Investor Returns on National Forest Timber Sales

1985 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 69-75
Author(s):  
Robert A. Olsen
1984 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 72-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Buongiorno ◽  
Timothy Young

Abstract A statistical method of appraising timber is presented. It consists of predicting the high bid of a particular timber offering under competitive conditions and adjusting this value to reflect uncertainty and the goals of the selling agency. Using data from the Chequamegon National Forest in northern Wisconsin, it was found that a simple linear model using 14 variables explained 93% of the variance in high bid for competitive sales from 1976 to 1980. This model predicted well post-sample high bids for 1981 and 1982. Based on this model, three possible definitions of appraised value were investigated: (1) predicted high bid, (2) predicted high bid minus one standard error, and (3) predicted high bid minus two standard errors. The consequences of each definition on timber sales, had it been applied in 1981 and 1982, were examined. Definitions (1) and (2) would have increased receipts by 28 and 5%, while decreasing the volume sold by only 5 and 3.6 %, respectively. Definition (3) would have led to the sale of approximately the same volume, but a decrease in receipts of 26%. North. J. Appl. For. 1:72-76, Dec. 1984.


Author(s):  
Scott Lehmann

The USFS often sells National Forest timber at a loss. Although loggers may pay market price for it, the agency absorbs various costs—stand thinning, roads, sale preparation, reforestation, etc. Environmentalists view below-cost sales as evidence that “the Forest Service continues to treat timber as the number-one priority on every acre of land not otherwise designated by Congress.” Appealing to the multiple-use language of NFMA and other legislation, they point out that the forests are not to be managed solely for timber production and that “optimal policy requires a harmonious blend of land uses.” The USFS, however, defends below-cost sales partly in the same terms, claiming that “[t]imber harvest is often an efficient tool that can be used to achieve non-timber objectives and the desired ecological conditions outlined in forest plans.” Its friends in The American Forest and Paper Association suggest, for example, that cutting aspen in Minnesota’s Superior National Forest improves habitat for the small mammals that support the local wolf population and maintain that sales of this low-value timber “provide the most cost-effective means to provide prey for the wolf.” Some natural resource economists also endorse this general position, albeit more cautiously. John KKrutilla and Michael Bowes, for example, claim that “on public land, occasional timber sales below cost and timber management can be justified economically on the basis of the long-term improvement in multiple-use value that may result from harvesting.” Evidently, multiple use is an accommodating ideal. Appeals to “multiple-use values” remind us that the National Forests can produce a variety of things in various “harmonious” combinations; they do not settle what “blend” of outputs is “optimal.” We might be able to do this if we could agree on some standard of productivity that gives sense to claims of the general form “this use of those resources is better than that one.” Since the case for privatizing the National Forests and other public lands rests largely on the claim that their resources would thereby be put to better use, such a standard would also help in assessing the proposal by clarifying what is being claimed for it.


1992 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 97-101
Author(s):  
Paul E. Sendak

Abstract Timber sales data and stumpage prices were analyzed for the Green Mountain National Forest (federal) and the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation (state). In all cases, state stumpage prices were higher on average, but significantly so only for the overall price (volume weighted average sale price per cunit), spruce sawtimber, and hardwood and softwood pulpwood. Differences between mean state and federal prices for sugar maple and yellow birch sawtimber were not significant. Regression analysis was used to examine the differences in overall stumpage price. The results suggest that the difference in sale prices can largely be explained by differences in sales characteristics, most notably timber quality. North. J. Appl. For. 9(3):97-101.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document