Economic growth without welfare. The case of the impact of commodities on the Colombian economy

ABSTRACT Economic growth is not always related to social welfare. Therefore, this paper takes the case of the Colombian economy that has a strong dependence on commodity exploitation to identify the impacts of different commodities such as oil, coffee, coal, and nickel over economic variables. The results show that the increase in prices of commodities generates significant impacts on economic activity in variables such as GDP and investment. Also, there are no significant impacts on variables that provide welfare to individuals as total consumption or the unemployment rate.

A STUDY OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE RUSSIAN LABOR MARKET. ITS CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

The article discusses the problems associated with unemployment in Russia, types of unemployment, causes and consequences

Assessing The Impacts of TRAIN Law on Consumption, Savings, and Unemployment in the Philippines

The Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) policy intends to make the tax system simpler, fairer, and more efficient while also encouraging investments, job creation, and poverty reduction. This tax reform package 1 lowers personal income taxes, removes VAT exemptions, and changes the excise tax on petroleum goods and automobiles, making the tax system more equitable while simultaneously rectifying injustice. This study determines the relationship between the TRAIN Law and the increase in income on the country's consumption, savings, and unemployment rate. Using the multiple regression analysis, this study proves that TRAIN Law and the additional income positively affect consumption. The savings also has a significant positive relationship with the increase in income; however, it has a significant negative relationship with TRAIN Law. This study also shows that while the unemployment rate in the country decreases when income rises, the TRAIN law, on the other hand, relates to the increase in the unemployment rate. The results of this research suggest that the said tax reform has had a considerable beneficial impact on consumption, it has had an adverse influence on the growth rate of savings and unemployment in the country, hence in order to improve the delivery of essential services and better future social and economic results, the government should consider modifying the TRAIN Law and introducing a tax or policy that would stimulate private savings and employment.

EFFECT OF INSUFFICIENT CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION ON THE RATE OF INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA: THE BUHARI’S ADMINISTRATION EXPERIENCE

This study investigated the effect of insufficient currency in circulation on the rate of inflation and unemployment in Nigeria: The Buhari’s Administration Experience; using annual time-series data ranging from 1985 to 2020. In achieving this task, the study was disaggregated into two models: model 1 utilizing Vector Error Correction Model to analyse the relationship between fiscal variables (government total expenditure, government tax revenue, and export) and unemployment rate. It was revealed from the unit root of Augmented Dickey-Fuller test that none of the (fiscal) variables was stationary at level, but they were all stationary after 1st Differencing. This made it necessary for the study to apply Johansen co-integration test which the estimated result indicated 1 co-integration equation as evidenced by Trace statistic. This also, necessitated the application of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and it was observed that it took 61.71% annual speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium from short-run disequilibrium for unemployment rate to return to equilibrium after a shock to fiscal variables. The results further explained that government total expenditure, and government tax revenue, had negative and insignificant impact on unemployment rate respectively, thereby reducing unemployment rate. Similarly, the estimated result indicated that export had positive impact on unemployment thereby increasing unemployment rate within the period under study. Similarly, in analysing monetary variables (money supply, exchange rate and prime lending rate) in model 2: Phillip-Peron unit root test was conducted and it was confirmed that the variables were of mixed order of integration which necessitated the employment of ARDL technique. The ARDL bounds testing result revealed that a long-run relationship existed between monetary variables, and inflation. It was found, in the long-run, that money supply caused inflation rate to rise. More so, the result further revealed that present level of exchange rate decelerated inflation rate in both long-run and short-run. While, it was further observed that the one-year lag and two-year lag of exchange rate increased rate of inflation in both log-run and short-run respectively. The estimated result further revealed that the present level of prime lending rate minimised the rate of inflation in the long-run and short-run. Whereas, similar results were further confirmed in the one-year lag and two-year lag that prime lending rate reduced inflation rate in both log-run and short-run. As a result of these findings, with respect to model 1; the study recommended that government should maintain the level of its expenditure and tax revenue as this reduced unemployment rate, and it should lower trade costs so that demand for labour would increase in the export industry, this would make aggregate unemployment rate to reduce. With respect to model 2; it recommended the adoption of contractionary monetary policy that would minimise the amount of money supply that caused long-run effect on inflation in the system. Furthermore, there should be proper maintenance of fixed exchange rate policy that will make exchange rate regime overcome non-military forces of demand and supply in exchange rate market, this will help maintain low rate of inflation.

