Abstract
The aim of the paper is to present the climate change impact on drinking water supply, and to assess the availability of current water resources to meet the increasing demands in climate change conditions, for the city of Skopje. Series of monthly precipitation and temperature data are estimated up to 2050, using recorded data and data for predicted changes of air temperature and precipitation according to climate change scenarios. Climate change impact on drinking water supply is assessed using multi-regression models for the dependence of the water supply data on the main climate parameters: temperature and precipitation. Forecast of future water quantities includes implementation of multi-regression models defined with a set of independent variables: the number of the population for time sets (t, t-1, t-2, t-3), precipitation and air temperature including predicted changes of the data under climate change conditions for the same time sets. Two scenarios are analysed: the first predicts that the number of the population until 2050 remains nearly the same as nowadays, the second predicts an increase of the number of the population at an average annual rate of increase of 0.58%. Results indicate shortage of available water resources for population and industry in climate change scenarios (increase of temperatures and decrease of precipitation) and increase of population.
Climate change: impact, adaptation and vulnerability in the water supply of Kathmandu Valley
