scholarly journals On the Influence of Enso And IOD on Rainfall Variability Over The Musi Basin, South Sumatra

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
Wijaya Mardiansyah ◽  
Dedi Setiabudidaya ◽  
M. Yusup Nur Khakim ◽  
Indra Yustian ◽  
Zulkifli Dahlan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Indonesian Seas ◽  
Sst Anomalies

The southern Sumatera region experiences one rainy season and one dry season in a year associated with seasonal change in monsoonal winds. The peak of rainy season is occurring in November-December-January during the northwest monsoon season, while the dry season comes in June-July-August during the southeast monsoon season. This study is designed to evaluate possible influence of the coupled ocean-atmospheric modes in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the rainfall variability over the catchment area of the Music Basin, South Sumatera. The ENSO and IOD occurrences were reflected by the variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. During El Niño and/or positive IOD episode, negative SST anomalies cover the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific including the Indonesian seas, leading to suppress convective activities that result in reduce precipitation over the maritime continent. The situation is reversed during La Niña and/or negative IOD event. The results revealed that the high topography area (e.g. Bukit Barisan) was shown to be instrumental to the pattern of rainfall variability. During the 2010 negative IOD co-occurring with La Niña event, the rainfall was significantly increase over the region. This excess rainfall was associated with warm SST anomaly over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the Indonesian seas. On the other hand, extreme drought event tends to occur during the 2015 positive IOD simultaneously with the occurrence of the El Niño events Investigation on the SST patterns revealed that cold SST anomalies covered the Indonesian seas during the peak phase of the 2015 positive IOD and El Niño event.

scholarly journals Possible Impact of the Indian Ocean SST on the Northern Hemisphere Circulation during El Niño*

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 3164-3189 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Annamalai ◽  
H. Okajima ◽  
M. Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), differing in numerics and physical parameterizations, are employed to test the hypothesis that El Niño–induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean impact considerably the Northern Hemisphere extratropical circulation anomalies during boreal winter [January–March +1 (JFM +1)] of El Niño years. The hypothesis grew out of recent findings that ocean dynamics influence SST variations over the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO), and these in turn impact local precipitation. A set of ensemble simulations with the AGCMs was carried out to assess the combined and individual effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies on the extratropical circulation. To elucidate the dynamics responsible for the teleconnection, solutions were sought from a linear version of one of the AGCMs. Both AGCMs demonstrate that the observed precipitation anomalies over the SWIO are determined by local SST anomalies. Analysis of the circulation response shows that over the Pacific–North American (PNA) region, the 500-hPa height anomalies, forced by Indian Ocean SST anomalies, oppose and destructively interfere with those forced by tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The model results validated with reanalysis data show that compared to the runs where only the tropical Pacific SST anomalies are specified, the root-mean-square error of the height anomalies over the PNA region is significantly reduced in runs in which the SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean are prescribed in addition to those in the tropical Pacific. Among the ensemble members, both precipitation anomalies over the SWIO and the 500-hPa height over the PNA region show high potential predictability. The solutions from the linear model indicate that the Rossby wave packets involved in setting up the teleconnection between the SWIO and the PNA region have a propagation path that is quite different from the classical El Niño–PNA linkage. The results of idealized experiments indicate that the Northern Hemisphere extratropical response to Indian Ocean SST anomalies is significant and the effect of this response needs to be considered in understanding the PNA pattern during El Niño years. The results presented herein suggest that the tropical Indian Ocean plays an active role in climate variability and that accurate observation of SST there is of urgent need.

scholarly journals Potential Impact of the Tropical Indian Ocean–Indonesian Seas on El Niño Characteristics*

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (14) ◽  
pp. 3933-3952 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Annamalai ◽  
Shinichiro Kida ◽  
Jan Hafner
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Abrupt Increase ◽  
Indonesian Seas ◽  
Class 1 ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Diagnostics performed with twentieth-century (1861–2000) ensemble integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1) suggest that, during the developing phase, El Niño events that co-occur with the Indian Ocean Dipole Zonal Mode (IODZM; class 1) are stronger than those without (class 2). Also, during class 1 events coherent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies develop in the Indonesian seas that closely follow the life cycle of IODZM. This study investigates the effect of these regional SST anomalies (equatorial Indian Ocean and Indonesian seas) on the amplitude of the developing El Niño. An examination of class 1 minus class 2 composites suggests two conditions that could lead to a strong El Niño in class 1 events: (i) during January, ocean–atmosphere conditions internal to the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the development of a stronger El Niño and (ii) during May–June, coinciding with the development of regional SST anomalies, an abrupt increase in westerly wind anomalies is noticeable over the equatorial western Pacific with a subsequent increase in thermocline and SST anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific. This paper posits the hypothesis that, under favorable conditions in the equatorial Pacific, regional SST anomalies may enable the development of a stronger El Niño. Owing to a wealth of feedbacks in CM2.1, solutions from a linear atmosphere model forced with May–June anomalous precipitation and anomalous SST from selected areas over the equatorial Indo-Pacific are examined. Consistent with our earlier study, the net Kelvin wave response to contrasting tropical Indian Ocean heating anomalies cancels over the equatorial western Pacific. In contrast, Indonesian seas SST anomalies account for about 60%–80% of the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific and also induce anomalous precipitation over the equatorial central Pacific. It is argued that the feedback between the precipitation and circulation anomalies results in an abrupt increase in zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific. Encouraged by these results, the authors further examined the processes that cause cold SST anomalies over the Indonesian seas using an ocean model. Sensitivity experiments suggest that local wind anomalies, through stronger surface heat loss and evaporation, and subsurface upwelling are the primary causes. The present results imply that in coupled models, a proper representation of regional air–sea interactions over the equatorial Indo-Pacific warm pool may be important to understand and predict the amplitude of El Niño.