أثر الإنفاق العام على البطالة في السودان خلال الفترة (1992-2018)

The study deals with the impact of current and capital public spending on unemployment in Sudan during the period (1992-2018), and the importance of the study, from the fact that it deals with topics of great scientific and practical importance, and the aim of the study to know the nature of public spending in the current and capital aspects, the nature of unemployment, in addition to an alysing the relationship between these variables, and the problem of study was that there is a steady increase in Current and capital public spending during the study period and therefore the unemployment situation in Sudan did not improve, as the study used the descriptive and analytical approach, in addition to the standard method to know the relationship between the variables studied, and the study reached many results, the most important of which is: that there is a expulsionrelation ship with statistical significance Between current spending and the unemployment rate, there is also a morally inverse relationship between capital spending and the unemployment rate. The most important recommendations recommended by the study are to increase capital spending and direct this spending in creating and expanding the scope of productive projects, as well as to spend on vocational training centers and develop them and to transfer the experience of the countries that preceded Sudan in this area, which contributes to reducing the unemployment rate

U.S. Unemployment Rate Prediction by Economic Indices in the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Neural Network, Random Forest, and Generalized Linear Regression

Artificial neural network (ANN) has been showing its superior capability of modeling and prediction. Neural network model is capable of incorporating high dimensional data, and the model is significantly complex statistically. Sometimes, the complexity is treated as a Blackbox. However, due to the model complexity, the model is capable of capture and modeling an extensive number of patterns, and the prediction power is much stronger than traditional statistical models. Random forest algorithm is a combination of classification and regression trees, using bootstrap to randomly train the model from a set of data (called training set) and test the prediction by a testing set. Random forest has high prediction speed, moderate variance, and does not require any rescaling or transformation of the dataset. This study validates the relationship between the U.S. unemployment rate and economic indices during the COVID-19 pandemic and constructs three different predictive modeling for unemployment rate by economic indices through neural network, random forest, and generalized linear regression model.

Role of macroeconomic factors predicting financial performance of commercial banks in Nepal

Purpose: This study analyzes the effect of macroeconomic indicators such as domestic products, interest rate, inflation rate, and unemployment rate on the financial performance of commercial banks in Nepal. Design/Methodology: Five top commercial banks based on the financial performance were selected with stratified sampling, with secondary data of ten years. Hausman test was used to examine the endogeneity issue in the predictor variables and the effect of predicators on financial performance were estimated using OLS estimation (random effect model). Findings: The study result revealed significant influence of macroeconomic factors except the unemployment rate for estimating ROE of commercial banks in Nepal while no significant impact was revealed for ROA. Among the significant variables, GDP contributes more in predicting the financial performance of commercial banks in Nepal. Implication: As the study found significant role of macroeconomic variables to estimate ROE, bank administrators, government officials, and investors can focus in such variables, especially in GDP for competitive financial performance. They need to develop products based on macroeconomic variables. Besides, this study finds and tries to mitigate the gap in findings of previous empirical studies. Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature on macroeconomic determinants predicting financial performance of banks, more specifically in finding the gap in determining ROA and ROE within the country specific issue.

Poverty in the Indonesia-Malaysia border province (case study in West Kalimantan Province)

This study aims to analyze the factors determining poverty in the Indonesia-Malaysia border province of West Kalimantan. Data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) of West Kalimantan Province. From 2010 to 2019, panel data of regencies/cities in West Kalimantan were analyzed quantitatively. The results showed that the Random Equation Model (REM) using the GLS method was more appropriate for examining the impact of poverty in West Kalimantan. The study result found that Gross Regional Domestic Product, unemployment rate, and population density significantly affect poverty.

ANALISIS METODE BAYESIAN PADA KINERJA SISTEM ANTREAN INSTALASI RAWAT JALAN RSUP DR. KARIADI (Studi Kasus: Poliklinik Mata, Poliklinik THT, Laboratorium, dan Pendaftaran)

Indonesian people’s awareness of the importance of health has increased significantly so that it has a positive impact on the development of the health sector in Indonesia. The largest service facility in Central Java Province is RSUP Dr. Kariadi. The number of patients who came for an examination at Dr. Kariadi’s arrival rate is unpredictable. This can cause the service system to be busy and result in queues. The purpose of this study was to find out how the service system in Dr. Kariadi especially eye polyclinic, ENT polyclinic, laboratory, and registration. Queue theory has random arrivals and services. Bayesian method is used to analyze the queue system, that has been running for a long time by combining the prior and likelihood distribution of samples. Prior distribution is obtained from previous research, namely the Poisson distribution. Meanwhile, the likelihood of the sample obtained from the current study is the Poisson distribution and the Negative Binomial distribution. The resulting queue models for the eye polyclinic are (GAMM/BETA/4):(GD/∞/∞), ENT polyclinic (GAMM/GAMM/2):(GD/∞/∞), laboratory (GAMM/GAMM/4):(GD/∞/∞), and registration (GAMM/GAMM/3):(GD/∞/∞). Based on the results of the study, it was found that the patient care system at the eye polyclinic, ENT polyclinic, laboratory, and registration met steady state condition, meaning that the service system was running well. The value of the unemployment rate at the eye polyclinic is 96,36%; ENT polyclinic 31,86%; laboratory 34,87% and registration 32.85%. Thus, at the eye polyclinic, the unemployment rate is greater than the busy level. Meanwhile, in ENT polyclinics, laboratories, and registration is the opposite occurs.