Herbivory and leaf expansion of Cyathea phalerata Mart. (Cyatheaceae) in subtropical Atlantic Forest, southern Brazil

Herbivory is an interaction with great impact on plant communities since relationships between herbivores and plants are fundamental to the distribution and abundance of species over time and space. The aim of this study was to monitor the rate of leaf expansion in the tree fern Cyathea phalerata and evaluate the damage caused by herbivores to leaves of different ages and whether such damage is related to temperature and precipitation. The study was performed in a subtropical Atlantic Forest fragment located in the municipality of Caraá, in the northeast hillside of Rio Grande do Sul state, in southern Brazil. We monitored 24 mature individuals of C. phalerata with croziers in a population of approximately 50 plants. Leaf expansion rate, percentage of damaged leaves and leaf blade consumption rate by herbivory were calculated. Monthly means for temperature and accumulated rainfall were calculated from daily data. Croziers of C. phalerata were found to expand rapidly during the first and second months after emergence (3.98 cm day-1; 2.91 cm day-1, respectively). Damage caused by herbivory was observed in all of the monitored leaves, but none of the plants experienced complete defoliation. The highest percentage (57%) of damaged leaves was recorded at 60 days of monitoring, and also the highest monthly consumption rate of the blade (6.04%) occurred with young, newly-expanded leaves, while this rate remained between 1.50 and 2.21% for mature leaves. Rates of monthly leaf consumption and damaged leaves showed positive and strong relationship with each other and with temperature. The rapid leaf expansion observed for C. phalerata can be considered a phenological strategy to reduce damage to young leaves by shortening the developmental period and accelerating the increase of defenses in mature leaves.

Observed Changes in Agroclimate Metrics Relevant for Specialty Crop Production in California

Every decade, a suite of standardized climatological metrics known as climate normals are updated, providing averages of temperature and precipitation data over the previous 30-year period. Although some of these climate normals are directly applicable to agricultural producers, there are additional agroclimate metrics calculated from meteorological data that provide physiologically relevant information for on-farm management decisions. In this study, we identified a suite of energy-based agroclimate metrics and calculated changes over the two most recent normal periods (1981–2010 and 1991–2020), focusing on specialty crop production regions in California. Observed changes in agroclimate metrics were largely consistent with broader global warming trends. While most metrics showed small changes between the two periods, during the 1991–2020 period, the last spring freeze occurred ~5 days earlier as compared to the 1981-2010 period, contributing to a >6 day longer frost-free period in the Sacramento and Salinas Valleys; likewise an additional 6.4 tropical nights (Tn > 20 °C) occurred in the Coachella Valley during the 1991-2020 period. A complementary trend analysis of the agroclimate metrics over the 1981–2020 period showed significant increases in growing degree days across all agricultural regions, while significant increases in heat exposure were found for the Salinas and Imperial Valleys and over the Central Coast region. Moreover, summer reference evapotranspiration increased approximately 40 mm in California’s Central Valley during 1981–2020, with implications for agricultural water resources. Quantifying the shifts in these agroclimate metrics between the two most recent 30-year normal periods and the accompanying 40-year trends provides context for understanding and communicating around changing climatic baselines and underscores the need for adaptation to meet the challenge that climate change poses to agriculture both in the future and in the present.

Different Radial Growth Responses to Climate Change of Three Dominant Conifer Species in Temperate Forest, Northeastern China

We conducted dendroclimatological study on three dominant conifer tree species, Pinus koraiensis, Larix olgensis, and Picea jezoensis, in northeastern China for a better understanding of climate change impacts on temperate forest growth, by discussing the radial growth relationships of these tree species and projecting their radial growth trends under the future climate change scenarios. Based on the tree-ring samples collected from the upper altitude of Changbai Mountain, ring width chronologies were built to examine the growth relationships, and regression equations were established to project the future growth of the species under future climate change projected by the five general circulation models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although both temperature and precipitation showed varying degrees of relationships with growth of these three tree species, the limiting climate factors were species-specific. The tree-ring growth of P. koraiensis was limited by the summer temperature and precipitation at the end of growth, namely, significant positive correlations with the current July temperature and the previous September precipitation. Growth of L. olgensis was limited by the temperature before growing season, for its chronology was negatively correlated with the current February and previous December temperature (p < 0.05). The climatic conditions before and after growing season seemed to be the limiting factors of P. jezoensis growth, which was negatively correlated with the current February to April temperature and the current September temperature (p < 0.05), and positively correlated with the current August precipitation (p < 0.05). Under the gradual increasing of temperature predicted by the five GCMs and four RCP scenarios, the radial growth of P. Koraiensis will relatively increase, while that of L. olgensis and P. jezoensis will relatively decrease comparing to the base-line period (1981–2010). The specific growth–climate relationships and the future growth trends are species dependent. P. Koraiensis was the more suitable tree species for the forestation to maintain the sustainable forest in Changbai Mountain.

Convolutional conditional neural processes for local climate downscaling

A new model is presented for multisite statistical downscaling of temperature and precipitation using convolutional conditional neural processes (convCNPs). ConvCNPs are a recently developed class of models that allow deep-learning techniques to be applied to off-the-grid spatio-temporal data. In contrast to existing methods that map from low-resolution model output to high-resolution predictions at a discrete set of locations, this model outputs a stochastic process that can be queried at an arbitrary latitude–longitude coordinate. The convCNP model is shown to outperform an ensemble of existing downscaling techniques over Europe for both temperature and precipitation taken from the VALUE intercomparison project. The model also outperforms an approach that uses Gaussian processes to interpolate single-site downscaling models at unseen locations. Importantly, substantial improvement is seen in the representation of extreme precipitation events. These results indicate that the convCNP is a robust downscaling model suitable for generating localised projections for use in climate impact studies.

