Quantifying the impacts of land cover change on hydrological responses in the Mahanadi river basin in India

The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of land cover change on the hydrological responses of the Mahanadi river basin, a large river basin in India. Commonly, such assessments are accomplished by using distributed hydrological models in conjunction with different land use scenarios. However, these models, through their complex interactions among the model parameters to generate hydrological processes, can introduce significant uncertainties to the hydrological projections. Therefore, we seek to further understand the uncertainties associated with model parameterization in those simulated hydrological responses due to different land cover scenarios. We performed a sensitivity-guided model calibration of a physically semi-distributed model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, within a Monte Carlo framework to generate behavioural models that can yield equally good or acceptable model performances for subcatchments of the Mahanadi river basin. These behavioural models are then used in conjunction with historical and future land cover scenarios from the recently released Land-Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset to generate hydrological predictions and related uncertainties from behavioural model parameterization. The LUH2 dataset indicates a noticeable increase in the cropland (23.3 % cover) at the expense of forest (22.65 % cover) by the end of year 2100 compared to the baseline year, 2005. As a response, simulation results indicate a median percent increase in the extreme flows (defined as the 95th percentile or higher river flow magnitude) and mean annual flows in the range of 1.8 % to 11.3 % across the subcatchments. The direct conversion of forested areas to agriculture (of the order of 30 000 km2) reduces the leaf area index, which subsequently reduces the evapotranspiration (ET) and increases surface runoff. Further, the range of behavioural hydrological predictions indicated variation in the magnitudes of extreme flows simulated for the different land cover scenarios; for instance, uncertainty in scenario labelled “Far Future” ranges from 17 to 210 m3 s−1 across subcatchments. This study indicates that the recurrent flood events occurring in the Mahanadi river basin might be influenced by the changes in land use/land cover (LULC) at the catchment scale and suggests that model parameterization represents an uncertainty which should be accounted for in the land use change impact assessment.

Mechanisms of hydrological responses to volcanic eruptions in the Asian monsoon and westerlies-dominated subregions

Explosive volcanic eruptions affect surface climate especially in monsoon regions, but responses vary in different regions and to volcanic aerosol injection (VAI) in different hemispheres. Here we use six ensemble members from last millennium experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, to investigate the mechanism of regional hydrological responses to different hemispheric VAI in the Asian monsoon region (AMR). It brings a significant drying effect over the AMR after northern hemisphere VAI (NHVAI), spatially, a distinct “wet get drier, dry gets wetter” response pattern emerges with significant drying effect in the wettest area (RWA) but significant wetting effect in the driest area (RDA) of the AMR. After southern hemisphere VAI (SHVAI), it shows a significant wetting effect over the AMR, but spatial response pattern is not that clear due to small aerosol magnitude. The mechanism of the hydrological impact relates to the indirect change of atmospheric circulation due to the direct radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. The decreased thermal contrast between the land and the ocean after NHVAI results in weakened EASM and SASM. This changes the moisture transport and cloud formation in the monsoon and westerlies-dominated subregions. The subsequent radiative effect and physical feedbacks of local clouds lead to different drying and wetting effects in different areas. Results here indicate that future volcanic eruptions may alleviate the uneven distribution of precipitation in the AMR, which should be considered in the near-term decadal prediction and future strategy of local adaptation to global warming. The local hydrological responses and mechanisms found here can also provide reference to stratospheric aerosol engineering.

Evaluation of Multiple Satellite-Based Precipitation Products for the Rainfall-Runoff Simulation over a Typical Catchment of Southwest China

Five non-real time satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs), including TMPA 3B42V7, CMORPH CRT, PERSIANN-CDR, GSMaP_MVK and GSMaP_Gauge, were evaluated over the Xijiang Basin. By driving XAJ model with each of the SPPs and gauge-based interpolation precipitation data to compare the hydrological responses at Wuzhou Station during the period of 2010–2017, this study also evaluated the applicability of these SPPs in rainfall-runoff simulation over the Xijaing Basin. The results showed that: (1) GSMaP_Gauge had highest accuracy, then are CMORPH CRT and TMPA 3B42V7, respectively, and finally are PERSIANN-CDR and GSMaP_MVK; (2) Among the five SPPs, CMORPH CRT, GSMaP_Gauge and TMPA-3B42 V7 have comparable performance in rainfall-runoff simulation, with NSE value lower than that generated by driving gauge-based interpolation precipitation and obviously higher than that of PERSIANN-CDR, and the uncorrected SPP, i.e., GSMaP_MVK, performs worst because of large systematic errors.

Earthquake-induced hydrologic changes in the geoengineered schist landslides of Cromwell Gorge, Central Otago

<p>Geoengineered groundwater systems located within seven large (> 100 ha surface area), deep-seated, slow-creep schist landslides in Cromwell Gorge (Otago, New Zealand) are observed to respond systematically to 10 large (>Mw6.2), regional earthquakes at epicentral distances of 130-630 km. The permeabilities of the schist landslides have previously been reported to be c. 1 x 10⁻¹⁷ - 4 x 10⁻⁶ m2 and the permeability structure is dominated by large fracture zones. Of the 315 hydrological instruments in the gorge for which data have been analysed, 21 monitoring well piezometers record repeated metre- or centimetre-scale groundwater level changes, and 12 underground V-notch weirs record elevated flow rates induced by the same earthquakes. Groundwater level changes exhibit consistent temporal characteristics at all monitoring sites, namely a time to peak pressure change on the order of one month and a subsequent recovery period on the order of one year. Changes in weir flow rate are near-instantaneous with maximum flow rates reached within 0-6 hours, followed by recession periods on the order of one month. Hydrological responses to different earthquakes at each monitoring site are systematic in terms of polarity and amplitude. This comprehensive dataset enables consistent patterns in the amplitude, time to peak pressure change and recovery time of groundwater level changes, and elevated weir discharge volumes in response to earthquake shaking to be documented. Earthquakes inducing hydrological responses have been categorised into five categories based on shaking characteristics (duration, bandwidth and amplitude). Larger hydrological responses and proportionally shorter time to peak pressure change and recovery time are associated with long duration (25-50 s or longer), high-amplitude, broad bandwidth shaking. The larger amplitudes of hydrological response and proportionally shorter times to peak pressure change and recovery times, are interpreted to represent greater temporary enhancement of the landslides hydraulic properties, particularly permeability. Understanding how earthquakes can enhance or otherwise affect hydraulic properties such as permeability in fractured reservoirs is intrinsically important and may prove of economic utility for both the geothermal and hydrocarbon energy sectors.</p>

