<p class="Abstrak">Prediksi kelulusan dibutuhkan oleh manajemen perguruan tinggi dalam menentukan kebijakan preventif terkait pencegahan dini kasus drop out. Lama masa studi setiap mahasiswa bisa disebabkan dengan berbagai faktor. Dengan menggunakan <em>data mining</em> algoritma <em>naive bayes</em> dan <em>neural network</em> dapat dilakukan prediksi kelulusan mahasiswa di STMIK Widya Cipta Dharma (WiCiDa) Samarinda . Atribut yang digunakan yaitu, umur saat masuk kuliah, klasifikasi kota asal Sekolah Menengah Atas, pekerjaan ayah, program studi, kelas, jumlah saudara, dan Indeks Prestasi Kumulatif (IPK). Sampel mahasiswa yang lulus dan <em>drop-out</em> pada tahun 2011 sampai 2019 dijadikan sebagai data <em>training</em> dan data <em>testing</em>. Sedangkan angkatan 2015–2018 digunakan sebagai data target yang akan diprediksi masa studinya. Sebanyak 3229 mahasiswa, 1769 sebagai data <em>training</em>, 321 sebagai data <em>testing</em>, dan 1139 sebagai data target. Semua data diambil dari data mahasiswa program strata 1, dan tidak mengikut sertakan data mahasiswa D3 dan alih jenjang/transfer. Dari data <em>testing </em>diperoleh tingkat akurasi hanya 57,63%. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan banyaknya kelemahan dari hasil prediksi <em>naive bayes</em> dikarenakan tingkat akurasi kevalidannya tergolong tidak terlalu tinggi. Sedangkan akurasi prediksi <em>neural network</em> adalah 72,58%, sehingga metode alternatif inilah yang lebih baik. Proses evaluasi dan analisis dilakukan untuk melihat dimana letak kesalahan dan kebenaran dalam hasil prediksi masa studi.</p><div><div><p><em><strong>Abstract</strong></em></p><p class="Abstract"><em>Graduation predictions are required by the higher education institution preventive policies related to the early prevention of drop-out cases. The duration of study, for each student can be caused by various factors. By using the data mining algorithm Naive bayes and neural network, the student graduation in STMIK Widya Cipta Dharma (WiCiDa) can be predicted. The attributes used are as follows: age at admission, classification of cities from high school, father’s occupation, study program, class, number of siblings, and grade point average (GPA). Samples of students who graduated and dropped out between year 2011 and 2019 were used as training data and testing data. While the year class of 2015to 2018 is used as the target data, which will be predicted during the study period. According to the data mining algorithm Naive bayes, there are 3229 students; 1769 as training data, 321 as testing data, and 1139 as target data. All data is taken from students enrolled in undergraduate program and does not include data on diploma students and transfer student. From the testing data, an accuracy rate only 57.63%. The other side, prediction accuracy of the neural network is 72.58%, so this alternative method is the best chosen. The research results show the many weaknesses of the results of prediction of Naive bayes because the level of accuracy of its validity is not high. The evaluation and analysis process are conducted to see where the errors and truths are in the results of the study period predictions.</em></p><p><em><strong><br /></strong></em></p></div></div>
Data Mining Algorithm Based on Fuzzy Neural Network
