Measuring food price volatility

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

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Unlearned lessons of food price spikes

Russian Economic Journal ◽

10.33983/0130-9757-2021-3-25-45 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 25-45

Author(s):

R. R. Gumerov

Keyword(s):

Critical Analysis ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Food Products ◽

Executive Branch ◽

Food Price ◽

Food Market ◽

Essential Food ◽

Domestic Food ◽

Price Spikes

The article substantiates the author’s hypothesis of the fundamental reasons for periodic «ups» in prices for essential food products, including the most recent price jump in the second half of 2020. Both the official assessments of the causes of recurring food price surges and the measures taken by the executive branch to stop and prevent them are subjected to critical analysis. Conclusions and fundamental proposals are formulated aimed at eradicating the systemic causes of price volatility in the domestic food market.

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THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

Journal of Business Economics and Management ◽

10.3846/jbem.2018.5208 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 268-287

Author(s):

Corina Saman ◽

Cecilia Alexandri

Keyword(s):

Price Volatility ◽

Agricultural Trade ◽

Food Prices ◽

Food Price ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Positive Shock ◽

Macroeconomic Implications ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

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