scholarly journals On parameter estimation in the bass model by nonlinear least squares fitting the adoption curve

2013 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darija Marković ◽  
Dragan Jukić

The Bass model is one of the most well-known and widely used first-purchase diffusion models in marketing research. Estimation of its parameters has been approached in the literature by various techniques. In this paper, we consider the parameter estimation approach for the Bass model based on nonlinear weighted least squares fitting of its derivative known as the adoption curve. We show that it is possible that the least squares estimate does not exist. As a main result, two theorems on the existence of the least squares estimate are obtained, as well as their generalization in the ls norm (1 ≤ s < ∞). One of them gives necessary and sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of the least squares estimate. Several illustrative numerical examples are given to support the theoretical work.

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110269
Author(s):  
Lang Liang

The Bass model is the most popular model for forecasting the diffusion process of a new product. However, the controlling parameters in it are unknown in practice and need to be determined in advance. Currently, the estimation of the controlling parameters has been approached by various techniques. In this case, a novel optimization-based parameter estimation (OPE) method for the Bass model is proposed in the theoretical framework of system dynamics ( SD). To do this, the SD model of the Bass differential equation is first established and then the corresponding optimization mathematical model is formulated by introducing the controlling parameters as design variable and the discrepancy of the adopter function to the reference value as objective function. Using the VENSIM software, the present SD optimization model is solved, and its effectiveness and accuracy are demonstrated by two examples: one involves the exact solution and another is related to the actual user diffusion problem from Chinese Mobile. The results show that the present OPE method can produce higher predicting accuracy of the controlling parameters than the nonlinear weighted least squares method and the genetic algorithms. Moreover, the reliability interval of the estimated parameters and the goodness of fitting of the optimal results are given as well to further demonstrate the accuracy of the present OPE method.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Phil D. Young ◽  
Joshua D. Patrick ◽  
Dean M. Young

We provide a new, concise derivation of necessary and sufficient conditions for the explicit characterization of the general nonnegative-definite covariance structure V of a general Gauss-Markov model with E(y) and Var(y) such that the best linear unbiased estimator, the weighted least squares estimator, and the least squares estimator of X&beta; are identical. In addition, we derive a representation of the general nonnegative-definite covariance structure V defined above in terms of its Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse.


1998 ◽  
Vol 64 (6) ◽  
pp. 2044-2050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence H. Smith ◽  
Perry L. McCarty ◽  
Peter K. Kitanidis

ABSTRACT A convenient method for evaluation of biochemical reaction rate coefficients and their uncertainties is described. The motivation for developing this method was the complexity of existing statistical methods for analysis of biochemical rate equations, as well as the shortcomings of linear approaches, such as Lineweaver-Burk plots. The nonlinear least-squares method provides accurate estimates of the rate coefficients and their uncertainties from experimental data. Linearized methods that involve inversion of data are unreliable since several important assumptions of linear regression are violated. Furthermore, when linearized methods are used, there is no basis for calculation of the uncertainties in the rate coefficients. Uncertainty estimates are crucial to studies involving comparisons of rates for different organisms or environmental conditions. The spreadsheet method uses weighted least-squares analysis to determine the best-fit values of the rate coefficients for the integrated Monod equation. Although the integrated Monod equation is an implicit expression of substrate concentration, weighted least-squares analysis can be employed to calculate approximate differences in substrate concentration between model predictions and data. An iterative search routine in a spreadsheet program is utilized to search for the best-fit values of the coefficients by minimizing the sum of squared weighted errors. The uncertainties in the best-fit values of the rate coefficients are calculated by an approximate method that can also be implemented in a spreadsheet. The uncertainty method can be used to calculate single-parameter (coefficient) confidence intervals, degrees of correlation between parameters, and joint confidence regions for two or more parameters. Example sets of calculations are presented for acetate utilization by a methanogenic mixed culture and trichloroethylene cometabolism by a methane-oxidizing mixed culture. An additional advantage of application of this method to the integrated Monod equation compared with application of linearized methods is the economy of obtaining rate coefficients from a single batch experiment or a few batch experiments rather than having to obtain large numbers of initial rate measurements. However, when initial rate measurements are used, this method can still be used with greater reliability than linearized approaches.


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