scholarly journals Indo-Western Pacific Climate Variability: ENSO Forcing and Internal Dynamics in a Tropical Pacific Pacemaker Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 10123-10139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan-Yang Wang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Yu Kosaka
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Sst Anomalies

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in boreal winter but its impact on Indo-western Pacific climate persists for another two seasons. Key ocean–atmosphere interaction processes for the ENSO effect are investigated using the Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment with a coupled general circulation model, where tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are restored to follow observations while the atmosphere and oceans are fully coupled elsewhere. The POGA shows skills in simulating the ENSO-forced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern over the northwestern tropical Pacific in the post–El Niño spring and summer. The 10-member POGA ensemble allows decomposing Indo-western Pacific variability into the ENSO forced and ENSO-unrelated (internal) components. Internal variability is comparable to the ENSO forcing in magnitude and independent of ENSO amplitude and phase. Random internal variability causes apparent decadal modulations of ENSO correlations over the Indo-western Pacific, which are high during epochs of high ENSO variance. This is broadly consistent with instrumental observations over the past 130 years as documented in recent studies. Internal variability features a sea level pressure pattern that extends into the north Indian Ocean and is associated with coherent SST anomalies from the Arabian Sea to the western Pacific, suggestive of ocean–atmosphere coupling.

Mechanisms for the Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Part II: Regional Processes

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2937-2960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bohua Huang ◽  
J. Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract To understand the mechanisms of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, two long-term simulations are conducted using a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM—one with active air–sea coupling over the global ocean and the other with regional coupling restricted within the Indian Ocean to the north of 30°S while the climatological monthly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed in the uncoupled oceans to drive the atmospheric circulation. The major spatial patterns of the observed upper-ocean heat content and SST anomalies can be reproduced realistically by both simulations, suggesting that they are determined by intrinsic coupled processes within the Indian Ocean. In both simulations, the interannual variability in the Indian Ocean is dominated by a tropical mode and a subtropical mode. The tropical mode is characterized by a coupled feedback among thermocline depth, zonal SST gradient, and wind anomalies over the equatorial and southern tropical Indian Ocean, which is strongest in boreal fall and winter. The tropical mode simulated by the global coupled model reproduces the main observational features, including a seasonal connection to the model El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO influence, however, is weaker than that in a set of ensemble simulations described in Part I of this study, where the observed SST anomalies for 1950–98 are prescribed outside the Indian Ocean. Combining with the results from Part I of this study, it is concluded that ENSO can modulate the temporal variability of the tropical mode through atmospheric teleconnection. Its influence depends on the ENSO strength and duration. The stronger and more persistent El Niño events in the observations extend the life span of the anomalous events in the tropical Indian Ocean significantly. In the regional coupled simulation, the tropical mode is still active, but its dominant period is shifted away from that of ENSO. In the absence of ENSO forcing, the tropical mode is mainly stimulated by an anomalous atmospheric direct thermal cell forced by the fluctuations of the northwestern Pacific monsoon. The subtropical mode is characterized by an east–west dipole pattern of the SST anomalies in the southern subtropical Indian Ocean, which is strongest in austral fall. The SST anomalies are initially forced by surface heat flux anomalies caused by the anomalous southeast trade wind in the subtropical ocean during austral summer. The trade wind anomalies are in turn associated with extratropical variations from the southern annular mode. A thermodynamic air–sea feedback strengthens these subtropical anomalies quickly in austral fall and extends their remnants into the tropical ocean in austral winter. In the simulations, this subtropical variability is independent of ENSO.

scholarly journals Links between Tropical Pacific SST and Cholera Incidence in Bangladesh: Role of the Western Tropical and Central Extratropical Pacific

