Dynamics of Finite Populations I. The Expected Time to Fixation or Loss and the Probability of Fixation of an Allele in a Haploid Population of Variable Size

Biometrics ◽  
1972 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 373 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. Cook ◽  
R. F. Nassar
2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (01) ◽  
pp. 78-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Möhle

A class of haploid population models with population size N, nonoverlapping generations and exchangeable offspring distribution is considered. Based on an analysis of the discrete ancestral process, we present solutions, algorithms and strong upper bounds for the expected time back to the most recent common ancestor which hold for arbitrary sample size n ∈ {1,…,N}. New insights into the asymptotic behaviour of the expected time back to the most recent common ancestor for large population size are presented relating the results to coalescent theory.


1973 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 215-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Jensen

SUMMARYThe question of what is meant by random fluctuations in selection intensities in a finite population is re-examined. The model presented describes the change in the frequency of a gene in a haploid population of size M. It is assumed that in any generation the adaptive values of A and a are equally likely to be 1 + s: 1 or 1: 1 + s. If s is the selective advantage and x the frequency of gene A, then the first two moments of the change in frequency are found to be m(Δx) = x(1 − x)(1 − 2x) θ/2M andwhere E(s2) = θ/M. The ultimate probability of fixation is computed, showing that variability in selection increases the chance of fixation of a rare gene. A more general form for m(Δx) also is obtained. This form is compared with the equation currently used in describing random fluctuations in selection intensities.


2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Möhle

A class of haploid population models with population size N, nonoverlapping generations and exchangeable offspring distribution is considered. Based on an analysis of the discrete ancestral process, we present solutions, algorithms and strong upper bounds for the expected time back to the most recent common ancestor which hold for arbitrary sample size n ∈ {1,…,N}. New insights into the asymptotic behaviour of the expected time back to the most recent common ancestor for large population size are presented relating the results to coalescent theory.


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