EFFICIENT SEISMIC PERFORMANCE ESTIMATION METHOD BY SURROGATE MODELING BASED ON ADAPTIVE KRIGING AND MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO

Author(s):  
Masaru KITAHARA ◽  
Matteo BROGGI ◽  
Michael BEER
Author(s):  
Junhong Liu ◽  
Huapeng Wu ◽  
Heikki Handroos ◽  
Heikki Haario

A parameter estimation method is presented by an example of an electrohydraulic position servo. The method is based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. The method allows utilization of noisy measurement data in identification process, making use of original physical data possible without the requirement of a filter. The method seeks for the best fitting point estimate of the unknown model parameter vector, but the solution to the parameter estimation problem is given as a statistical distribution that contains “all” the possible parameter combinations. The robustness of the model developed with the proposed method is further demonstrated by verification in operating conditions that are independent of each other and the one used in the identification step. Results show that the system model with the hybrid leakage formula for the studied valve describes the system dynamics more precisely and matches the real responses better.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Ulfa Destiarina ◽  
Mustika Hadijati ◽  
Desy Komalasari ◽  
Nurul Fitriyani

In parameter estimation, sometimes there are several problems that require the completion of a mixture distribution. This study aimed to apply the parameter estimation of exponential and Weibull mixture distribution in simulation data using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method. The results obtained indicate that the analytic calculations of parameter estimation were more accurate than the calculations with the help of software, based on the terms of the suitability of the theory and its integration process.


1994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan E. Gelfand ◽  
Sujit K. Sahu

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