scholarly journals Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S.

Author(s):  
Juan Dolado ◽  
Ramón María-Dolores Pedrero ◽  
Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia
2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 491-503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophocles Mavroeidis

I revisit the question of indeterminacy in US monetary policy using limited-information identification-robust methods. I find that the conclusions of Clarida, Galí, and Gernter (2000) that policy was inactive before 1979 are robust, but the evidence over the Volcker-Greenspan periods is inconclusive. I show that this is in fact consistent with policy being active over that period. Problems of identification also arise because policy reaction has been more gradual recently. At a methodological level, the paper demonstrates that identification issues should be taken seriously, and that identification-robust methods can be informative even when they produce wide confidence sets. (E31, E32, E52, E65,)


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