scholarly journals Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebiyaw Sitotaw Takele ◽  
Geremew Sahilu Gebre ◽  
Azage Gebreyohannes Gebremariam ◽  
Agizew Nigussie Engida
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Upper Blue Nile basin using an integrated climate and hydrological model. The impact of climate change on water resources is being assessed using the regional climate model (RCM) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Future climate scenarios have been developed for the 2030s (2021–2040) and the 2050s (2041–2060). The study found that the projected rainfall shows a decreasing trend and is not statistically significant, while the temperature shows an increasing trend and is statistically significant. Due to the sharp rise in temperature, the annual evapotranspiration increased by about 10.4%. This and the declining trend of rainfall will reduce streamflow up to 54%, surface runoff up to 31%, and water yield up to 31%. Climate change causes seasonal and annual fluctuations in the water balance components. However, the projected seasonal changes are much greater than the annual changes. Therefore, the results of this study will be useful to basin planners, policymakers, and water resources managers in developing adaptation strategies to offset the adverse effects of climate change in the Upper Blue Nile basin.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on the hydrology of Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia: a review

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1539-1550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebre Gelete ◽  
Huseyin Gokcekus ◽  
Tagesse Gichamo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change alters the spacial and temporal availability of water resources by affecting the hydrologic cycle. The main objective of this paper is to review the climate change effect on the water resources of the Blue Nile River, Ethiopia. The impact of climate change on water resources is highly significant as all natural ecosystems and humans are heavily dependent on water. It alters precipitation, temperature, and streamflow of the Blue Nile river basin which is threatening the lives and livelihoods of people and life-supporting systems. Rainfall within the Blue Nile river basin is highly erratic and seasonal due to it being located in the inter-tropical convergent zone. The temperature and sediment load are shown to increase in the future while the rainfall and streamflow are decreasing. The Blue Nile basin is characterized by highly erosive rainfall, erodible soil, and shrinking forest cover. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation measures should be applied by considering these characteristics of the basin. Watershed management methods like afforestation and water conservation are recommended to reduce the impact on the Blue Nile basin.

scholarly journals Influence of downscaling methods in projecting climate change impact on hydrological extremes of upper Blue Nile basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 7857-7896 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Taye ◽  
P. Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Downscaling Method ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Good For ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. Methods from two statistical downscaling categories were used to investigate the impact of climate change on high rainfall and flow extremes of the upper Blue Nile basin. The main downscaling differences considered were on the rainfall variable while a generally similar method was applied for temperature. The applied downscaling methods are a stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG, and an advanced change factor method, the Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM). These were applied on 10 GCM runs and two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). The downscaled rainfall and evapotranspiration were input into a calibrated and validated lumped conceptual model. The future simulations were conducted for 2050s and 2090s horizon and were compared with 1980–2000 control period. From the results all downscaling methods agree in projecting increase in temperature for both periods. Nevertheless, the change signal on the rainfall was dependent on the climate model and the downscaling method applied. LARS weather generator was good for monthly statistics although caution has to be taken when it is applied for impact analysis dealing with extremes, as it showed a deviation from the extreme value distribution's tail shape. Contrary, the QPM method was good for extreme cases but only for good quality daily climate model data. The study showed the choice of downscaling method is an important factor to be considered and results based on one downscaling method may not give the full picture. Regardless, the projections on the extreme high flows and the mean main rainy season flow mostly showed a decreasing change signal for both periods. This is either by decreasing rainfall or increasing evapotranspiration depending on the downscaling method.

scholarly journals Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Heliyon ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
pp. e00771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Roth ◽  
Tatenda Lemann ◽  
Gete Zeleke ◽  
Alemtsehay Teklay Subhatu ◽  
Tibebu Kassawmar Nigussie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abeyou Worqlul ◽  
Yihun Taddele Dile ◽  
Essayas Ayana ◽  
Jaehak Jeong ◽  
Anwar Adem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Headwater Catchments ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Gilgel Abbay Watershed, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Water ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailu Ayele ◽  
Ming-Hsu Li ◽  
Ching-Pin Tung ◽  
Tzu-Ming Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

scholarly journals Changes in ecosystem service values strongly influenced by human activities in contrasting agro-ecological environments

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulatu Liyew Berihun ◽  
Atsushi Tsunekawa ◽  
Nigussie Haregeweyn ◽  
Mitsuru Tsubo ◽  
Ayele Almaw Fenta
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Ecosystem Service ◽  
Cultivated Land ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Grazing Land ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Lulc Changes ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract Background Evaluating the impacts of land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes on ecosystem service values (ESVs) is essential for sustainable use and management of ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the impact of human activity driven LULC changes on ESVs over the period 1982–2016/17 in contrasting agro-ecological environments: Guder (highland), Aba Gerima (midland), and Debatie (lowland) watersheds of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Results During the study period, the continuous expansion of cultivated land at the expense of natural vegetation (bushland, forest, and grazing land) severely reduced the total ESV by about US$ 58 thousand (35%) in Aba Gerima and US$ 31 thousand (29%) in Debatie watersheds. In contrast, the unprecedented expansion of plantations, mainly through the planting of Acacia decurrens, led, from 2006, to a ESV rebound by about US$ 71 thousand (54%) in Guder watershed, after it had decreased by about US$ 61 thousand (32%) between 1982 and 2006. The reduction in natural forest area was the major contributor to the loss of total ESV in the study watersheds, ranging from US$ 31 thousand (63%) in Debatie to US$ 96.9 thousand (70%) in Guder between 1982 and 2016/17. On an area-specific basis, LULC changes reduced the average ESV from US$ 560 ha−1 year−1 (1982) in Guder to US$ 306 ha−1 year−1 (2017) in Debatie watersheds. Specific ESVs such as provisioning (mainly as food production) and regulating services (mainly as erosion control and climate regulation) accounted for most of the total ESVs estimated for the study watersheds. Conclusions In most cases, the total and specific ESVs of the watersheds were negatively associated with the population growth, which in turn was positively associated with the expansion of cultivated land over the study period. In Guder, however, ESVs were positively associated with population growth, especially after 2012. This is mainly due to the expansion of Acacia decurrens plantations. Our results suggest, therefore, that future policy measures and directions should focus on improving vegetation cover through planting multipurpose trees such as Acacia decurrens to prevent future loss of ESV in the midland and lowland regions of the Upper Blue Nile basin and beyond. However, caution must be taken during plantation of invasive species as they may have undesirable consequences.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document