scholarly journals KREDIBILITAS BANK SENTRAL DAN PERSISTENSI INFLASI DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Rachman Hakim ◽  
Munawar Ismail ◽  
Arif Hoetoro
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Inflation Persistence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between the credibility of the central bank and the persistence of inflation is still ambigous as this information is crucial in setting the appropriate policy for combating an inflation problem. The objective of this paper is to measure the rate of inflation persistence and to examine the importance of the credibility of the bank central on the persistence of inflation in Indonesia by using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Hybrid. It is found that the persistence of inflation in the period of full - fledged Inflation Targeting (2006:1-2012:3) lower when compared with the period of Inflation Targeting Lite (2000:1-2005:4). Meanwhile, the credibility of the central bank is significantly influencing the persistence of inflation only when Indonesia was implementing the Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting. When Indonesia was applying the Inflation Targeting Lite, the impact of bank central credibility on persitence inflation was not significant. These findings indicate that the behavior of inflation in Indonesia was backward looking during the periode of Inflation Targeting Lite and becoming forwardlooking after adopting the Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting Policy. This change is related to the increased credibility of the central bank in the full - fledged Inflation Targeting period.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF INTEREST RATES AND PROVINCIAL MONETARY AGGREGATE IN MAINTAINING INFLATION IN INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-286
Author(s):  
Chandra Utama ◽  
Miryam B.L. Wijaya ◽  
Charvin Lim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Inflation is a regional phenomenon hence the use of provincial data might be more appropriateon explaining the relationship between monetary policy and inflation. This paper analyzes the impact of changes in provincial money supply, the policy rate, and the interbank rate on regional inflation, within the framework of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC). This paper employs Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on panel data of 32 provinces from 2005-III to 2014-IV. The estimation result shows that provincial monetary aggregate influence inflation significantly only in Sumatera. Furthermore, the policy fate affects the inflation in Sumatera and Kalimantan-Sulawesi. Using the interbank money rate, the result shows this rate also affect the inflation in most of the region except Kalimantan-Sulawesi. These findings show the price-based policy is more significant on affecting the provincial inflation compared to the provincial money supply.

Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

2008 ◽  
Vol 98 (5) ◽  
pp. 2101-2126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Cogley ◽  
Argia M Sbordone
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Inflation Persistence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Forward Looking

Purely forward-looking versions of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) generate too little inflation persistence. Some authors add ad hoc backward-looking terms to address this shortcoming. We hypothesize that inflation persistence results mainly from variation in the long-run trend component of inflation, which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy. We derive a version of the NKPC that incorporates a time-varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation. When drift in trend inflation is taken into account, a purely forward-looking version of the model fits the data well, and there is no need for backward-looking components. (JEL E12, E31, E52)

scholarly journals KREDIBILITAS BANK SENTRAL DAN PERSISTENSI INFLASI DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-171
Author(s):  
Rachman Hakim ◽  
Munawar Ismail ◽  
Arif Hoetoro
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Forward Looking

Hubungan kredibilitas bank sentral dan persistensi inflasi masih menjadi kontroversi, padahal kepastian hubungan ini sangat penting untuk merumuskan kebijakan anti inflasi yang tepat. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengukur tingkat persistensi inflasi dan menguji dampak kredibilitas bank sentral terhadap persistensi inflasi di Indonesia sejak penerapan inflation targeting framework dengan menggunakan model New Keynesian Phillips Curve Hybrid. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa persistensi inflasi pada periode Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting (2006:1-2012:3) lebih rendah jika dibandingkan dengan periode Inflation Targeting Lite (2000:1-2005:4). Sementara itu, kredibilitas bank sentral berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap persistensi inflasi pada saat Indonesia menerapkan Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting, sedangkan pada saat Indonesia masih menerapkan Inflation Targeting Lite, kredibilitas bank sentral tidak berpengaruh terhadap persistensi inflasi. Ini menunjukkan bahwa perilaku inflasi di Indonesia masih bersifat backward looking pada masa penerapan Inflation Targeting Lite dan berubah menjadi forward looking setelah mengadopsi Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting. Perubahan ini ada kaitannya dengan meningkatnya kredibilitas bank sentral pada periode Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting.

Non-Neutral Money: A Market Process Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
François Facchini
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Market Process ◽  
Credit Expansion ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis article studies the impact of a credit expansion monetary policy on output and unemployment rate. In the introduction the history of the Phillips curve and its interpretation are presented to understand why New Consensus Macroeconomics argues that monetary policy is neutral in long-run i. e. has no effect on economic activity and natural unemployment rate. This New Consensus Macroeconomics supports the independence of the Central Bank, inflation-targeting and the strategy of constrained discretion model and influences strongly the monetary policy of central bank today. The second section critics these three principles of the new consensus. It opposes free-banking to central banking system, and takes the defense of deflation to critic the inflation-targeting. Then the third section deals with long-run neutrality of monetary policy. In an Austrian Business Cycle perspective, there is neutrality of monetary only if the production structure must always return exactly to its level of before the boom. It is improbable, because the monetary policyviatax inflation and artificial variation of real interest rate has a long-run effects on the conditions of financing of entrepreneurial project andin fineall the market process dynamic.

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