Interpolation of Quantile Regression to Estimate Driver’s Risk of Traffic Accident Based on Excess Speed

Quantile regression provides a way to estimate a driver’s risk of a traffic accident by means of predicting the percentile of observed distance driven above the legal speed limits over a one year time interval, conditional on some given characteristics such as total distance driven, age, gender, percent of urban zone driving and night time driving. This study proposes an approximation of quantile regression coefficients by interpolating only a few quantile levels, which can be chosen carefully from the unconditional empirical distribution function of the response. Choosing the levels before interpolation improves accuracy. This approximation method is convenient for real-time implementation of risky driving identification and provides a fast approximate calculation of a risk score. We illustrate our results with data on 9614 drivers observed over one year.

Extraction and Analysis of Social Networks Data to Detect Traffic Accidents

Traffic accident detection is an important strategy governments can use to implement policies intended to reduce accidents. They usually use techniques such as image processing, RFID devices, among others. Social network mining has emerged as a low-cost alternative. However, social networks come with several challenges such as informal language and misspellings. This paper proposes a method to extract traffic accident data from Twitter in Spanish. The method consists of four phases. The first phase establishes the data collection mechanisms. The second consists of vectorially representing the messages and classifying them as accidents or non-accidents. The third phase uses named entity recognition techniques to detect the location. In the fourth phase, locations pass through a geocoder that returns their geographic coordinates. This method was applied to Bogota city and the data on Twitter were compared with the official traffic information source; comparisons showed some influence of Twitter on the commercial and industrial area of the city. The results reveal how effective the information on accidents reported on Twitter can be. It should therefore be considered as a source of information that may complement existing detection methods.

Resilience Assessment of a Twin-Tube Motorway Tunnel in the Event of a Traffic Accident or Fire in a Tube

We have developed a traffic simulation model to quantitatively assess the resilience of a twin-tube motorway tunnel in the event of traffic accident or fire occurring within a tube. The motorway section containing the tunnel was investigated for different possible scenarios including its partial or complete closure. The functionality of the road infrastructure, in the case of an accident in one of the two tubes (each tube presents two lanes with unidirectional traffic under ordinary conditions), was assumed to be recovered both by using the remaining undisrupted lane of the tube interested by the disruptive event (only one lane is closed) and reorganizing the traffic flow by utilizing the adjacent tube for bi-directional traffic (both lanes are closed). The effects of an alternative itinerary individualized in the corresponding open road network were also examined. The level of functionality of the system during the period in which the tube is partially or completely closed was computed as the ratio between the average travel time required to reach a given destination from a specific origin before and after the occurrence of the disruptive event. The resilience metrics were assumed to be resilience loss, recovery speed, and resilience index. The best scenario was found to be the partial closure of the tube in contrast to the complete one. However, in order to contain the negative effects on the functionality of the motorway section due to the complete closure of the tube, it is worth highlighting how the traffic by-pass before the entrance portal of the closed tube should be open in a very short time by the tunnel management team to allow for the quick use of the adjacent tube for bi-directional traffic. An additional improvement, with reference exclusively to passenger cars traveling through the adjacent unblocked tube, might be obtained by activating the variable message signs, located at a sufficient distance from the motorway junction before the entrance portal of the closed tube, in order to suggest an alternative route to heavy good vehicles (HGVs) only. Whereas, when the alternative itinerary is used by all vehicles traveling towards the blocked tube (i.e., both passenger cars and HGVs), this redirectioning of the motorway traffic flow was found to be characterized by an excessive travel time, with it therefore not being advisable. The results obtained might be useful as a decision-making support tool aimed at improving the resilience of twin-tube tunnels.

Violation of the use of traffic regulation means as a cause of a traffic accident

This article provides statistical data on the number of road accidents and their consequences (deaths and/or injuries) in all regions of Ukraine in 2021 as compared to the same period in 2020. Regions with a decrease in road traffic accident rates (Zakarpattya region, 9.6% decrease) and their percentage increase (Zhytomyr region, 56.1% increase) are highlighted. Based on the analysis of statistical data, it is estimated that the number of road traffic accidents in the country during this period increased by 19.6%. But as a positive phenomenon, the number of injuries and/or fatalities in these road accidents decreased by 17.2%. The article analyses and gives concrete examples of the use of some legally adopted road traffic control devices in the regional center of Ukraine - Zhytomyr city (traffic lights, road signs and road markings). Shows incidents of their use which are characterized by violations of traffic rules (Sections 8.1., 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.7, Sections 33 "Traffic signs" and 34 "Traffic lanes"), DSTU 2587:2021 "Traffic lanes. General Technical Conditions", DSTU 4100:2021 "Road Safety. Road Signs". At the same time there are situations when road signs are in contradiction, which is categorically unacceptable. It also shows the cases where traffic signs are installed in a shape and design that is not included in traffic regulations and the relevant standard. It was concluded that the use of the above road traffic control devices in violation of the conditions of their installation (application) can lead to misinformation of road users, create additional informational and emotional pressure on them, contribute to increased fatigue, which consequently increases the probability of occurrence of road accidents and increases their importance.