Durable Goods Adoption and the Consumer Discount Factor: A Case Study of the Norwegian Book Market

We exploit a change in Norway’s fixed book pricing policies to construct exclusion restrictions with which to identify consumers’ discount factor. We assume that the policy change generated an unanticipated, exogenous shock to consumers’ expectations about future price cuts. Our findings suggest that consumers are much more impatient than would be implied by the real rate of interest, challenging the standard assumed rate of discounting in the extant literature on dynamic demand estimation. The high rate of consumer impatience is consistent with laboratory studies in the behavioral economics and decision-making literatures. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.

REFLECTION OF TWO LAWS OF SPELLING IN THE SPEECH OF UKRAINIAN RESPONDENTS OF THE DIASPORA: NORMS AND DEVIATIONS

The article is devoted to the oral speech of Ukrainian diaspora’s youth (America, Canada, Italy, the Czech Republic, Poland, Germany, Moldova, the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic) at the synchronous level, in particular the pronunciation features of the Ukrainian language. Based on the poll the normativeness and historical organicity are proved. Also, pronunciation problems and orthoepic deviations are indicated; the percentage of mastery of orthoepy of sound combinations was determined, in particular, the pronunciation of hushing sounds before sibilants and vice versa in a wide local and social representation of foreign countries. Our research aims to try to determine the percentage of orthoepy, to identify, analyze and describe typical pronunciation mistakes, in particular the pronunciation of hushing sounds before sibilants and vice versa in a wide local and social representation abroad. Our task is to analyze the speech of Ukrainian respondents in the diaspora, to indicate the stability and instability of a particular norm; to trace the reflection of the pronunciation of these sound combinations in old written notes, and compare with the speech of Ukrainian respondents in Ukraine. The object of the research is Ukrainian speech of the diaspora of different spheres and age groups. The subject of the research is the mastery of orthoepic norms of the modern Ukrainian language, in particular the orthoepy of sound combinations (hushing sounds before sibilants; sibilants before hushing sounds). The results of a poll are the actual material of the study. It is 100 recordings lasting 300 minutes (5 hours). The poll was attended by 100 people of Ukrainian origin who lives abroad: 10 residents of the United States, 10 residents of Canada, 30 residents of Europe - Poland (2), Germany (3), Italy (5), the Czech Republic (10), Moldova (10) and 50 students of Taras Shevchenko University (Tiraspol, Transnistria). The informants live there for 10 years. They should read aloud and record the words for the analysis of the pronunciation of sibilants before hushing sounds (in the prefixes роз-, без-, з-; in the middle of the word). Thus, the fixation of hushing sounds instead of sibilants is a common phenomenon and can be traced in many monuments of different periods, but the real rate of pronunciation sibilants before hushing sounds by foreign respondents is 26%, by all informants (Ukrainian and foreign together) is 35 %; pronunciation of sibilants before hushing sounds residents of foreign origin of Ukrainian origin is 14% and by all informants in general also 14%. Undoubtedly, we consider these norms to be weak, and if we take into account the gender factor, they are mostly observed by women, both in Ukraine and abroad. In the speech of most men, we trace the pronunciation of the pronunciation [чц '] as [ц'], [шс '] as [с':]. We see the prospect of further research in the study of orthoepic speech deviations of modern youth of the Ukrainian diaspora, in particular in the pronunciation of other sound combinations.

The Influence of Media Powtoon on the Ability of Writing Procedure Texts for VII Class Students of Junior High School 3 Pakkat

This study aims to determine the effect of Powtoon media on the ability to write procedural texts for class VII students of SMP Negeri 3 Pakkat, Academic Year 2020/2021. The population in this study amounted to 62 people, and the sample of this study amounted to 32 students who were taken by a simple random sampling process. The research method used in this research is the experimental method. Hypothesis testing using the "t" test. From the data processing, the average pretest = 63.81, standard deviation = 9.38, standard error = 1.68. In the posttest, the mean = 83.62, standard deviation = 5.08, standard error = 0.91. Based on the normality test, the results of the pretest and posttest were normally distributed. For the homogeneity test, the F value is obtained from the table with the real rate = 0.05 or Fcount < Ftable or 3.40 < 4.17. This proves that the sample states that the variance of the two variables is homogeneous. The results of the "t" test obtained a value of to = 11.72. After to is known, then the value will be consulted with table 1 at a significant level of 5% of 2.03. Based on the calculations that have been done, it can be seen that to > t table is 11.72 > 2.03. Thus, Ho (nil hypothesis) is rejected, and Ha (alternative hypothesis) is accepted. This proves that there is an influence of Powtoon media on the ability to write procedural texts for Class VII students of SMP Negeri 3 Pakkat, Academic Year 2020/2021.

