An optimal transient growth analysis is compared with experimental observation for the steady flow through an abrupt, axisymmetric stenosis of varying stenosis degree. Across the stenosis range, a localized sinuous convective shear-layer instability type is predicted to dominate. A comparison of the shape and development of the optimal modes is made with experimental dye visualizations. The presence of the same sinuous-type disturbance immediately upstream of the highly chaotic region observed in the experimental flow is consistent with the optimal growth predictions. This, together with the fact that the flow is unstable globally only at much higher Reynolds numbers, suggests bypass transition.