Earthquake-induced hydrologic changes in the geoengineered schist landslides of Cromwell Gorge, Central Otago

<p>Geoengineered groundwater systems located within seven large (> 100 ha surface area), deep-seated, slow-creep schist landslides in Cromwell Gorge (Otago, New Zealand) are observed to respond systematically to 10 large (>Mw6.2), regional earthquakes at epicentral distances of 130-630 km. The permeabilities of the schist landslides have previously been reported to be c. 1 x 10⁻¹⁷ - 4 x 10⁻⁶ m2 and the permeability structure is dominated by large fracture zones. Of the 315 hydrological instruments in the gorge for which data have been analysed, 21 monitoring well piezometers record repeated metre- or centimetre-scale groundwater level changes, and 12 underground V-notch weirs record elevated flow rates induced by the same earthquakes. Groundwater level changes exhibit consistent temporal characteristics at all monitoring sites, namely a time to peak pressure change on the order of one month and a subsequent recovery period on the order of one year. Changes in weir flow rate are near-instantaneous with maximum flow rates reached within 0-6 hours, followed by recession periods on the order of one month. Hydrological responses to different earthquakes at each monitoring site are systematic in terms of polarity and amplitude. This comprehensive dataset enables consistent patterns in the amplitude, time to peak pressure change and recovery time of groundwater level changes, and elevated weir discharge volumes in response to earthquake shaking to be documented. Earthquakes inducing hydrological responses have been categorised into five categories based on shaking characteristics (duration, bandwidth and amplitude). Larger hydrological responses and proportionally shorter time to peak pressure change and recovery time are associated with long duration (25-50 s or longer), high-amplitude, broad bandwidth shaking. The larger amplitudes of hydrological response and proportionally shorter times to peak pressure change and recovery times, are interpreted to represent greater temporary enhancement of the landslides hydraulic properties, particularly permeability. Understanding how earthquakes can enhance or otherwise affect hydraulic properties such as permeability in fractured reservoirs is intrinsically important and may prove of economic utility for both the geothermal and hydrocarbon energy sectors.</p>

Conservation Policy Changes in Protected Areas on Hilltops: Effects on Hydrological Response in A Small Watershed.

Public policies affecting land use/land cover also have an impact on water resource availability, and hilltop protected areas are a relevant factor in ensuring continued availability of water resources. The legislation ruling the delimitation of protected areas on hilltops has changed at the national level in 2012 and in Rio de Janeiro state in 2014. However, these environmental legislation changes did not take into account the feedback effects of restricting protected areas to hilltops on the regularity of hydrological responses in watersheds. As such, this manuscript sought to analyze the contribution of hilltop-only protected areas to continued water availability. We analyzed hydrological responses in the São João river watershed, which provides water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses in the Região dos Lagos municipalities of Rio de Janeiro state. Our results show that designating only hilltops as protected areas, as prescribed under the new pieces of legislation, does not prevent abrupt changes in hydrological responses that can lead to changes in streamflow volume and regularity as well as increases in sediment flows, which may compromise drainage systems and continued water supply due to reservoir silting. Therefore, we conclude that protecting hilltops only, as established under current Brazilian legislation, is not sufficient to safeguard the environmental function of maintaining water resource availability.

Modeling and interpreting hydrological responses of sustainable urban drainage systems with explainable machine learning methods

Sustainable urban drainage systems (SuDS) are decentralized stormwater management practices that mimic natural drainage processes. The hydrological processes of SuDS are often modeled using process-based models. However, it can require considerable effort to set up these models. This study thus proposes a machine learning (ML) method to directly learn the statistical correlations between the hydrological responses of SuDS and the forcing variables at sub-hourly timescales from observation data. The proposed methods are applied to two SuDS catchments with different sizes, SuDS practice types, and data availabilities in the USA for discharge prediction. The resulting models have high prediction accuracies (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, >0.70). ML explanation methods are then employed to derive the basis of each ML prediction, based on which the hydrological processes being modeled are then inferred. The physical realism of the inferred hydrological processes is then compared to that would be expected based on the domain-specific knowledge of the system being modeled. The inferred processes of some models, however, are found to be physically implausible. For instance, negative contributions of rainfall to runoff have been identified in some models. This study further empirically shows that an ML model's ability to provide accurate predictions can be uncorrelated with its ability to offer plausible explanations to the physical processes being modeled. Finally, this study provides a high-level overview of the practices of inferring physical processes from the ML modeling results and shows both conceptually and empirically that large uncertainty exists in every step of the inference processes. In summary, this study shows that ML methods are a useful tool for predicting the hydrological responses of SuDS catchments, and the hydrological processes inferred from modeling results should be interpreted cautiously due to the existence of large uncertainty in the inference processes.