Temperature sensitivity of termites determines global wood decay rates

Animals, such as termites, have largely been overlooked as global-scale drivers of biogeochemical cycles1,2, despite site-specific findings3,4. Deadwood turnover, an important component of the carbon cycle, is driven by multiple decay agents. Studies have focused on temperate systems5,6, where microbes dominate decay7. Microbial decay is sensitive to temperature, typically doubling per 10°C increase (decay effective Q10 = ~2)8–10. Termites are important decayers in tropical systems3,11–13 and differ from microbes in their population dynamics, dispersal, and substrate discovery14–16, meaning their climate sensitivities also differ. Using a network of 133 sites spanning 6 continents, we report the first global field-based quantification of temperature and precipitation sensitivities for termites and microbes, providing novel understandings of their response to changing climates. Temperature sensitivity of microbial decay was within previous estimates. Termite discovery and consumption were both much more sensitive to temperature (decay effective Q10 = 6.53), leading to striking differences in deadwood turnover in areas with and without termites. Termite impacts were greatest in tropical seasonal forests and savannas and subtropical deserts. With tropicalization17 (i.e., warming shifts to a tropical climate), the termite contribution to global wood decay will increase as more of the earth’s surface becomes accessible to termites.

The impact of environmental barriers on attendance of outdoor and indoor professional sports: the case of the South Korean soccer, baseball and basketball leagues

PurposeThis study sought to determine if environmental barriers (i.e. air pollution, temperature and precipitation) affect outdoor (i.e. soccer and baseball) and indoor (i.e. basketball) professional sport attendance in South Korea.Design/methodology/approachBy including actual air quality, temperature and precipitation data collected from each place where the sporting events take place, this study conducted a regression analysis to examine factors that influenced outdoor and indoor sport attendance.FindingsIn outdoor sports, the estimated results suggested that soccer and baseball attendance were not affected by air pollution. Indoor sport consumers did not change their consumption behaviors in attending sports despite the presence of air pollution. In addition, there was mixed evidence on the effect of weather-related variables on attendance. Average temperature had a positive effect on baseball (outdoor) and basketball (indoor) sport attendance, indicating that the warmer the temperature, the more likely those fans were to attend the games. Average precipitation was negatively associated with outdoor (soccer) sport spectators.Originality/valueThe present study contributes to the sport environment literature by examining the impact of environmental barriers on spectators' behaviors in the context of outdoor and indoor professional sports.

Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change

Ixodes scapularis is a vector of tick-borne diseases. Climate change is frequently invoked as an important cause of geographic expansions of tick-borne diseases. Environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation have an important impact on the geographical distribution of disease vectors. We used the maximum entropy model to project the potential geographic distribution and future trends of I. scapularis. The main climatic variables affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas were screened by the jackknife method. Arc Map 10.5 was used to visualize the projection results to better present the distribution of potential suitable areas. Under climate change scenarios, the potential suitable area of I. scapularis is dynamically changing. The largest suitable area of I. scapularis is under SSP3-7.0 from 2081 to 2100, while the smallest is under SSP5-8.5 from 2081 to 2100, even smaller than the current suitable area. Precipitation in May and September are the main contributing factors affecting the potential suitable areas of I. scapularis. With the opportunity to spread to more potential suitable areas, it is critical to strengthen surveillance to prevent the possible invasion of I. scapularis.

Climate Change Scenarios and the Dragon Fruit Climatic Zoning in Brazil

BACKGROUND:The presente paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4,942 cities collected on the NASA / POWER platform from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization and interpolation of data occurred according to the aptitude classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. RESULTS: Forecasts of increase in temperature indices and reduction in accumulated rainfall were found in all Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction in areas at low risk for the cultivation of pitaya. In the South and Southeast regions, a large part of the areas remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. CONCLUSION:The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas apt for economic production be restricted.

The Life Cycle and Variability of Antarctic Weak Polar Vortex Events

Motivated by the strong Antarctic sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in 2019, a survey on the similar Antarctic weak polar events (WPV) is presented, including their life cycle, dynamics, seasonality, and climatic impacts. The Antarctic WPVs have a frequency of about four events per decade, with the 2002 event being the only major SSW. They show a similar life cycle to the SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere but have a longer duration. They are primarily driven by enhanced upward-propagating wavenumber 1 in the presence of a preconditioned polar stratosphere, i.e., a weaker and more contracted Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex. Antarctic WPVs occur mainly in the austral spring. Their early occurrence is preceded by an easterly anomaly in the middle and upper equatorial stratosphere besides the preconditioned polar stratosphere. The Antarctic WPVs increase the ozone concentration in the polar region and are associated with an advanced seasonal transition of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one week. Their frequency doubles after 2000 and is closely related to the advanced Antarctic stratospheric final warming in recent decades. The WPV-resultant negative phase of the southern annular mode descends to the troposphere and persists for about three months, leading to persistent hemispheric scale temperature and precipitation anomalies.