanced economic growth. However, macroeconomic theory tells extremely sparingly about the interest rate channel of monetary policy. In general terms, it conducts changes through a term premium and expectations in the government securities market. In applied research, economists only observe the final reaction of lending rates to the non-financial sector. Economists traditionally believe that the interest rate channel requires a developed financial sector. In some cases, in particular, at zero rates or in a small open economy that depends on the exchange rate, the interest rate channel works poorly. However, its effectiveness can be maintained without developed financial markets. The answer is the pricing of banking loans.

Is the Interest Rate Channel still working? Post-Crisis Evidence from German SMEs

Using a unique dataset from German small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we test whether pessimistic business expectations have impeded the functioning of the interest rate channel during the post-crisis period. We estimate firms’ user cost elasticity of capital for the period 2008–2015, and test whether this elasticity differs for firms that hold pessimistic business expectations compared with those that hold positive expectations. Our results show that SMEs have significantly responded to changes in the user cost of capital during the post-crisis period. However, the results are mainly driven by SMEs that hold positive business expectations. Firms having neutral or negative expectations depict a much smaller user cost elasticity, which is not statistically different from zero. Our results reveal the limitations of an expansionary monetary policy and confirm the important role that expectations play for firms’ investment decisions.

Var analysis and monetary transmission mechanism in Kazakhstan

We explore monetary policy transmission by estimating VAR impulse response functions to illustrate the Kazakhstan economy’s response to unexpected changes in policy.This article helps to evaluate the work of the main channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, namely, the work of the interest rate channel, exchange rate, and lending channel in the Republic of Kazakhstan, by the help of vector regression model (VAR). It was revealed that the main transmission channel in the study period from 2005 to 2019 in Kazakhstan was the exchange rate channel.The other two remaining channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism (the bank lending channel and the interest rate channel) were of secondary importance.We find a significant exchange rate pass-through to prices, and interest rate policy following, rather than leading, financial market developments. Our estimated monetary policy reaction function shows the central bank striking a balance between real exchange rate stability and containing inflation. We discuss dollarization, administrative interventions, and other features complicating monetary policy transmission, review specific constraints and vulnerabilities, and conclude with observations on possible measures that could raise the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kazakhstan.

A Model of Monetary Transmission Mechanism

The point of this model is that total investment in the economy is not determined by the equilibrium of the interest rate alone, but by the equilibrium of both the interest rate and the market price of risk (risk premium). In this model, the lower the discount rate or risk aversion of people, the higher the total investment. This model shows that when the interest rate is not at the zero lower bound, the total investment is only slightly affected by people's risk aversion, but at the zero lower bound, the total investment is inversely proportional to people's risk aversion. In addition, this model is used to analyze monetary policy. It is shown that the interest rate channel and the credit channel can be analyzed with the same formula and the effect of the interest rate channel is small. This explains why a central bank can greatly increase the total investment with small changes in the interest rate. Additionally, this paper analyzes fiscal policy, helicopter money, and government bonds.

The Effect of Bank Heterogeneity on the Interest Rate Channel in Lebanon

The effect of bank heterogeneity on the transmission of monetary policy is capturing an increasing attention, and the debate on how bank specific characteristics may determine their reaction to monetary actions is mounting. This paper participates in this flow of research by studying the reaction of 40 banks operating in Lebanon between 1994 and 2017, to a change in lending interest rate, taking into consideration: size, market power, capitalisation, credit risk, and liquidity. The empirical results show that the impact of a change in interest rate on loan supply depends on bank market power and bank liquidity only. Consequently, interest rate channel in Lebanon operates through banks with high market power and banks with high liquidity stocks.