Analyzing Dynamic Impacts of Deagriculturalization on CO2 Emissions in Selected Asian Economies: A Tale of Two Shocks

The study investigates the symmetric and asymmetric impact of agriculturalization on environmental quality in sample of selected Asian economies for time period 1991 to 2019. For empirical analysis, the study adopted ARDL-PMG and NARDL-PMG approaches. The long-run findings of ARDL-PMG reveal that agriculturalization tends to significantly improve the quality of environment. The empirical outcomes of NARDL-PMG infer that positive shock in agriculturalization results in enhancing environmental quality, however, the negative shock in agriculturalization (i.e., de-agriculturalization) leads to deterioration of environmental quality in the long-run. The findings demonstrate that agriculturalization improves environmental quality and de-agriculturalization mitigates environmental quality. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the relevant authorities should formulate such reforms in the agriculture sector that controls and reduces carbon emissions in Asian economies.

Does Emigration Hurt the Economy? Evidence from Lithuania

This study explores the economic impact of population emigration with special reference to the case of Lithuania. For this reason, we developed a SVAR model and applied related IRF and FEVD tools using quarterly data for the period of 2001-2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in emigration is related to lower unemployment. It is also found that the increased emigration is linked to higher real wage growth but with a lower confidence interval. Moreover, our estimates suggest that international out-migration increases real GDP growth in the short term, with no significant effects in the long run perspective. Finally, we found that most of the emigrants-to-be were inactive for a long term prior to departure, which offers a new look into the consequences of Lithuanian emigration, suggesting that the economic losses of emigration could be overstated. This study contributes to the knowledge about the impact of emigration on the economy and specifies directions for further studies in the field.

Asymmetric Determinants of CO2 Emissions in China: Do Government Size and Country Size Matter?

CO2 emission reduction is a long-term strategy for China to promote its government and country size. However, this study examines the asymmetric impact of government size and country size on CO2 emissions in China. The study embraces the nonlinear ARDL framework of time series data analysis as proposed by Shin et al. (2014), which disentangles the positive and negative shocks to government size and country size. We find that the response of CO2 emissions to government size and country size positive shocks differs from the negative shocks. Empirical outcomes revealed that a positive shock of government size exerts an insignificant positive on CO2 emissions, while a negative shock of government size reduces CO2 emissions. More specifically, a positive shock of country size mitigates the CO2 emissions of China in long run. Policymakers should redesign the energy and environment policies in the framework of government size and country size.

Can the AD-AS Model Explain the Presence and Persistence of the Underground Economy? Evidence from Italy

The underground economy crucially affects growth and unemployment in both developed and developing countries. Nevertheless, this widespread phenomenon does not appear in the basic model for macroeconomic analysis, namely the Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply (or simply AD-AS) model. Therefore, this paper introduces–for the first time, to the best of our knowledge–the underground sector of the economy into the popular AD-AS model, with the aim of increasing its descriptive power. Indeed, the present theoretical extension of the AD-AS model shows that the underground economy –despite its negative effects on aggregate demand and growth– can trigger a supply-side positive shock that mitigates, at least in the short run, the problem of high unemployment. Empirical evidence from Italy is also provided.

Asymmetric Impact of International Trade on Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions in MINT Nations

The association between carbon emissions and international trade has been examined thoroughly; however, consumption-based carbon emissions, which is adjusted for international trade, have not been studied extensively. Therefore, the present study assesses the asymmetric impact of trade (import and export) and economic growth in consumption-based carbon emissions (CCO2) using the MINT nations (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) as a case study. We applied the Nonlinear ARDL to assess this connection using dataset between 1990 and 2018. The outcomes from the BDS test affirmed the use of nonlinear techniques. Furthermore, the NARDL bounds test confirmed long-run association between CCO2 and exports, imports and economic growth. The outcomes from the NARDL long and short-run estimates disclosed that positive (negative) shocks in imports increase (decrease) CCO2 emissions in all the MINT nations. Moreover, positive (negative) shocks in exports decrease (increase) CCO2 emissions in all the MINT nations. As expected, a positive shock in economic growth triggers CCO2 emissions while a negative shift does not have significant impact on CCO2 emissions in the MINT nations. Furthermore, we applied the Gradual shift causality test and the outcomes disclose that imports and economic growth can predict CCO2 emissions in the MINT nations. The study outcomes have significant policy recommendations for policymakers in the MINT nations.

