This paper presents an integrated methodology that allows determining the probability of noncompliance for a given wastewater treatment plant. The methodology applies fault-tree analysis, which uses failure probabilities of individual components, to predict the overall system failure probability. The methodology can be divided into two parts : risk identification and risk quantification. In risk identification, the key components in the system are determined by analyzing the contribution of individual component failures toward system failure (i.e., noncompliance). In risk quantification, a fault-tree model is constructed for the particular system, component failure probabilities are estimated, and the fault-tree model is evaluated to determine the probability of occurrence of the top event (i.e., noncompliance). A list can be developed that ranks critical events on the basis of their contributions to the probability of noncompliance. Such a ranking should assist managers to determine which components require most attention for a better performance of the entire system.
A wastewater treatment plant for treating metal-bearing rinse water from an electroplating industry is used as an example to demonstrate the application of this methodology.
Probabilistic and fuzzy fault-tree analyses for modelling cave-in accidents
