APPLICATION OF HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS ON RESIDUALS: AN EXAMPLE USING CANADIAN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT DATA

2002 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
W. H. LAVERT
2002 ◽  
Vol 94 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1151-1156
Author(s):  
W. H. Laverty ◽  
M. J. Miket ◽  
I. W. Kelly

Laverty, Kelly, Rotton, and Flynn conducted a regression analysis in 1992 on 9 years of automobile accidents in Saskatchewan (a total of 200,545 accidents) to find a small linear trend, season effects, holiday, and day of the week effects. The application of a hidden Markov model to the residuals of this analysis uncovered two states which are likely to be related to the weather. These states can be described as ‘low volatility’ and ‘high volatility’. The ‘low volatility’ state involves low variability compared to the ‘high volatility’ state (occurring during the colder months) during which the largest numbers of accidents occur. It is suggested that hidden Markov models are a useful method for uncovering hidden, underlying states in social science and health-related data.


2015 ◽  
Vol 135 (12) ◽  
pp. 1517-1523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yicheng Jin ◽  
Takuto Sakuma ◽  
Shohei Kato ◽  
Tsutomu Kunitachi

Author(s):  
M. Vidyasagar

This book explores important aspects of Markov and hidden Markov processes and the applications of these ideas to various problems in computational biology. It starts from first principles, so that no previous knowledge of probability is necessary. However, the work is rigorous and mathematical, making it useful to engineers and mathematicians, even those not interested in biological applications. A range of exercises is provided, including drills to familiarize the reader with concepts and more advanced problems that require deep thinking about the theory. Biological applications are taken from post-genomic biology, especially genomics and proteomics. The topics examined include standard material such as the Perron–Frobenius theorem, transient and recurrent states, hitting probabilities and hitting times, maximum likelihood estimation, the Viterbi algorithm, and the Baum–Welch algorithm. The book contains discussions of extremely useful topics not usually seen at the basic level, such as ergodicity of Markov processes, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), information theory, and large deviation theory for both i.i.d and Markov processes. It also presents state-of-the-art realization theory for hidden Markov models. Among biological applications, it offers an in-depth look at the BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Technique) algorithm, including a comprehensive explanation of the underlying theory. Other applications such as profile hidden Markov models are also explored.


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