Economic impact of public R&D: an international perspective

Despite the fact that research and development (R&D) activities are carried out in most countries in public research institutes such as universities and public research organizations, there have been few studies that attempted to estimate the economic impact of such public investment in R&D. In this paper, we analyze the relations between total factor productivity (TFP) and public and private R&D as well as gross domestic product for a set of 17 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries using a vector-error-correction model. We find that for the period 1975–2014, investment in public R&D has had a clearly positive effect on TFP growth in the majority of countries analyzed. In simulations allowing for a permanent positive shock to public R&D, we observe a strong dynamic complementarity between the public and private (domestic) stocks of R&D for several countries. In countries where this complementarity is strong, the TFP effect of extra public R&D investments is also strong. A discriminant analysis shows that in countries with high complementarity between private and public R&D, the share of foreign funding of R&D performed in the business sector combined with a high business R&D intensity tends to be low. At the same time, the share of basic R&D in business R&D combined with a higher public R&D intensity tends to be higher in countries with strong complementarity.

Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign

This paper argues that an important, yet overlooked, determinant of the government spending multiplier is the direction of the fiscal intervention. Regardless of whether we identify government spending shocks from (i) a narrative approach, or (ii) a timing restriction, we find that the contractionary multiplier- the multiplier associated with a negative shock to government spending- is above 1 and largest in times of economic slack. In contrast, the expansionary multiplier- the multiplier associated with a positive shock- is substantially below 1 regardless of the state of the cycle. These results help understand seemingly conflicting results in the literature. A simple theoretical model with incomplete financial markets and downward nominal wage rigidities can rationalize our findings.

Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: empirical evidence from Vietnam

PurposeThis paper aims to uncover the nexus between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam in the period 1995–2012.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a structural vector auto-regressive model of five endogenous variables including inflation, real GDP growth, budget deficit growth, money growth and the interest rate.FindingsIt is found that inflation rose in response to positive shocks to money growth and that budget deficits had no significant impact on money growth and therefore inflation. This empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that fiscal and monetary policies were relatively independent. Money growth significantly decreased in response to a positive shock to inflation; interest rates had no significant effect on inflation but considerably increased in response to positive inflation shocks. This implies that the monetary base was more effective than interest rates in fighting inflation.Originality/valueThis paper sheds light into understanding the link between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam during the high-inflation period 1995–2012. The finding supports the hypothesis that fiscal and monetary policies were relatively independent over the period.

Islamic stock markets and COVID-19-induced shocks: simulations with global VAR approach

Purpose This paper aims to make the first attempt to study the transmission of COVID-19 pandemic-induced shocks to the global Islamic stock markets in the midst of the overall macroeconomic environment and cross-country trade linkages. This is made possible by constructing a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model and with it the authors arrive at noteworthy conclusions. Design/methodology/approach The paper estimates both fixed and time-varying weights GVAR models for 15 Islamic stock markets with 5,000 bootstrap replications and reports impulse response functions. It simulates four shocks associated with the pandemic: first, a standard error negative shock to oil price; second, a standard error negative shock to the global Islamic stock markets; third, a standard error positive shock to equity-based uncertainty index; and fourth, a standard error negative shock to economic activity (inflation). Findings The paper shows that the pandemic engenders immediate negative impacts on the Islamic stock markets with the biggest impacts borne by the USA and China and the least by markets in the Middle East. The study documents the magnitudes of the responses to the shocks and shows that the impacts of the pandemic will take about 20 months to wither completely. Originality/value The findings throw up diversification benefits for investors toward the UAE, Oman, Bahrain and other Middle East markets especially during crisis. It further reveals the need for counter-cyclical measures in all countries to curtail the negative impacts of the pandemic which could linger for up to 20 months.