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1641-1660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Cash ◽  
Xavier Rodó ◽  
James L. Kinter
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Global Response ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Recent studies arising from both statistical analysis and dynamical disease models demonstrate a link between the incidence of cholera, a paradigmatic waterborne bacterial illness endemic to Bangladesh, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The physical significance of this relationship was investigated by examining links between the regional climate of Bangladesh and western Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with ENSO using a pacemaker configuration of the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies atmospheric general circulation model. The global SST response to ENSO SST anomalies in the western Pacific alone is found to be relatively weak and unrealistic when compared to observations, indicating that the global response to ENSO is driven primarily by anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Despite the weak global response to western Pacific SST anomalies, however, a signal is found in summer rainfall over India and Bangladesh. Specifically, reduced rainfall typically follows winter El Niño events. In the absence of warm SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific, cold anomalies in the western Pacific produce a La Niña–like response in the model circulation. Cold SST anomalies suppress convection over the western Pacific. Large-scale convergence shifts into the eastern Indian Ocean and modifies the summer monsoon circulation over India and Bangladesh. The probabilistic relationship between Bangladesh rainfall and SST is also explored using a nonparametric statistical technique. Decreased rainfall is strongly associated with cold SST in the western Pacific, while associations between SST and enhanced rainfall are substantially weaker. Also found are strong associations between rainfall and SST in the Indian Ocean in the absence of differences in forcing from the western Pacific. It thus appears that the Indian Ocean may represent an independent source of predictability for the monsoon and cholera risk. Likewise, under certain circumstances, the western Pacific may also exert a significant influence on Bangladesh rainfall and cholera risk.

scholarly journals Disentangling the Impact of ENSO and Indian Ocean Variability on the Regional Climate of Bangladesh: Implications for Cholera Risk

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 2817-2831 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Cash ◽  
Xavier Rodó ◽  
James L. Kinter ◽  
Md Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Eastern Tropical Pacific ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
El Nino Events ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Recent studies arising from both statistical analysis and dynamical disease models indicate that there is a link between the incidence of cholera, a paradigmatic waterborne bacterial illness endemic to Bangladesh, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Cholera incidence typically increases following boreal winter El Niño events for the period 1973–2001. Observational and model analyses find that Bangladesh summer rainfall is enhanced following winter El Niño events, providing a plausible physical link between El Niño and cholera incidence. However, rainfall and cholera incidence do not increase following every winter El Niño event. Substantial variations in Bangladesh precipitation also occur in simulations in which identical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are prescribed in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Bangladesh summer precipitation is thus not uniquely determined by forcing from the tropical Pacific, with significant implications for predictions of cholera risk. Nonparametric statistical analysis is used to identify regions of SST anomalies associated with variations in Bangladesh rainfall in an ensemble of pacemaker simulations. The authors find that differences in the response of Bangladesh summer precipitation to winter El Niño events are strongly associated with the persistence of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific. Also there are significant differences in the SST patterns associated with positive and negative Bangladesh rainfall anomalies, indicating that the response is not fully linear. SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean also modulate the influence of the tropical Pacific, with colder Indian Ocean SST tending to enhance Bangladesh precipitation relative to warm Indian Ocean SST for identical conditions in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This influence is not fully linear. Forecasts of Bangladesh rainfall and cholera risk may thus be improved by considering the Niño-3 and Niño-4 indices separately, rather than the Niño-3.4 index alone. Additional skill may also be gained by incorporating information on the southeast Indian Ocean and by updating the forecast with information on the evolution of the SST anomalies into spring.

Why Was the Indian Ocean Dipole Weak in the Context of the Extreme El Niño in 2015?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4755-4761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Liu ◽  
Guang Yang ◽  
Xia Zhao ◽  
Lin Feng ◽  
Guoqing Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Extreme El Niño

The Indian Ocean witnessed a weak positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event from the boreal summer to autumn in 2015, while an extreme El Niño occurred over the tropical Pacific. This was different from the case in 1997/98, when an extreme El Niño and the strongest IOD took place simultaneously. The analysis here suggests that the unique sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern of El Niño in 2015 might have contributed to the weak IOD that year. El Niño in 2015 had a complex SSTA pattern, with positive warming over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Such a combination of the classic El Niño (also known as cold-tongue El Niño) and the recently identified central Pacific El Niño (also known as El Niño Modoki II) had opposite remote influences on the tropical Indian Ocean. The classic El Niño reduced the strength of the Walker circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean, but this was offset by El Niño Modoki II. This study points out that the IOD can be strongly modulated by combined El Niño types in some circumstances, as in 2015.

scholarly journals Differential Influences of Teleconnections from the Indian and Pacific Oceans on Rainfall Variability in Southeast Asia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 886
Author(s):  
Abdul Azim Amirudin ◽  
Ester Salimun ◽  
Fredolin Tangang ◽  
Liew Juneng ◽  
Muhamad Zuhairi
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
June July August ◽  
Rainfall Patterns ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Individual ◽  
June July

This study investigates the individual and combined impacts of El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the Southeast Asia (SEA) rainfall variability. Using composite and partial correlation techniques, it is shown that both inter-annual events have individually distinct impacts on the SEA rainfall anomaly distribution. The results showed that the impacts of the co-occurrence of El Niño and IOD events are significant compared to the individual effects of pure El Niño or pure IOD. During June-July-August and September-October-November, the individual impacts of the pure El Niño and IOD events are similar but less significant. Both events caused negative impacts over the southern part of SEA during June-July-August (JJA) and propagated northeastward/eastward during September-October-November (SON). Thus, there are significant negative impacts over the southern part of SEA during the co-occurrence of both events. The differential impacts on the anomalous rainfall patterns are due to the changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) surrounding the region. Additionally, the differences are also related to the anomalous regional atmospheric circulations that interact with the regional SST. The anomalous Walker circulation that connects the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean also plays a significant role in determining the regional anomalous rainfall patterns.

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