The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market

Social discount rates (SDRs) are crucial for evaluating the costs of climate change. We show that the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs is the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate. Empirical interest rate models that allow for shifts in this equilibrium real rate find that it has declined notably since the 1990s, and this decline implies that the entire term structure of SDRs has shifted lower as well. Accounting for this new normal of persistently lower interest rates substantially boosts estimates of the social cost of carbon and supports a climate policy with stronger carbon mitigation strategies.

The Optimal Spending Rate versus the Expected Real Return of a Sovereign Wealth Fund

We consider a sovereign wealth fund that invests broadly in the international financial markets. The influx to the fund has stopped. We adopt the life cycle model and demonstrate that the optimal spending rate from the fund is significantly less than the fund’s expected real rate of return. The optimal spending rate ensures that the fund will last “forever”. Spending the expected return will deplete the fund with probability one. Moreover, this strategy is inconsistent with optimal portfolio choice. Our results are contrary to the idea that it is sustainable to spend the expected return of a sovereign wealth fund.

Is zero the safe real rate?

The current economic debate with regards to the secular trend of ever lower, even negative, safe real interest rates is dominated by Keynesian, neoclassical and Austrian explanations. The former (two) argue that the interdependence phenomena of a global savings glut and a secular stagnation cause an oversupply of savings and thus drive down rates. From this position, central bank merely react to market forces. The latter dissent and argue that it was rather the other way around and an asymmetric central bank policy aimed at propping up equity prices led to the secular stagnation now quoted for its justification. In contrast, from the perspective of a critique of ideology, safe real rates where neither driven down by market forces nor central banks but by the weight of being not reasonably safe but riskless. Specifically, I argue that by equating the riskless return with the short-term interest rate, Black and Scholes (1973) state a tautology and imply that both rates shall be zero. In the subsequent inquiry, I show that this argument allows for a neat narration of the economic history of the neoliberal age. Furthermore, I explain why under current conditions ultra low interest rates fail to translate into inflation.

High-Frequency Estimates of the Natural Real Rate and Inflation Expectations

We propose a new method of estimating the natural real rate and long-horizon inflation expectations, using nonlinear regressions of survey-based measures of short-term nominal interest rates and inflation expectations on U.S. Treasury yields. We find that the natural real rate was relatively stable during the 1990s and early 2000s, but declined steadily after the global financial crisis, before dropping more sharply to around 0 percent during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Long-horizon inflation expectations declined steadily during the 1990s and have since been relatively stable at close to 2 percent. According to our method, the declines in both the natural real rate and long-horizon inflation expectations are clearly statistically significant. Our estimates are available at whatever frequency we observe bond yields, making them ideal for intraday event-study analysis--for example, we show that the natural real rate and long-horizon inflation expectations are not affected by temporary shocks to the stance of monetary policy.

Effect Firm Size, Profitability and Inventory Intensity Against Effective Tax Rate (ETR)

The effective tax rate is the real rate that apply to the taxpayer's income. This research to find out how much influence firm size, profitability, inventory intensity on the effective tax rate of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2015 to 2019. The types of data used are quantitative data and data sources are secondary data in the form of annual financial reports of manufacturing companies in the reporting period at 2015 to 2019. The sample selection used a purposive sampling method with 53 companies and a total of pool data are 202 data. The data analysis method used is multiple regression analysis. The results of this research indicate that profitability had a positive and significant effect on the effective tax rate, inventory intensity had a significant negative effect on the effective tax rate, while firm size had a negative effect on the effective tax rate.

Asymmetrical Exchange Rates Effect on Indonesia's Trade Balance in Tourism

The main objective of this research is to analyze the effect of depreciation and real exchange rate appreciation on Indonesia's tourism trade balance bilaterally against Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. Such analysis on bilateral relations have never been studied for developing markets countries, namely Indonesia. This study uses a linear ARDL approach and a nonlinear ARDL approach with the dependent variable on the tourism trade balance and the real exchange rate as independent variables. Income, foreign direct investment (FDI), and natural disasters as control variables. The empirical results show that Chinese and Japanese tourists respond positively to the depreciation in the real currency rate of exchange, thereby increasing Indonesia's tourism trade balance. Nonlinear ARDL shows that the relation concerning the real rate of exchange plus the balance of trade is non-symmetrical with respect to China and Japan, while Australia, Malaysia, and Singapore are symmetrical. These results suggest that the government should formulate policies to increase tourist visits from China and Japan. Further empirical results also found a J-curve pattern in Indonesia-China and Indonesia-Japan.

Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields

We build a model of bond yields in an economy with secular changes to inflation, real rate and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that do not influence the long-run real rate and output growth. Before the anchoring of inflation around the mid-1990s, nominal shocks lifted the output gap and inflation. This led to a higher and steeper yield curve because the short rate was expected to peak after several quarters, following declines in the responses of growth and inflation. With inflation anchored, nominal shocks have small impacts on inflation, output and bond yields, mostly via the term premium.