An examination of real interest rates in the United States, Canada, France, and Germany during the recent floating exchange rate period

1996 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajay Patel ◽  
Srinivas R. Akella
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Period ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate

Pressures may prompt leftist backlash in Venezuela

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Protest ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Domestic Fuel

Subject The outlook for political stability. Significance Arrests in an alleged coup plot, deepening tensions with the United States and street skirmishes marked the first anniversary of the February 12, 2014 riots. Nevertheless, there appears to be no recurrence of last year's upheavals, and the government has laid the ground for modest economic adjustments. The announcement of pending changes to the domestic fuel subsidy did not galvanise popular protest while the introduction of a free-floating exchange rate was well received by markets and bondholders. Impacts The muted response to renewed calls for regime change underscores negligible popular enthusiasm for violent exit solutions. US statements critical of the Maduro government further isolate Washington from regional sentiment. Although angered by recent US pronouncements, the Maduro government will persist with informal diplomatic overtures.

scholarly journals Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 113-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt G. Lunsford ◽  
Kenneth D. West
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Standard Theory ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Long Run

We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced-form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force hours growth is positive, which is consistent with overlapping generations models. For another example, the long-run correlation with the proportion of 40 to 64 year-olds in the population is negative. This is consistent with standard theory where middle-aged workers are high savers who drive down real interest rates. In contrast to standard theory, we do not find productivity to be positively correlated with real rates. Most other variables have a mixed relationship with the real rate, with long-run correlations that are statistically or economically large in some samples and by some measures but not in others. (JEL E21, E22, E24, E43, E52)

Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878–1900

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 705-720
Author(s):  
Colin Weiss
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Significant Fall ◽  
Contractionary Devaluation

I identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using US silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations. The Free Silver movement heightened fears the United States would abandon the gold standard and depreciate the dollar. Because Congress, rather than a central bank, set silver coinage policy, silver policy news was likely uncorrelated with economic shocks. Corporate bonds exposed to dollar devaluation returned an additional 1 percent relative to safer bonds when silver risk decreased. Additionally, increased silver coinage risk is associated with an economically significant fall in industrial production.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY ON INDONESIA'S FISHERIES EXPORT TO THE UNITED STATES IN 1989-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Akhmad Jayadi ◽  
Tanto Firmansyah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

Indonesia is a maritime country that has huge potential in fisheries sector. The average of indonesian fisheries production and export volumes always increase every year. This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, government spending, inflation, interest rates, and sanitation policies to Indonesia fishery export to the United States in 1989-2019. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, UN COMTRADE, and the Indonesian Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. This study uses the Error Coerrection Model (ECM) method to examine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. This study explains that in the long-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect, and interest rates have negative effect on export. In short-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect on export. Inflation and sanitation policy do not affect export in the long-term or short-term, while interest rates in the short-term do not affect Indonesian fishery exports. Keywords: Exports, Government Spending, Exchange Rates, Non-Tariff Barriers, Error Correction Model.JEL: F10, F13, C32

Cuba: From “Dollarization” to “Euroization” or “Peso Reconsolidation”?

2002 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-123
Author(s):  
Archibald R. M. Ritter ◽  
Nicholas Rowe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
The United States ◽  
Significant Component ◽  
Cuban Government ◽  
The U.S

AbstractSince its “depenalization” in 1993, the U.S. dollar has become possibly a more significant component of Cuba's money supply than the old peso. What are the alternatives? The euro seems inappropriate, given the inevitability of eventual normalization of relations with the United States. More advantageous would be to restore the Cuban peso, though this would involve unifying the bifurcated economic structure and the dual monetary and exchange rate systems. The Cuban government has yet to announce its plans. This study argues that an appropriate mix of exchange rate, monetary, fiscal, and income or wage and salary policies should support a rehabilitation of the Cuban peso.

Inflation Inequality: Measurement, Causes, and Policy Implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Jaravel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Optimal Taxation ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date

Does inflation vary across the income distribution? This article reviews the growing literature on inflation inequality, describing recent advances and opportunities for further research in four areas. First, new price index theory facilitates the study of inflation inequality. Second, new data show that inflation rates decline with household income in the United States. Accurate measurement requires granular price and expenditure data because of aggregation bias. Third, new evidence quantifies the impacts of innovation and trade on inflation inequality. Contrary to common wisdom, empirical estimates show that the direction of innovation is a significant driver of inflation inequality in the United States, whereas trade has similar price effects across the income distribution. Fourth, inflation inequality and non-homotheticities have important policy implications. They transform cost-benefit analysis, optimal taxation, the effectiveness of stabilization policies, and our understanding of secular macroeconomic trends—including structural change, the decline in the labor share and interest rates, and labor market polarization. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 13 is August 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document